Gale Warning 547, NWS Anchorage, AK

291 
FZAK51 PAFC 271157
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-280115-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A weakening front will move from the northern Gulf Fri morning into 
the northeastern Gulf by the evening. An area of high pressure will 
build across the Gulf and strengthen for the weekend.

$$

PKZ119-280115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-280115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-280115-
Resurrection Bay-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-280115-
Prince William Sound-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-280115-
Port Valdez-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-280115-
Valdez Narrows-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-280115-
Valdez Arm-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-280115-
Passage Canal-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-280115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-280115-
Barren Islands East-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-280115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-280115-
Chiniak Bay-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-280115-
Marmot Bay-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-280115-
Shelikof Strait-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-280115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-280115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-280115-
Kachemak Bay-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft 
building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main low impacting the area has pushed into the eastern Bering
with its front moving through the southern mainland. The strong
push of warm, southerly air has brought mostly rain to the area
with the exception of higher elevations and some locations further
inland. This deep low has also brought strong winds to areas
across the southern mainland due to the strong pressure gradient
it created.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in fairly good agreement early on until the mid
term when they struggle with several lows approaching the
Aleutians from the south Friday and Saturday. There are
differences with timing, position and intensity of these lows
leading to lower confidence in what they will do as they near the
islands. The thing they do agree on is that they will bring more
warm air to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...As a front pushes through this morning, winds will
increase to warning level along Turnagain Arm bringing southeast
gusts over the airport around 50 KT. Strong winds will continue
into the early afternoon before diminishing by late afternoon.
Winds should stay out of the southeast throughout the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A robust front along the north Gulf coast will bring strong winds
across Southcentral today. The highest winds will be situated
along the Gulf coast and eastward across Turnagain Arm into
Anchorage. The 850 mb jet will peak at near 75 kt over Turnagain
arm around noon. The front will then move inland and weaken
rapidly in the afternoon. Strong south-southwest flow aloft will
continue through tonight, bringing more rain and showers to the
area. On Friday, an upper level trough will swing through
Southcentral, with the flow aloft becoming more westerly. By late
Friday conditions will dry out in this westerly flow, and a ridge
will build over the area Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Relatively warmer air will continue to influence the region
today and much of Friday. Widespread southerly flow coincident
with an enhanced pressure gradient is anticipated throughout the
day. A negative tilt shortwave will get kicked out from the upper
level vortex and move across southwest today. With the dynamics
and the moisture in place, expect another round of unsettled
weather albeit with mild temperatures. As time elapses, a re-
enforcing shot of energy will be ejected from the vortex on Friday
fueling another round of precipitation which will predominately
be snow or a rain/snow mix in the interior and rain along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A 979 mb surface low near Unalaska will continue to weaken as it
pushes along the Aleutian archipelago before recurving northeast
into Bristol Bay and over Hooper Bay. Gusty winds from this low
will continue to impact the region, although the peak gusts are on
a downward trend as the low continues to slowly fill. The latest
scatterometer pass on satellite pings into gale force winds north
of the Aleutian chain around the backside of the low. A brief
respite is projected this evening before the next mature storm
enters the domain. The next Kamchatka low has already developed an
occlusion and the precipitation shield is in the vicinity of Attu
Island. The models bring the triple point low into the Central
Bering on Friday and more wet and unsettled weather is projected
for the western and central Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The warmer pattern will continue through the weekend as broad
southwest flow remains focused over the southern mainland between
the Bering Sea trough and a stout northeast Pacific ridge. Friday
night into Saturday will also bring a break in precipitation for
Southcentral Alaska as high pressure briefly builds into the
central Gulf behind the departing system. Widespread rain will
then return to the area on Sunday as the next North Pacific low
moves into the eastern Bering accompanied by a front over the
Gulf. This will provide a reinforcing shot of warm air, with the
heaviest rain focused along the north Gulf coast through Monday
morning before that system also departs to the north.

There is lower confidence in how the pattern unfolds going into
the middle of the week as models continue to struggle with the
evolution of high pressure building into the Bering and western
Alaska behind the departing trough. The GFS/GEM both eventually
develop a closed high that drifts well to the north into the
Chukchi Sea. This would allow another trough to undercut the
ridge and move back into southern Alaska, keeping a chance of rain
in the forecast through the middle of the week. Meanwhile,
European guidance depicts a much more coherent blocking ridge
over the western mainland, which would keep most of the area dry
through much of the week in a weak offshore flow regime. Given
the uncertainty, the current forecast attempts to split the
difference in keeping a chance of rain over the southern mainland
into the middle of next week while gradually trending temperatures
down closer to seasonal normal values.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning...101.
		 Winter Weather Advisory...145.
MARINE...Gales...120 129 173 174 175 176 351.
		 Storms...119 125.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...MTL