Gale Warning 519, NWS Anchorage, AK

450 
FZAK51 PAFC 122319
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-131215-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1010 mb low 65 nm southwest of Homer moves to 25 nm southeast 
of Cordova at 1009 mb Fri night and then moves inland. A 985 mb 
low 25 nm northwest of Cold Bay Fri night moves to 75 nm southeast
of Sitkinak at 990 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-131215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-131215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-131215-
Resurrection Bay-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-131215-
Prince William Sound-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-131215-
Port Valdez-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-131215-
Valdez Narrows-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-131215-
Valdez Arm-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-131215-
Passage Canal-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-131215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-131215-
Barren Islands East-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-131215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-131215-
Chiniak Bay-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-131215-
Marmot Bay-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-131215-
Shelikof Strait-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-131215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-131215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-131215-
Kachemak Bay-
319 PM AKDT Thu Oct 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

589 
FZAK51 PAFC 131138
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140100-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1009 mb low 45 nm west of Middleton Island moves over Cordova at 
1007 mb Fri afternoon and dissipates Sat morning. A 1001 mb low forms
260 nm west of Sitka Sat afternoon and moves 125 nm south of Yakutat
at 993 mb Sat night then shifts 70 nm southwest of Yakutat at 995 mb
by Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ119-140100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. From
Middleton Island S...S wind 15 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Near the coast...N wind 15 kt becoming 
W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140100-
Resurrection Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140100-
Prince William Sound-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. From Seal
Island N and W...N wind 20 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140100-
Port Valdez-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140100-
Valdez Narrows-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140100-
Valdez Arm-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140100-
Passage Canal-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier 
in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming Variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140100-
Barren Islands East-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140100-
Chiniak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140100-
Marmot Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140100-
Shelikof Strait-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming Variable 10 kt. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-140100-
Kachemak Bay-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft 
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

110 
FZAK51 PAFC 132325
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141230-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 mb low 50 nm southeast of Cordova dissipates and moves 
inland tonight. A 1000 mb low 180 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor 
moves to 85 nm south of Yakutat at 990 mb Sat night and then 
moves inland Sun. A 1001 mb low develops 60 nm southeast of 
Seward Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-141230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141230-
Resurrection Bay-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141230-
Prince William Sound-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141230-
Port Valdez-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141230-
Valdez Narrows-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141230-
Valdez Arm-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141230-
Passage Canal-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141230-
Barren Islands East-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141230-
Chiniak Bay-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141230-
Marmot Bay-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141230-
Shelikof Strait-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141230-
Kachemak Bay-
325 PM AKDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the early evening.
Winds becoming variable less than 10 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 PM AKDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An amplifying upper level ridge is tracking across the mainland
part of the state today as it is being pushed eastward by a strong
upper level low in the northwest Bering Sea. The jet stream is
wrapping around the low to the south and then moves over the north
side of the ridge. This is bringing strong southerly flow over the
central Bering Sea.
At the surface the low is in the northwest Bering Sea and around
958 mb this afternoon. This large low encompasses the entire
Bering Sea and into Southwest Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the significant exception of a
low tracking rapidly near the Aleutians and into Bristol Bay or
the AK Peninsula Friday into Saturday. This is a pattern where
models typically struggle. The GFS is by far the most northerly
brining it onshore near Dillingham. The ECMWF is holding firm
with a solution taking it south of the Alaska Peninsula. The
Canadian and NAM are in between but differ in speed. All solutions
are significantly farther south than yesterday. Afternoon
forecasts reflect a track through the center of Bristol Bay,
which looks likely at this point. This track will minimize the
chance of any coastal flooding with the weekend low.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will remain for the rest of
the night. Rain should move into the area tomorrow but conditions
will likely remain mostly VFR as southeasterly flow helps keep
ceilings in the 3500 to 5000 ft range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An amplifying ridge building in over the Mainland this evening
will maintain westerly flow across the Gulf, along with some weak
gap winds along the north Gulf coast. Mostly drier and cloudy
conditions are expected through Thursday morning, with a few
lingering showers over the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.
The focus will then shift to a large storm system tracking over
the far western Bering Sea, and the associated front marching
eastward into the western Gulf by Thursday morning. As is so often
the case, expect development of a triple point low over the far
western Gulf as the frontal system makes its way through the
western Gulf. This will lead to strengthening low level
southeasterly winds ahead of the low on Thursday, from the
northern Gulf across Prince William Sound to the Kenai Peninsula,
Turnagain Arm and Anchorage. However, instead of downslope drying,
deep and moist southwest flow aloft combined with a series of
sharp upper level short-waves will lead to steady rainfall for the
population centers Thursday through Friday morning. Strong gusty
gap winds are also expected to develop along Turnagain arm
Thursday, and diminish Friday morning.

Marginally colder air will filter into Southcentral overnight
Thursday into Friday, leading to falling snow levels area-wide.
Upslope flow along the west side of the Chugach and Talkeetna
Mountains combined with potential for locally heavy precipitation
as a short-wave moves through the region could lower snow levels
even more. For now, we have kept the potential for snowfall over
the Copper River Basin, and along the higher elevations of the
Chugach and Talkeetna mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The southwest coast of Alaska is experiencing gusty south to
southeasterly winds this afternoon as a front approaches the
shore. Expect winds to taper off overnight as the front moves
onshore and weakens. Rain associated with the front has already
reached the lower Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay area. As the
front pushes east tonight, expect rain to continue through
Thursday, tapering off from west to east Thursday afternoon.
Behind the front, continued strong southwesterly flow over the
Bering Sea will raise water levels along coastal areas of the
Kuskokwim Delta Thursday. Minor flooding of coastal low lying
areas is possible during high tide Thursday afternoon. Once the
front has pushed through the area, temperatures will cool
throughout the day Thursday. Friday will be cooler and showery
with temperatures returning to near normal for this time of year
after a few relatively warm (albeit wet) days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The low pressure system over the western Bering Sea will reach
peak intensity overnight before beginning to gradually weaken
Thursday morning. A swath of storm force winds over the western
Aleutians and western Bering will weaken to gale force as the
system moves north Thursday afternoon. By late Thursday night,
this low will move into eastern Siberia, leaving much of the
Bering Sea in a broad cyclonic, showery pattern overnight.
The next system to impact the area will approach the western and
central Aleutians from the southwest Friday morning. A strong
zonal jet to the south of the western Aleutians will move the
feature quickly east, however models are struggling with the exact
track and intensity of the low. Current thinking is that the low
will move along the base of the longwave trough, tracking eastward
just to the north of the Alaska Peninsula Friday through Friday
evening, then crossing into the western Gulf by Saturday morning.
The main impacts of this low will be felt along the Aleutians,
with a small swath of storm force winds possible around the
central and eastern Aleutians Friday night. With the difficulties
in the handling of this system, forecast confidence in the exact
placement of the strongest core of winds is fairly low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Saturday, the models have a low near the AKPEN. There have been
some major model discrepancies with the track of the low. The
ECMWF has brought the surface low south of the AKPEN while the GFS
has kept it well north of the AKPEN. The NAM is trending slightly
more to the south. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this
storm and it will impact everything from potential storm surge
issues to rainfall amounts. Given the vagaries of the models,
expect more updates associated with this system. Next week, the
pattern stays very active across the Bering Sea. As the zonal jet
continues, expect new systems to be steered across the AKPEN and
into the Gulf. This would result in calmer and clearer weather
across the mainland. The models are picking up on colder air
pooling up over the interior and spilling over the Alaska Range.
Increasing confidence that there will be a cold air outbreak by
the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 191
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RD
LONG TERM...PS