Gale Warning 399, NWS Anchorage, AK

804 
FZAK51 PAFC 311152
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010100-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 mb low 65 nm south of Homer will weaken and move inland Thu 
night. High pressure will build over the Eastern Gulf Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-010100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010100-
Resurrection Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010100-
Prince William Sound-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010100-
Port Valdez-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010100-
Valdez Narrows-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010100-
Valdez Arm-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010100-
Passage Canal-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming w 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010100-
Barren Islands East-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010100-
Chiniak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010100-
Marmot Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010100-
Shelikof Strait-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 t.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010100-
Kachemak Bay-
352 AM AKDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 PM AKDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Unsettled conditions continue across Southcentral with a long
wave trough draped across the mainland, and a broad ridge across
the Bering Sea. At the surface, a low over Kodiak Island is
keeping soggy conditions from Bristol Bay to Kodiak Island to the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. Its associated front is strengthening
cross barrier flow across the Kenai Peninsula and pressure
gradients this afternoon as it approaches the Gulf coast.
Satellite imagery already indicates a developing mountain wave
across the Kenai Peninsula, while radar shows strong downsloping.
Meanwhile, broad northerly flow dominates the western Bering under
high pressure. Mountain waves are helping to support particularly
strong gusts across the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in generally good agreement in the short-term, with a
NAM/GFS blend favored. However, models are under-estimating the
mountain wave dynamics and gap flow across the Alaska Peninsula
today. Models begin to diverge significantly Monday and Tuesday
with the location of a potential atmospheric river. Heavy rains
are likely along the north Gulf coast during this time, but the
location of heaviest rains remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Strong southeast winds will
end by around 05z as down Inlet flow strengthens, bending the
Turnagain Jet southward as it exits Turnagain Arm. There could be
some low level wind shear with surface winds expected to shift to
northwesterly, though the amount of shear looks to be 15 kts or
less, which is below criteria for including it in the terminal
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The remnants of a once strong storm force low continue to weaken
over the region. The low center is in the vicinity of Kodiak
Island with the leading upper level trough axis moving north
toward the coast. This feature is helping to strengthen a barrier
jet along the North Gulf Coast. Upper shortwave ridging over the
interior has helped support rather impressive southeast winds
through the favored gaps and down the Copper River Basin. However,
as the low lifts north, the gradient should quickly become down-
inlet with weakening winds during the evening. More showery but
constant rain will continue to impact the coast the next two days
with an additional 3-5" of rainfall. However, rain is not expected
to be as heavy as the last two days so flood concerns look to be
minimal. The exception will be some local rises in small streams
in the heaviest rains.

Inland precipitation will be tougher as downslope flow looks to
remain rather dominant. Expect any rainfall lee of the Chugach and
Kenai Mountains to remain showery and light, with the best chances
tomorrow afternoon as the upper trough lifts over the region.
Tonight, mountain wave activity may help support areas of
convergence favoring the Cook Inlet side of Anchorage and the
Kenai Peninsula, but either way any shower activity will be light
and sporadic.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A very persistent upper level longwave trough positioned over
mainland Alaska will lead to continued unsettled weather across
much of Southwest Alaska. A surface low over Kodiak will slowly
drift NE with precipitation wrapping around the system into
Southwest AK through Friday. Strong northerly flow on the back
side of the low will bring dry air down across the coast and Y-K
Delta area and lead to a sharp demarcation in precipitation and
cloud cover just to the east of Bethel. On Friday, a surface low
will spin up near the Seward Peninsula and begin to drop down into
the region. This will switch the flow around to Southwesterly,
bringing clouds and precipitation across most of the area by
Friday night through much of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong northerly flow along the Eastern Bering and southern
Alaska Peninsula will continue through Thursday afternoon before
tapering off overnight. Winds will continue to be accelerated
through terrain gaps along the Eastern Aleutian chain with gusts
expected around 30-40 mph in favored locations. A weak shortwave
coming down from the north will spread areas of light showers
across the central Bering on Thursday. On Friday a fairly strong
low will begin to develop in the Western Bering bringing widespread
rain and strong winds across the island chain. The low is expected
to drop south across the islands and rapidly develop on Saturday,
which will likely be the deepest low formed so far this season.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The big question going into next week is what will happen with the
rapidly intensifying low south of the Aleutians. Depending on how
far south the trough digs it may tap into tropical moisture and
bring a long fetch of moisture to southern Alaska. Most current
operational runs and ensembles are indicating this to be the case
which would mean Monday and Tuesday would see steady, heavy rain,
primarily along the north Gulf coast. However, there are still
differences in where the low will setup and the trough may not
dig far enough south.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KV
LONG TERM...DK