Gale Warning 450, NWS Anchorage, AK

044 
FZAK52 PAFC 201343 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210215-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 989 mb low 325 nm South of Adak moves to 70 nm South of Dutch
Harbor at 995 mb for Fri morning. The associated front moves over 
the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of 
Alaska through Fri morning. High Pressure moves over the Northern 
and Western Bering into Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-210215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210215-
Bristol Bay-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210215-
Unalaska Bay-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210215-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210215-
Adak to Kiska-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210215-
Kiska to Attu-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-210215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-210215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
543 AM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

191 
FZAK52 PAFC 202308
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-211145-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 mb low 240 nm south of Adak moves to 210 nm southwest of 
Dutch Harbor at 998 mb Thu evening moving eastward becoming 
complex through Fri. The associated front moves over the Eastern 
Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula Thu evening then will move into
the western Gulf Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-211145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-211145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-211145-
Bristol Bay-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-211145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-211145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-211145-
Unalaska Bay-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-211145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-211145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-211145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-211145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-211145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-211145-
Adak to Kiska-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-211145-
Kiska to Attu-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-211145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-211145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt S of Cape Newenham. Seas 
6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt except S 15 kt S of Cape Newenham. Seas 6
ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-211145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-211145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
308 PM AKDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A trough over the northern Gulf in combination with a ridge
stretching north across Bristol Bay, is producing gusty outflow
(N-NW winds) across the western and north Gulf coasts. Patchy fog
formed under clearing skies and weak subsidence across Cook
Inlet, Anchorage Bowl, Mat-Su Valleys, Kenai Peninsula, and the
Valdez area. Rain, associated with a frontal trough moving east
across the Kuskokwim Delta, is spreading eastward to the western
Kuskokwim Valley/western Bristol bay. Variable cloudiness with
little rain was observed across much of the Bering Sea/Aleutians
this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are all in good agreement through the short-term. Only
real main difference is the NAM still appears to be the outlier
in solutions of a developing low south of the Aleutians. The
GFS/ECWMF solutions will be used out west and the NAM in the east.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light winds with VFR conditions will persist through the
day. There is a risk of some fog or low ceilings late tonight and
Wednesday morning, but not high enough to warrant adding to the
TAF yet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level ridge building in from the west will continue to
influence our weather through the end of the day tomorrow. Dry
offshore NW flow will lead to mostly sunny skies over a majority
of the region tonight. The combination of clear skies, light
winds, and longer nights will allow temperatures to drop fairly
significantly overnight, especially for more inland locations.
Lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 30's in the
Anchorage/Mat-Su areas, though typical cold spots like East
Anchorage could see lows approaching the freezing mark. Patchy fog
is also possible in the early morning hours over the Cook Inlet
and near the coast. A weak system moving in from the west will
bring increasing cloud cover tomorrow morning and light rain
extending down as far south as Palmer. This system will move
through fairly quickly and skies will begin to clear up by the
evening hours. Temperatures are expected to again drop well into
the 30's for most location north of the Kenai Peninsula.

For Thursday, a frontal system associated with a strong low over
the North Pacific will push north into the region, bringing
widespread rain from Kodiak, north into the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and the Mat-Su by late morning to early afternoon
lasting through most of the day. Rainfall amounts with this
system do not look to be overly impressive along the coast as the
orientation of the upper level jet will be aimed more to the east,
keeping southcentral out of the core of heaviest precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue across the northern
portion of the area through Wednesday as the system currently
tracking through the Yukon Delta is reinforced by a trailing
shortwave moving across the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim
Valley Wednesday morning. More widespread stratiform rain will
then arrive late Wednesday evening along the Bristol Bay coastline
as the Bering front begins to push inland over Southwest AK
through Thursday morning. Rain looks to continue into Thursday
evening and beyond as the longwave trough extending from the
Arctic phases with the upper low south of the Aleutian chain and
helps to establish broad southwest flow over the region into the
latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front currently moving over the Aleutians will be the primary
feature of interest in the short term as rain and gale force
winds spread from the Central and Eastern Aleutians tonight to the
Alaska Peninsula Wednesday morning and the Pribilof Islands
Wednesday afternoon. The eastern half of the Bering will remain
in a wet and windy pattern into Thursday night as the parent North
Pacific low makes slow eastward progress from south of Adak to
south of Unalaska. Meanwhile, western portions of the Bering
including Shemya should remain on the drier side in northeast
flow on the back side of the evolving longwave trough.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Thursday night, there will
be an arctic trough merging with a North Pacific warm front over
the state. Broad southwest flow will bring rain to most of
Southern Alaska heading into Saturday as the upper trough remains
in place. Uncertainty develops on Saturday night with another warm
front moving north toward the Gulf of Alaska with the ECMWF
favoring a deep 978 hpa surface low tucked into the west side of
the Gulf. However, the 12z GFS and Canadian GDPS models are
notably weaker and much farther east with the surface low.
However, even with this uncertainty, there will still be plenty of
forcing for continued coastal rain and rain chances inland through
the weekend. Eventually, the upper low will move southward into
the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska, which, in theory, should
result in less precipitation chances heading into mid/late week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 170 172>177 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA