Gale Warning 534, NWS Anchorage, AK

500 
FZAK52 PAFC 230515
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Updated Zone 150

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest 
Alaska+Bristol Bay+The Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian 
Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231815-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 994 mb low along the Y-K Delta coast will weaken into a trough 
of low pressure through Mon night. A compact 996 mb low 110 nm 
southwest of Sand Point will move inland and weaken across 
Bristol Bay Mon morning. A West Pacific low will rapidly deepen 
and move into the western Bering Sea Mon morning then peak in 
intensity at 938 mb 230 nm west of Shemya Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ150-231815-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
building to 11 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231815-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231815-
Bristol Bay-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-231815-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231815-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight.  Seas
8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231815-
Unalaska Bay-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.  Seas
5 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231815-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight.  Seas
6  ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231815-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming W 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight.  Seas
10 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.TUE...S wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231815-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 50 kt after midnight.  Seas
10 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.TUE...S wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 39 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231815-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 55 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 70 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft building to 19 ft  after
midnight. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231815-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 70 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft building to 23 ft 
after midnight. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 43 ft. 
.WED...W wind 45 kt. Seas 43 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231815-
Adak to Kiska-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
9 ft. Snow and rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 42 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 40 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231815-
Kiska to Attu-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon.  Gusts
to 70 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft building to 20 ft  in the
afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt in the evening.  Seas
27 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 44 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 40 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 33 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231815-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight.
 Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231815-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-231815-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-231815-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
915 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 30 kt  W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. 
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

425 
FZAK52 PAFC 231157
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-240045-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1002 mb low 50 nm south of Hooper Bay remains nearly stationary
and dissipates Mon evening. A 979 mb low 475 nm southwest of
Shemya moves to 275 nm northwest of Shemya at 935 mb Mon evening.
The low then moves near Adak at 952 mb Tue night.

$$

PKZ150-240045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt except NW 30 kt E of Sitkinak Island early. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-240045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon, Seas 8
ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, 
SW wind 20 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon, Seas 5 ft building 
to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-240045-
Bristol Bay-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-240045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-240045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-240045-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 60 kt developing in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-240045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft
building to 25 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-240045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-240045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft
building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 39 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-240045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-240045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft building to 24 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 27 ft building to 33 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 42 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 42 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-240045-
Adak to Kiska-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft Bering side...41 ft Pacific side. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 42 ft.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-240045-
Kiska to Attu-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Bering 
side, seas 24 ft. Pacific side, seas 23 ft building to 29 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft bering side...45 ft Pacific side. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 39 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-240045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-240045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-240045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-240045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 50 kt.
Seas 14 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The cold, vertically stacked parent low over the west coast
dominates the pattern as it continues to sink south. As it does
so, it is dragging plenty of cold air from the Bering Strait all
the way into the Cook Inlet region. Several individual pieces of
energy embedded within the cold air are moving counter-clockwise
around the low as well. The first wave was the one that brought
snow to much of the Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound area on
Saturday. This feature is moving off to the north and east as it
falls apart. However, in its wake, there are still quite a few
snow showers courtesy of southwest flow aloft and some low
stratus, especially over the Kenai Peninsula. The story is much
the same across Southwest AK. Where snow showers are not occurring,
low stratus/fog is trying to fill in. Meanwhile, northerly flow
is making for widespread cold air advection showers across the
entire Bering. A potent 155-165 kt remains well south of the
state near 50N. While it has been pretty much zonal (west to east)
the past week or so, it is starting to show some signs of
amplifying over the Western Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are having fits with this pattern. This is resulting in
low confidence in the forecast beyond 24 hours over mainland AK.
The weak waves rotating around the parent low in the cold air are
proving very challenging for the models to resolve. The first
issue is with the continuing light snow across Cook Inlet this
morning. There is some uncertainty is how much longer it lasts,
but radar is trending weaker and weaker. The next feature will be
a low that moves inland over Bristol Bay tonight. The NAM wants to
paint this feature further west over Dillingham while all other
models hold it east near Iliamna. This forecast is based upon the
further east solutions. Then attention will shift to a low
tracking from south to north in the western Gulf early Tue. The EC
is much faster with this feature than the other models in how it
arrives in the northern Gulf, however, they all end up in roughly
the same spot. The EC was preferred with this. Then there is the
very deep low developing Mon over the Western Bering. Thankfully,
models are in good agreement with this feature, so confidence is
much higher. But how this system tracks east and interacts with
the cold air over the mainland remains hazy.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light snow should continue to dissipate through the
morning. Lower ceilings could hang on for a few hours after it
ends, but visibility should readily improve to VFR. The rest of
the day will feature VFR conditions with a shift from SE to NE
winds late.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sun and
Mon)... The main upper level low will remain along the west coast
of Alaska through Monday night. This will send a series of weak
upper level disturbances through the northern Gulf and
Southcentral Alaska. The exact timing and strength of these
disturbances is not well agreed upon by the models, but the
general consensus is that they will be fairly weak and unlikely to
produce very much precipitation (if any). There is a chance of
snow inland this morning with the departing system that brought
snow yesterday, and this will be generally north of Anchorage.
Another weak system crosses the area later this afternoon into
tonight, with a low probability of snow. On Monday, precipitation
should spread across Kodiak, and some will spread inland Monday
night. Due to the model uncertainty, probabilities of
precipitation were generally kept in the chance to slight chance
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Sun
through Tue)...

A weakening area of low pressure situated over the YK-Delta will
continue to help create showers along the Southwest coast of
Alaska through Tuesday morning. Models are starting to become more
aggressive with a series of shortwaves rotating around this low
pressure system that will impact the Bristol Bay area Monday and
early Tuesday. These  waves are expected to bring some light
snowfall to the Bristol Bay area with minor accumulations.
However, one stronger wave on Monday will develop into a closed
low and bring the potential for 3 to 6 inches of snowfall near
Iliamna by Tuesday morning. The snowfall will result from a
deformation band that sets up over the region but as typical
models are struggling on the placement of this feature. At this
moment, model spread varies from Dillingham to Iliamna but models
are clustering on the Iliamna solution. A winter weather advisory
was considered for this system on Monday but with poor confidence
at the moment the decision to not issue with the morning package
was justified. Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with a
warm up expected by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Sun
through Tue)...

High pressure has continued to build across the western Bering Sea
this morning but the period of calmer weather will be rather short
lived. An extratropical low pressure system will develop near the
tip of Kamchatka tonight as typhoon Lan weakens over the western
Pacific. While typhoon Lan is expected to dissipate over the
northwestern Pacific Ocean on Monday, a lot of the moisture and
energy associated with the low will be absorbed into the
extratropical low moving along the Kamchatka Peninsula. The
cyclone near Kamchatka is expected to undergo rapid cyclogenesis
(drops from 979 mb Monday at 12Z to 938 mb Tuesday at 12Z) as it
moves into the southwest Bering Sea Tuesday morning.

Ahead of the low will be a very impressive front that rapidly
occludes over the Bering Sea. Widespread 50 to 60 kt winds are
expected over the western two-thirds of the Bering Sea Monday and
Tuesday with gusts up to 75 kts over the far western Bering Sea.
A high wind watch has been issued for the western and central
Aleutians where winds upwards to 80-85 mph are possible. The
strongest winds will likely be east of Shemya but a subtle change
in low track will change the frontal orientation and bring
stronger winds into Shemya. On top of this, seas of 25 to 35 feet
will be common in the western Bering on Tuesday while seas upwards
to 45 to 50 feet could be seen on the Pacific side of the Aleutian
Islands on Tuesday. This system should be closely monitored in
the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...from previous discussion)...
An active pattern is expected to continue during the long range
forecast through the middle of next week, with the focus being on
the remnants of Typhoon Lan entering the Bering and upper level
disturbances over the Gulf tracking into Southcentral.

The moisture rich and storm force remnants of Typhoon Lan will
push into the western Aleutians/Bering Monday evening in the form
of a warm front, also bringing some warmer temperatures and rain
to the area through mid-week. Models remain in good agreement up
until this point, but confidence begins to wane as the models
begin struggling more with the track and timing of the system
central and eastern Bering through Thursday. Thus giving us less
confidence on the timing, placement, and strength of any potential
wind threats and precipitation over the Aleutians and Bering as
the leading front passes over. This system will eventually spread
gusty winds and rain over the southern Mainland Wednesday morning
through the end of the week.

The other features we are monitoring are a series of upper level
waves tracking through the Gulf and into Southcentral Monday
evening through Wednesday. Given the cold air already in place
over the area, these waves bring potential for snow to make it
into Southcentral, with potential for moderate to heavy snowfall
along the Northern Gulf coast, Susitna Valley, and Copper river
Basin areas. The only caveat to that is that the models are
struggling with where and when these smaller systems develop and
when they eventually track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 187 191.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178 411.
         Gale Warning 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...TP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1105 AM AKDT SUN OCT 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     SNOW             PALMER                  61.60N 149.11W
10/22/2017  M2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RANDERSO