Gale Warning 395, NWS Anchorage, AK

574 
FZAK51 PAFC 272308
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-281200-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front will enter the southern Gulf late tonight and move to the
northern and western Gulf by Mon afternoon, then move inland Mon
night. The associated North Pacific low will move to 150 nm
southeast of Sitkinak at 985 mb Mon afternoon, then move to 60 nm
east of Sitkinak at 979 mb by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-281200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-281200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-281200-
Resurrection Bay-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Higher seas S of Caines
Head. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
Rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-281200-
Prince William Sound-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain 
showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance. 
Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Highest winds and seas S of Seal Island. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-281200-
Port Valdez-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-281200-
Valdez Narrows-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-281200-
Valdez Arm-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-281200-
Passage Canal-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-281200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-281200-
Barren Islands East-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18  ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-281200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-281200-
Chiniak Bay-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-281200-
Marmot Bay-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-281200-
Shelikof Strait-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-281200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-281200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-281200-
Kachemak Bay-
308 PM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKDT Sun Aug 27 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level pattern this morning continues to be
characterized by a rather diffuse longwave trough over mainland
Alaska, which is anchored by a pair of weak lows near the AK
Peninsula and over the northern Gulf. Broad cyclonic flow beneath
the trough is supporting scattered showers across the southern
mainland. Farther west, a weak frontal zone spans much of the
southern Bering Sea from the Kamchatka Peninsula all the way to
near Dutch Harbor, with a weak wave forming along the front
helping to enhance rainfall over portions of the Eastern
Aleutians. The rest of the Bering remains in a benign cloudy
regime on the southern periphery of a large closed high over
Eastern Russia.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in generally good agreement through the short term as
the trough lingers over the mainland and is eventually reinforced
by a shortwave tracking rapidly across the southern Bering. There
is also good agreement on the timing of the next front arriving
along the Gulf coast late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
Spread starts to increase by Tuesday as a deep North Pacific low
tracks near Kodiak Island. Primarily utilized the GFS for its run
to run consistency with this feature, avoiding the NAM as it has
been a significant outlier.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through Monday morning.
Gusty southeast winds are expected to subside this morning, but
may return to the terminal during the afternoon as ridging builds
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Similar weather pattern to yesterday over Southcentral Alaska
with some showers around, but also some brief breaks in the clouds
as well. The pattern will begin to change again Monday afternoon
as a strong front pushes into the northern Gulf of Alaska and
brings rain back to that region. Inland areas will be see that
rain push into those areas Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will
also get gusty around the north Gulf Coast and Kodiak with a
northerly gradient over Cook Inlet bringing Gale force winds to
the lower Inlet by Monday night. It is also looking increasingly
likely that there will be some Storm Force winds developing along
the Gulf coast side of the Kenai Peninsula and into the Barren
Island region by Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Rain showers have become quite sparse across Southwest Alaska this
morning as the orientation of the upper level trough is keeping
the bulk of the energy over the eastern Bering Sea. A few showers
have continued along the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges but those have
been diminishing through the morning hours and should continue to
do so throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorms could develop
near the Kilbuck Mountains this afternoon but instability looks
rather marginal. Through Monday, isolated to scattered showers
can be expected across the region but the lack of any large scale
features should really inhibit any significant rain chances.
Attention will turn to the low moving into the northern Gulf of
Alaska near Kodiak Island late Monday which will push a front into
Southwest Alaska and bring some pretty decent rainfall to the
Bristol Bay area and the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A weakening front remains draped across the western half of the
Bering Sea this morning with a triple point low developing west of
Nikolski. This low will help bring some moderate to heavy rainfall
to parts of the eastern Aleutians this morning before it quickly
pushes into the North Pacific. The area of low pressure the
aforementioned front is attached to will begin to move across the
Bering Sea on Monday which will help increase rain chances once
again. Winds look to remain below 25 kts for most locations as
broad surface low pressure encompasses a vast majority of the
Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term will begin mid week and will be characterized
primarily by a low south of Kodiak Island that will have moved
into the area from the south. It's front will push in over
Southcentral Alaska in the Monday night time frame. The low will
then slowly track north bringing continued southeast flow and rain
to southern Alaska, with the heaviest along the north Gulf coast.
On Friday the low will dissipate and a new low will push into the
Bering from the west.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 131 132 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MMC
LONG TERM...DWK