Gale Warning 592, NWS Anchorage, AK

943 
FZAK62 PAFC 300000
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
300 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-301445-
300 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 967 mb low at 55N 161W moves into the Gulf Thu afternoon. A
front enters the western Bering tonight and reaches the eastern 
Bering by Fri afternoon. The associated 965 mb low enters the 
western Bering Fri afternoon at 58N 175E.

$$

PKZ411-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
300 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers and 
snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
300 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
300 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-301445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
300 PM AKST Wed Nov 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 9 to 
17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

207 
FZAK62 PAFC 301233
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010245-
333 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 mb low near 54N 156W will continue to weaken and move away
from the area today. A front over the western Bering will move
east and reach the southwest coast by Fri afternoon. An 
associated 962 mb low near 52N 162E will move along the Kamchatka
coast to 60N 174E at 966 mb early Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-010245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain showers and
widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Widespread snow
and rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Widespread snow and
rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Widespread rain and
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
and snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Widespread rain and
snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 to 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

848 
FZAK62 PAFC 010002
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011430-
302 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the central Bering reaches the eastern Bering Fri
afternoon. A 963 mb low at 55N 167E moves over Kamchatka and
weakens Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
302 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
302 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
302 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
302 PM AKST Thu Nov 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

420 
FZAK62 PAFC 011238
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020215-
338 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the eastern Bering will move inland over Southwest 
AK this afternoon. A 961 mb low at 57N 170E will move over 
Kamchatka and weaken to 974 mb by late Sat night. A strong North 
Pacific low will move to near 51N 161W at 970 mb early Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-020215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Widespread snow and
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Widespread rain
and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Widespread snow
and rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

537 
FZAK62 PAFC 020013
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021345-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front in the eastern Bering will dissipate through Sat morning.
A North Pacific low will move to 50N 161W at 979 mb by Sun 
morning then it will move to 55N 157W at 965 mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Rain showers with 
snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 PM AKST Fri Dec 1 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

383 
FZAK62 PAFC 021248
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030245-
348 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low at 58N 173E moves to 59N 169E at 982 mb by Mon morning.
A 974 mb low forms near 56N 172E Sun morning and moves to 56N 175W 
at 982 mb for Mon morning. A 996 mb North Pacific low tracks to 56N 
157W at 965 mb by Sun afternoon, then tracks inland over the 
southwest Mainland overnight Sun. The associated front tracks over 
the eastern Bering and Aleutians through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-030245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind up to 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKST Sat Dec 2 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1154 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017

.UPDATE...

Made a quick update to zone 185 in the Aleutians to mention warning
level winds confined to the Nikolski area. Further east, winds were
trended down in the Dutch Harbor area as this region remains a
little displaced to the east of the stronger cold air advection,
where better mixing and downward momentum transfer will take place.
Although some increase in winds here are still expected in the next
few hours, they should remain below headline criteria.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main center of action continues to revolve around the Bering
Sea as another powerful low (approximately 952 mb) lifts north
into the Southern Bering Sea from the Alaska Peninsula. Near
hurricane force gusts continue to channel through parts of the
central Aleutians with a large area of storm force marine winds
impacting parts of the Aleutian Chain. Near Southcentral, there is
a weak upper trough moving eastward toward the ALCAN, with this
feature supporting an area of rain and snow showers over Prince
William Sound and the local surrounding mountains.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
general synoptic pattern through Friday before the details of
another front moving toward Southcentral become murky. However, in
the short range, the models are still struggling with a strong low
moving toward Bristol Bay, with the GFS being a weaker outlier
compared to current observations and the Canadian and ECMWF
models. Therefore the GFS was given less consideration as the low
retrogrades west with a second maximum of strong winds expected
to impact Unalaska. For Southcentral, a blend to higher resolution
models was favored to capture local winds and heavier
precipitation along the coastal mountains where heavy snow is
likely as the front moves inland along the North Gulf Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light north winds will persist through
tonight. Chances for scattered snow showers will increase at the
terminal after 15z Wednesday as a front moves over the north Gulf
coast, with cigs lowering to 5000 ft or lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Wednesday
and Thursday)...
Active weather is on its way back to mainland Southcentral Alaska
after a break today. A front is working its way northward across
the Gulf, with the leading cloudcover heading towards Anchorage
and points north. Strong east to southeast flow associated with
the front will keep Anchorage, the western Kenai Peninsula, and
the Matanuska Valley largely dry due to downsloping. But for
coastal locations, it will bring about another round of
occasionally heavy precipitation. Temperatures will warm with the
front so most coastal locations, including Seward and Homer, will
at least mix with rain as the front passes by. In addition to the
precipitation, winds along the north Gulf Coast will briefly get
to gale force with a barrier jet that develops ahead of the front.
As the front pushes inland and rapidly weakens, the winds will
diminish in a hurry early Wednesday morning.

Behind the front on Wednesday, a brief period of southerly wind
flow behind the front will allow temperatures at the coast to get
into the mid 30s on Wednesday, keeping accumulations from any
precipitation during much of the day minimal. Aloft, colder air
races in behind the front, causing atmospheric instability to
rapidly increase. That means the precipitation will become much
more showery and scattered to numerous in coverage. Thus, coastal
communities along the north Gulf Coast and Kenai Peninsula can
expect the precipitation to change back over to all snow Wednesday
afternoon and overnight as freezing levels come back down. That
being said, when it is precipitating, the showers will very
possibly feature occasionally heavy snow as the falling snow
locally lowers snow levels.

This same pattern will continue into Wednesday night, with
additional waves of moisture moving into the north Gulf Coast,
particularly the Kenai Peninsula, which will be closer to the
center of the low over Southwest Alaska. Thus, in the Seward area
in particular, snow showers will continue overnight, possibly
becoming heavy at times with a "shovellable" accumulation
expected by Thursday morning. Fortunately, due to the convective
nature of the snowfall, any periods of heavy snow should only be
brief as the parent snow shower passes by.

The parent low causing all of the rain and snow across
Southcentral through Wednesday night will begin quickly moving
southeast into the North Pacific by Thursday, resulting in
improving conditions area-wide during the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure across the eastern Bering slowly meanders west
tonight then dives south across the Eastern Aleutians Wednesday
morning. Strong gusty easterly flow ahead of this low becomes
northerly on Wednesday as it moves into the North Pacific. Light
precipitation continues to develop across the region through late
Thursday as the Bering storm system sends short waves along its
periphery on its slow southerly track across the North Pacific.
Only minor accumulations are expected with only weak support at
the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong winds are expected to increase overnight across the Bering
with the Eastern Aleutians in the path for the gustiest flow
through Wednesday morning. The storm system spinning across the
southern Bering sends a strong short wave south across the central
waters this evening. At the same time, a ridge across the
Northern Pacific advances toward the western Bering. The pressure
gradient forcing between these two systems along with cold air
advection on the backside of the low supports stronger flow which
tapers down briefly as transient short wave ridging crosses the
western Aleutians Wednesday night. A high wind warning was issued
with the afternoon package for the Eastern Aleutians for tonight
as the powerful storm system dives south. The next front follows
quickly into the Western Chain Thursday morning. This storm system
pushes the frontal boundary across to the central Bering by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast beginning with Thursday night starts with a
low over the western Bering that will push its front over
southwest Alaska on Friday and then Southcentral Alaska Saturday.
After that the forecast gets messy. Models are having a difficult
time handling a North Pacific low that will track toward the
Alaska Peninsula Sunday.

Some models are bringing it east toward various locations around
the Gulf while the majority bring it into the eastern Bering. The
timing of this low has also been inconsistent as well as its
strength. Some models have it dropping into the 950 mb range just
before it reaches the Alaska Peninsula while others are higher.
Uncertainty with this system is high.

By late Monday into Tuesday there are large differences with the
operational model runs leading toward an ensemble mean approach
for much of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 185.
MARINE...Storm Warning 170 172>175.
 Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 139 150 155 160 165 171 176>178 180.

&&

UPDATE...PD
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DK