Gale Warning 580, NWS Anchorage, AK

700 
FZAK61 PAFC 210036
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-211415-
336 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 977 mb low at 53N 150W will move to 48N 151W at 990 mb Mon night. 
A 1002 mb low will develop near 59N 142W Tue night and then remain 
nearly stationary and strengthen to 995 mb Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-211415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
336 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-211415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
336 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

508 
FZAK61 PAFC 211253
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-220200-
353 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Alaska will weaken
through late this morning before a front moves into the western Gulf
of Alaska this evening through Wed morning. A front over the Alaska 
Peninsula Wed night will move into the Gulf Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-220200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
353 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-220200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
353 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

465 
FZAK61 PAFC 220025
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-221445-
325 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front moves over the North Gulf Coast and Eastern Gulf through 
Wed afternoon. A 996 mb low forms at 60N 142W Wed afternoon and 
merges with a 979 mb low near 58N 145W Thu afternoon. The 
associated front trails across the Eastern Gulf and south of 
Kodiak Island through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-221445-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
325 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-221445-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
325 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

188 
FZAK61 PAFC 221247
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-230200-
347 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front moves over the North Gulf Coast and Eastern Gulf through 
this afternoon. A 985 mb low at 58N 151W Thu morning moves to 56N
148W at 977 mb Fri morning. The associated front moves across to 
the Eastern Gulf through Fri morning.

$$

PKZ351-230200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
347 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 to 11 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-230200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
347 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

098 
FZAK61 PAFC 230022
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-231415-
322 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Broad low pressure exits the Southeastern Gulf by Thu morning. A
front extends across the Northern Gulf through Fri afternoon. A
985 mb low forms at 58N 150W Thu morning and moves to 54N 140W at
978 mb for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-231415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
322 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 6 to
11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-231415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
322 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 8 to 13 
ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

322 
FZAK61 PAFC 231249
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-240200-
349 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 985 mb low at 58N 151W will move to 55N 144W at 972 mb by Fri
morning, then it will move to 56N 140W at 983 mb by Sat morning. A 
front enters the western Gulf Fri morning extending southward through
Sat.

$$

PKZ351-240200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
349 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-240200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
349 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming N 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

672 
FZAK61 PAFC 240031
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-241415-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 977 mb low near 57N 144W will move to 56N 140W at 975 mb Fri 
afternoon, then to 56N 144W at 990 mb Sat afternoon. High pressure
will begin to enter the Western Gulf Fri and persist into Sat.

$$

PKZ351-241415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-241415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
331 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

107 
FZAK61 PAFC 241244
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-250215-
344 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 974 mb low at 56N 142W will move to 58N 143W at 992 mb 
by Sat afternoon, then to 57N 144W at 990 mb by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ351-250215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ352-250215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 AM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

080 
FZAK61 PAFC 250025
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-251415-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb low at 56N 142W will move to 58N 143W at 992 mb by
Sat afternoon then it will move to 57N 144W at 990 mb by Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ351-251415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ352-251415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
325 PM AKST Fri Nov 24 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

197 
FZAK61 PAFC 251251
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-260230-
351 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 986 mb low at 58N 142W will move to 56N 144W at 993 mb by Sun 
morning and then into the eastern Gulf and dissipate through Sun. 
A strong front moves into the western Gulf Sun morning then into 
the central Gulf by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-260230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
351 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-260230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
351 AM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Sun Nov 19 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A strong short-wave trough continues to dig south of Kodiak Island,
supported by a 160 kt upper level jet streak diving southward
across the eastern Bering Sea on the front side of a high amplitude
ridge. Cold air advection across the eastern Bering and Alaska
Peninsula is leading to widespread strong gusty winds, with near
warning level winds (75 mph) being observed through channeled
areas along the southern Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians.
Even colder "Arctic" air over northern Alaska and the northern
Bering Sea is poised to advect southward through this same corridor
as an upper level low over interior Southwest weakens and gives
way to a strengthening low over the Gulf.

Out ahead of the trough light snow has been falling across nearly
all of Southcentral Alaska today. However, snow is beginning to
lighten up and taper off as energy is transferred down to the
Gulf and low level offshore flow strengthens. Gusty northerly
winds along Cook Inlet are also leading to blowing snow and
significantly reduced visibilities across portions of the western
Kenai Peninsula. Conditions will improve here as the snow lightens.

Kodiak Island is in a precarious position right along the upper
trough axis and just west of the developing surface low over the
Gulf. Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 30s, but cold
air advecting in from the west will cool the shallow above
freezing layer near the surface and change precipitation to snow.
Heavier bands of snow will approach from the Gulf as the low
deepens, likely affecting the northeast end of the island,
including Kodiak City. However, the relatively warm surface
temperatures will limit blowing snow.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Overall, model guidance is in very good agreement with large scale
features. The primary forecast challenge in the short-term is
determining how much precip from the Gulf low will make it to
Kodiak Island and how quickly surface temperatures will fall
once snow develops. All guidance indicates some wobbles in the
low as it develops and tracks southward, so will need to keep an
eye on satellite imagery to track heavier bands of snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Ceilings and visibility will steadily improve this
evening as snow ends and northerly low level flow strengthens.
The winds should keep any fog or stratus from forming, which often
occurs in the wake of fresh snow. Cold air advection will
increase on Monday and though not strong, it looks like just
enough to help mix down stronger winds from aloft to the surface.
Thus, have trended up with the wind forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The front across Southcentral slides to the Gulf this evening
bringing snow to an end across inland locations. A triple point
surface low which developed along the western Gulf this afternoon
deepens tonight as a strong upper level wave rounds the base of
the mid level trough. This strong wave closes off a new center
over the southern Gulf waters tonight keeping mixed precipitation
across the Gulf with a few showers moving into coastal locations
through early Monday morning. Skies will clear on Monday from west
to east across the mainland as subsidence occurs along a ridge
shifting in from the Bering. The main forecast challenge on Monday
surrounds the strength and timing of wind speeds across channeled
terrain as offshore flow develops in the wake of the low. Only
minor changes were made to increase speeds across the Matanuska
Valley and keep slightly higher gusts through midnight for
Thompson Pass as a jet streak moves overhead while an upper level
wave moves east from the Chugach Mountains. Tuesday will be
relatively quiet across the region as the low in the Gulf moves
further southeast.

Kodiak and the Gulf waters... Updated the forecast to take out
the Winter Weather Advisory as snow amounts are not expected to be
as high as previously expected. Snow remains in the forecast
through Monday as a developing shortwave moves from the Southwest
to the western Gulf, however snow accumulations were lowered.
Snow will taper off Monday night as the low pressure system slides
to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low pressure system that brought snow, freezing rain, and
strong winds to the area will continue to move off to the
southeast into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. A few remaining snow
showers over the Kuskokwim Delta and higher terrain to the east will
taper off this evening. Cold air and strong winds will filter
down from the north on the backside of the low, which could lead
to some areas of blowing snow where light powdery snow had
previously accumulated, especially inland areas to the north.
Along the Western Capes, strong northerly winds with gusts to
40-50 mph will continue as a low level jet just to the west over
the Bering Straight moves through the area.

By tomorrow, a transitory upper level ridge moves in bringing
clearing skies and diminishing winds, though temperatures will
drop to their lowest levels of the season at some locations.
Cloud cover will increase again by Monday night as the next system
approaches from the northwest bringing another round of
precipitation and windy conditions on Tuesday. This system looks
to be a bit weaker than its predecessor, though snow should fall
across most areas with rain still likely along the Western Capes.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong winds will continue tonight along the Eastern Bering and
Aleutians as a northerly low level jet descends through the Bering
Strait. Aided by a 160 kt jet streak at 300 mb and mid level cold
air advection from the Arctic, winds will mix down and accelerate
through channeled areas and terrain gaps leading to gusts up to
75 mph from Dutch Harbor east. Winds will quickly diminish tonight
and tomorrow morning as an upper level ridge moves over the
Eastern Bering. Therefore, no changes were made to the current
high wind warnings and are on track to expire at midnight for
Dutch Harbor and 6 am for Cold Bay

Further west, another system approaches as a strong warm front
attached to a low anchored over Eastern Russia sweeps northeast across
the Western Bering/Aleutians bringing rain and gale force winds to
the area tonight through tomorrow night. The pattern continues as
high pressure builds in rapidly behind the departing system
bringing a quick relief in the active weather before another
strong low pushes in from the southwest Tuesday night. This storm
is progged to rapidly deepen as it moves across the Bering on
Wednesday and looks to be the makings of a possible strong winter
storm late this week for the Eastern Bering and Southwest mainland.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

On Tuesday, a low well north of the Arctic Circle will bring a
front through the southern portion of the mainland, with a brief
shot of snow for the entire region and some short lived outflow
winds for the Southcentral area. Tuesday night and Wednesday will
be the literal calm before the storm for most of the state, as a
low pressure system enters the western Bering late Tuesday night
and strengthens rapidly as it crosses the Bering.

Models have been relatively consistent with the track of this
storm varying a little to the south over the past day. Current
forecast is for the low to cross the northern Bering and move
onshore near Nunivak Island late Wednesday night, before moving
southeastward over the Kuskowim Delta and Bristol Bay before
heading into the Gulf on Thursday night. It is still expected to
be a storm force low and significant winds and waves are currently
in the forecast for the Bering Sea...with some concern for high
winds and seas in the Bristol Bay region on Wednesday. Behind this
storm another northwesterly punch will bring high winds for the
Pribilofs and the AK Pen, not unlike the pattern from this
weekend. As the storm moves into the Gulf, northwesterly outflow
winds will again be the concern for Southcentral on Friday. On
Saturday, the pattern begins again with another low approaching
from the southwest, although this system appears to take a more
northerly track along the Kamchatka Peninsula, hopefully lessening
the wind and wave threat in Alaska for next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 181 185.
MARINE...Gale 127 130 138 139 160 173 174 178 179 181 185.
		 Storm 119 120 131-137 150 155 165-172 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...LF