Gale Warning 584, NWS Anchorage, AK

187 
FZAK62 PAFC 240034
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-241400-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 986 mb low at 55N 157W swings across the Northern Pacific 
through Sat afternoon. High pressure moves to the Eastern Bering 
by Sat morning. A 977 mb Russian Far East low extends a front 
over the Bering to a 984 mb low near 56N 171W and a 987 mb low 
around 50N 178W that form Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-241400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-241400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-241400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft subsiding to 8 to
12 ft after midnight.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-241400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

505 
FZAK62 PAFC 241235
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-250215-
335 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
High pressure over the central Aleutians moves southeast as a 
front approaches the western Bering Sea Sat morning. A 991 mb 
North Pacific low moves to 49N 172E by Sat morning then moves to 
56N 171W intensifying to 946 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-250215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-250215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-250215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-250215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

676 
FZAK62 PAFC 250026
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251400-
326 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 mb Russian Far East low extends a front over the Bering 
through Sat morning. The low moves into the Arctic with the 
trailing front pushing across the Bering for Sun afternoon. A 
North Pacific low slips along the front to 58N 169W and 
intensifies to 944 mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-251400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NW 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 28 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft building to 16 to
31 ft after midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 27 to 42 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The frontal system over the Bering is beginning to spread snowfall
along with gusty southeasterly winds into the Kuskokwim Delta and
Western Bristol Bay. This front is part of a much larger system
that is taking up most of the Bering Sea, with a good supply of
cold/dry air advecting into the low allowing for continued
intensification as it moves onshore. This surge of cold/dry air
also helping to bring gale force winds throughout the Central
Bering, which are expected to increase to widespread storm force
as it moves into the Eastern Bering/Aleutians. Over the Gulf and
Southcentral, conditions are much quieter than the Bering with a
brief break from the active weather in a continued progressive
pattern. This will begin to break down late tonight as the frontal
moving through the Southwest Mainland produces a triple point low
in the gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in very good synoptic agreement in the early
term before starting to break down early Thursday with the
positioning and intensity of the triple point low in the Western
Gulf. In particular, the GFS continues to be both the deepest and
furthest west with that low, and was generally ignored today in
favor of the further east/weaker solutions of the NAM and EC.
These differences then become larger on Friday with large
differences in how quick the low will depart the southern Gulf, the
NAM being the slowest. The speed that this low departs the Gulf
will weigh heavily in how strong winds over the North Gulf Coast
and will need to be monitored as trends towards the NAM position
will produce stronger winds than currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light winds will continue today, before
ceilings near 5000 ft move into the area beginning late tonight.
There may also be a few flakes as ceilings drop on Thursday
morning, however these are expected be very light with VFR
conditions expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

Dry weather prevails across the southern mainland through Friday
evening as an offshore pattern persists. Active weather across the
Southwest mainland brings a front across to the western gulf
tonight spreading precipitation across much of the gulf including
the Kenai and Kodiak Island through Thursday morning. The front
weakens as it slides across the central waters Friday afternoon
then remains stationary and diminishes heading into Saturday
morning.

The main concern surrounds offshore winds for typical gusty areas
through channeled terrain. As the surface low moves into the gulf
late Thursday night a ridge shifts from the Yukon Territory to
the central interior. The ridge forces a cold dense air mass
toward the coast which actively increases winds overnight Thursday
through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Gusty winds and widespread snow associated with the Bering storm
will continue to impact portions of southwest Alaska. At times,
the models ping into moderate to heavy snowfall. Periods of
blowing snow and white out conditions are also possible tonight
and tomorrow morning. The frontal boundary will move inland and
stall near Bethel, then slowly decay. Cold and drier air will be
steered into the region Thursday night. Isolated showers will
linger over the region through the end of the period but
significant accumulations not expected after Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The forecast period commences with an unsettled pattern in place,
complete with wintry precipitation, strong winds and rough seas.
The latest scatterometer pass has the Bering front east of the
Pribilof Islands this afternoon. Behind the low center, widespread
northwest flow and strong cold air advection. A tight pressure
gradient will continue to bring strong winds to much of the
Bering and the Central/Eastern Aleutians. The winds will gradually
diminish for all areas from west to east for the Bering and the
Aleutian archipelago by Friday morning. Looking upstream, a dome
of high pressure will build into the Western Aleutians early
Thursday with the ridge axis east of Atka by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term portion of the forecast begins Friday night with a
familiar outflow wind pattern in place across much of southern
Alaska, with a ridge over the Bering Sea and a longwave trough
extending along the Alcan border into the eastern Gulf. This will
keep most of the area cold and dry well into the weekend before
the ridge breaks down and the pattern begins to shift once again
Sunday into early next week.

Forecast confidence quickly diminishes by the beginning of next
week as a deep trough over eastern Russia sends a series of
shortwaves into the Bering Sea. Models continue to show poor
agreement with respect to the evolution of these waves and
subsequent development and placement of surface features. It
appears that a deep low will rapidly intensify over the Bering
Saturday night and then move to the general vicinity of the Alaska
Peninsula by late Sunday, sending a front near the southwest
coast and bringing the threat for another round of mixed
precipitation and gusty winds to portions of Southwest AK. An even
deeper low then looks to approach the Aleutian chain on Monday,
bringing stormy conditions to the southern Bering with the details
largely dependent upon the track of the low through the middle of
the week. Guidance is also hinting at another system moving into
the western Gulf in the Monday/Tuesday time frame, but confidence
is low at this time as specific solutions remain all over the map.
Generally speaking, those in southern Alaska can expect chances
for precipitation to increase through the first half of next week
(especially along the coast) as temperatures rebound closer to
seasonal normal values.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...CFW 155 161, NPW 181 185 195, WSW 155 161.
MARINE...Storms 150 155 165 170-171 179 180 181 185 412-414.
         Gale 121 130-132 138 165 173-175 178 352 411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...CB