Gale Warning 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

403 
FZAK51 PAFC 111235
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120145-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-120145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-120145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-120145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ125-120145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-120145-
PORT VALDEZ-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-120145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-120145-
VALDEZ ARM-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-120145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017
.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-120145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-120145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-120145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-120145-
CHINIAK BAY-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-120145-
MARMOT BAY-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-120145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-120145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-120145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-120145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
335 AM AKST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 AM AKST Tue Jan 10 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The story remains largely unchanged from the past several days. A
stout ridge of high pressure remains centered over Western Alaska.
This is keeping conditions clear and cold across most of the
southern mainland. In fact, the only real moisture across much of
our area is some stratus over the Central and Western Bering and a
decaying trough bringing light rain to the Central and Western
Aleutians. This pattern is also setting the stage for low stratus
and fog to form. This is especially likely near open water sources
such as the Cook Inlet.

We are starting to see on satellite signs of what will cause this
pattern to break down later in the week. A weak trough over
eastern Russia will link up with a low that is currently over the
East Siberian Sea. These two will work in tandem to start to
dampen the ridge by Wed.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in very good synoptic agreement in the
first 36 hrs leading to high forecast confidence. The primary
area of uncertainty surrounds fog and low stratus formation from
the Cook Inlet through the Copper River Basin. Fog was manually
scaled back a bit, but otherwise, few edits were made in this
timeframe.

Models start to diverge much more by late Wed-Thu. They struggle with
a trough dropping into South Central from the northwest and how a
front over the North Pacific interacts with another trough along
the north Gulf Coast. They are starting to converge on a solution
where a potent shortwave will dive into the Susitna Valley Thu-
Fri, but the exact orientation and strength of this feature
remains uncertain. The shortwave then appears to have enough cold
air digging into its western flank, that it then establishes a
longwave trough over southern AK through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog will cause intermittent bouts of LIFR conditions this
morning. The fog is hugging the Knik Arm and is quite limited in
extent. With light flow and increasing stability, it should
persist through the morning. There should be enough mixing late
this morning to help it lift for a short period of time, but the
exact timing remains uncertain. It is quite likely that it will
return tonight with little change in the overall pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Mostly clear skies will persist over Southcentral Alaska the next
few days. There will be some areas of fog in the northern Cook
Inlet area at times due to the strong inversion but it should not
be as widespread or thick as it was for much of last week. Some
gusty outflow winds will also continue through channeled terrain
along the North Gulf Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Forecast thinking remains largely unchanged through Wednesday,
with mostly clear and cold conditions persisting area wide as the
stout blocking high over the western mainland migrates to the Gulf
of Alaska. Patchy fog will continue to be a minor concern through
tonight, although dry air and weak offshore flow will serve to
mitigate more widespread development. Increasing offshore flow
should put an end to any lingering fog concerns by Wednesday night
as an upper level trough approaches from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A stretch of unseasonably quiet weather will continue across the
region for the next few days as the ridge axis shifts from the
mainland to the Bering. This will promote partly sunny skies and
potentially some fog development for much of the Bering, with a
chance of showers persisting across the West/Central Aleutians.
Easterly winds will gradually increase to Small Craft Advisory
level by Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens between the
ridge and a low passing south of the chain, however winds are
expected to remain below gale force at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Starting late Wednesday a potential pattern change will begin as
a very cold arctic trough begins to descend through the mainland,
forcing the blocking high well to the south. This will bring much
colder temperatures to the mainland, most notably along higher
elevations that currently are much warmer above the inversion.
Due to the very dry low levels, there initially will not be any
snowfall from this trough. Chances for snow will begin to increase
as it digs through the Southwest Mainland into the Bering late
this week. The big question that is impacting forecast confidence
the most is determining where the upper-level and the resulting
surface trough will develop in the gulf late Fri-Sat. Prior runs
all brought a surface trough to the North Gulf Coast, producing a
potential snow event to the North Gulf and possibly Southcentral
this weekend. Since then the 12z EC has shifted this trough far
enough east of the area to keep Southcentral dry with only a
glancing blow to the North Gulf Coast where precipitation chances
are the greatest. As a result there is very low confidence in the
snow forecast for Southcentral and Gulf Coast this weekend that
will need to be further fine-tuned with better model agreement.

Further to the west, forecast confidence over the Southwest
Mainland and Bering Sea is much better into this weekend with very
good agreement in strong cold air advection and northerly flow
throughout the area. This will bring widespread showers and gusty
northerly winds throughout the Bering Sea and Aleutians beginning
on Friday through the weekend. The Southwest Mainland will
be generally cloudy and cold as the upper level trough sets up
overhead with light winds.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DK