Gale Warning 478, NWS Anchorage, AK

669 
FZAK61 PAFC 171145
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-180030-
345 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A trough along the north Gulf Coast will dissipate Wed morning. A 
976 mb low near 54N 162W will move to 55N 135W at 971 mb Wed night.

$$

PKZ351-180030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-180030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 AM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

298 
FZAK61 PAFC 172328
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-181400-
328 PM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb low near 55N 152W will strengthen to 969 mb tonight then
move toward the Southeast Panhandle of Alaska Wed afternoon with 
strong offshore flow continuing through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-181400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
328 PM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-181400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
328 PM AKDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

978 
FZAK61 PAFC 181145
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-190030-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 970 mb low at 56N 146W will move to 55N 132W at 977 mb Thu 
morning. A 978 mb low forms at 59N 142W Wed evening and moves to 60N 
146W at 984 mb Thu night.

$$

PKZ351-190030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-190030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 AM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

588 
FZAK61 PAFC 182328
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-191245-
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 973 mb low at 58N 142W will dissipate and move toward the
Panhandle today. Weak troughing/low pressure will hang around the 
northern gulf through Friday.

$$

PKZ351-191245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-191245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

347 
FZAK61 PAFC 191153
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-200100-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 978 mb low at 58N 141W moves to 60N 142W at 987 mb Thu night and 
then dissipates Fri. A developing 988 mb low at 50N 156W Thu night 
moves to 53N 144W Fri night at 971 mb.

$$

PKZ351-200100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-200100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
353 AM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 5 to
10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

553 
FZAK61 PAFC 192332
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-201300-
332 PM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 980 mb low at 59N 140W moves inland near Prince William Sound and
then dissipates Fri. A 978 mb north Pacific low Fri night moves 
to 54N 144W at 970 mb Sat night.

$$

PKZ351-201300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
332 PM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-201300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
332 PM AKDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming W 10 to 25 kt after 
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The remnants of an upper low is over the Kenai Peninsula with a
weak ridge over southwest Alaska. There are some lingering showers
over Prince William Sound and the Gulf Of Alaska. The circulation
of the vortex is discernible from the Middleton Island radar this
morning. There is an upper level low over the northwest Bering
Sea. The jet stream over the northern Pacific continues to barrel
across the region. There is a weak shortwave over the
central/western Aleutians moving rapidly eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
For the first 24 hr period, the mass fields amongst the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar. As time elapses, the model
consensus quickly erodes. Compounding the magnitude of the
uncertainty is the fact that the run to run continuity with both
the GFS and the NAM has been below average. The focal point for
this morass is the low that moves over the Aleutians on Tuesday.
The ECMWF brings the track of the low more to the south, while the
Canadian GEM and the GFS are both pinging into a more northerly
track. Additionally, the pace of the storms motion and the
possible development of a triple point low are at stake. While
there is high confidence of another low impacting the North
Pacific and Gulf of Alaska early this week, there is still some
degree of uncertainty about the evolution and the morphology of
the low itself.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and cold northerly flow
continue across the mainland will continue through the middle of
the week. A weak vertically stacked low near Middleton Island is
spreading bands of clouds across most of Southcentral Alaska, but
shower activity is confined largely to the north Gulf coast. This
low will drift eastward through tonight, allowing cloudiness to
gradually diminish across most of the forecast area. Gusty
offshore winds will continue around Prince William Sound, with
lighter winds and colder temperatures inland. With clearing skies,
each night is still expected to be a few degrees cooler than the
previous, as a cooler airmass continues to move into the area from
the north. There has been a bit of a shift in the models in
regards to a low moving into the southern Gulf on Tuesday
afternoon. The general trend has been for a slightly stronger and
more northerly track. Thus the morning forecast reflects a bit
more in the way of wind and weather from Kodiak through the
offshore zones. Nevertheless, even with this new trend, the only
impact for the southern mainland will probably be a renewed push
of offshore (northerly) winds by midweek, with plenty of sunshine
to go around.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue along the
western coast of Alaska through this evening as an area of low
pressure over the Gulf of Anadyr continues to pump moisture
toward Southwest Alaska. As the low pressure system continues to
dissipate this evening, the influx of moisture will likely come to
an end and colder air out of the arctic will descend across
Southwest Alaska. The jet stream will remain well south of
Southwest Alaska which will keep any low pressure systems systems
that develop over the northern Pacific Ocean will quickly be
shunted into the Gulf of Alaska and away from region. Temperatures
will gradually cool off several degrees over the next several
days to more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active pattern will be observed along the Aleutian Islands and
southern Bering Sea over the next several days as the jet stream
over the northern Pacific Ocean will spin up multiple low pressure
systems. The first system is an area of low pressure currently
located near Shemya. Based on Satellite imagery, the low is in the
process of intensifying and will track just north of the western
and central Aleutians throughout the day. By tonight, a potent
triple point low looks to spin up not too far from Dutch Harbor
but models are struggling very much with this feature. It's tough
to tell how much impact on winds this feature will have but based
on the jet stream, it looks like the triple point low will
quickly become the dominant low with the low currently near Shemya
fizzling out. Storm force winds and possibly a lightning strike
or two will be possible this afternoon on the back side of the
low. This complex system will quickly move into the Gulf of Alaska
late Tuesday night with multiple low centers as triple point lows
continue to form along the frontal boundary. A separate frontal
boundary will enter the western Bering Sea Wednesday afternoon but
this one should be much weaker than the system currently pushing
through the western Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid to long term forecast beginning Tuesday night shows an
active storm track that will primarily stay south of the southern
mainland. This will bring more rain and winds to the Aleutians
through much of the week. There remains disagreement for the
exact track and timing of the low that moves through late in the
week but all guidance keeps it south of the southern mainland
until the weekend. That would leave mainly dry and cold for the
southern mainland until Saturday where there becomes a fair amount
of uncertainty as to what the low will do as it moves toward the
Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALE 174 175 178 413. STORM 176 and 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DWK