Gale Warning 435, NWS Anchorage, AK

316 
FZAK52 PAFC 122314
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131215-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 mb low 120 nm northwest of the Pribilof Islands will weaken
and move inland over the Southwest Alaska coast by Thu afternoon.
A trough of low pressure will move into the western Bering Sea 
tonight then move north toward the Bering Strait Thu. A developing
North Pacific low will move to 110 nm northwest of Adak at 985 mb
by late Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-131215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13 
ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 35 kt
becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131215-
Bristol Bay-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131215-
Unalaska Bay-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131215-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131215-
Adak to Kiska-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131215-
Kiska to Attu-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-131215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
314 PM AKDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

263 
FZAK52 PAFC 131205
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-140100-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 mb low 60 nm south of Nome will weaken and move northeast 
inland this morning. Tonight a 991 mb low will move to 334 nm 
southwest of Shemya from the southwest then it will move to 165 
nm west of Adak at 986 mb by late Thu afternoon. Then it will 
move to 150 nm west of St. Paul Island at 976 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-140100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-140100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 30 kt
diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-140100-
Bristol Bay-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-140100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. From Port 
Moller E, S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ170-140100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 60 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-140100-
Unalaska Bay-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-140100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-140100-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-140100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-140100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-140100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft 
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-140100-
Adak to Kiska-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. W of
Amchitka Pass...becoming E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-140100-
Kiska to Attu-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-140100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-140100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt except becoming NW in the afternoon W of
Kuskokwim Bay. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-140100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-140100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
405 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt except becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming
SW 20 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 PM AKDT Mon Sep 11 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The current upper level pattern has an upper level low near
Wrangel Island in the Arctic and a weak ridge traversing over
Southcentral Alaska this afternoon through tonight. The trough
that extends from the low to near Attu will dig southward in
conjunction with the low as the ridge amplifies over the next two
days setting up a pattern with a deep trough through the Bering
Sea and a highly amplified ridge near the Alcan border which will
become the basic overall pattern for much of the week. The surface
pattern has generally high pressure over Southcentral Alaska to
just west of the Alaska range with the low in the western Bering
Sea moving eastward. In short, today is the break between systems
for southern mainland Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement through late in the week.
Run to run consistency also remains good. The higher resolution
models look to be catching the wind details through the terrain
and were favored overall for this reason.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through tomorrow. Southeast winds
will increase some overnight but likely be limited to the 10 to 15 kt
range at the airport. The SE winds will will get gusty tomorrow
and the gusts should increase to the 20 to 30 kt range tomorrow
afternoon.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A brief round of high pressure this evening will bring the nicest
conditions to Southcentral this evening than the remainder of the
week. With this high pressure, there is a possibility for
fog/stratus development again tonight, in particular for the
Susitna Valley that will see weak and moist onshore flow
throughout the night. The main limitation to this will be for
mid-high clouds that will move through the area over top of the
ridge, but this will probably not be extensive enough to prevent
development. Starting Tuesday, all areas will begin to see the
pattern change as a frontal system approaches from the west,
bringing rain to most locations by Wednesday morning. The
associated low however will stay well to the west over the west
coast, leaving a strong pressure gradient along the North Gulf
Coast that will bring strong winds through Turnagain Arm into
Wednesday. There will be some downsloping associated with these
winds along the Chugach, however with deep/moist southwesterly
flow rain will still spread into most areas west of the Copper
River Basin. The heaviest rainfall from this low is expected to
occur from the Kenai Peninsula westward, as ridging over the
Eastern Gulf will limit any significant rainfall from moving east
of Middleton Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The short wave ridge that had been over the region the past couple
of days moves out quickly tonight as an upper level longwave
trough digs in across the Bering Sea. Moist southerly flow sets
up out ahead of a surface low centered west of the Pribilofs
spreading steady rain across Southwest Alaska tonight into
Tuesday. An upper level jet moves overhead Tuesday night
supporting the development of heavy rain over the Bristol Bay
area and the lower Kuskokwim River Valley. In addition to heavy
precipitation, a southerly low level jet will develop Tuesday
night bringing the potential of gale force winds over Bristol Bay
and along the coast. Wednesday looks to remain wet as cold air
advection behind the surface front will aid in the development of
lingering rain showers throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A negatively tilted longwave trough over the Bering will be the
main focus for the short term forecast. As the trough digs down
across the Northwest and Central Bering, a warm front will track
east across the Central Aleutians into the AKPEN spreading rain
across the region on Tuesday. Strong northerly winds on the
backside of the low will drag cooler Arctic air south and will
help mix down strong winds to the surface, bringing gale force
winds to the Western and Central Aleutians through the day on
Tuesday. Rain will begin to taper off across the Central and
Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday morning as the system tracks off to
the east though cold air advection on the backside of the low may
aid in the development of shower activity in the eastern part of
the area. A short live ridge builds in over the Central Bering and
Pribilofs by Wednesday evening before the next system moves in
from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The main focus for the long term forecast will be on a strong low
pressure system developing in the central Bering Sea on day 4
(Friday). A surface low moving in from the subtropical waters of
the Northwestern Pacific will move over the Western Aleutians and
cross into the Bering Sea on Friday. This low looks to interact
with an upper level system dropping south from the Arctic at the
same time. There have been significant run-to-run and model-to-
model inconsistencies with the strength and track of this system,
leaving forecaster confidence low on the exact details of this
system through the weekend. The GFS solution phases the
subtropical and Arctic lows together leading to a much stronger
low in the Bering compared with other models, with the central
pressure up to 20 mb lower than the EC and Canadian. The overall
consensus right now seems to be a sub 980 low in the Bering with
the system taking a southeast track across the AKPEN and into the Gulf
of Alaska by Sunday. Regardless of the model inconsistencies,
there is high confidence that this system will bring heavy rain
and high winds to the Pribilofs, Central/Eastern Aleutians, and
Southwest Alaska Friday and Saturday with rainy and unsettled
weather expected in Southcentral Alaska Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 185 411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KV
LONG TERM...KVP