Gale Warning 382, NWS Anchorage, AK

430 
FZAK52 PAFC 131149
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-140030-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof volcano, 53 nm northwest of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active. 

A strong front over the southwest Alaska coast will weaken through
tonight. A 994 mb low 270 nm southeast of Adak will move to 180 nm
south of Dutch Harbor at 1002 mb tonight...then move to the 
southern Gulf of Alaska Mon night. An associated front south of 
the central Aleutians will weaken as it moves to the North Pacific
Mon night.

$$

PKZ150-140030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-140030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-140030-
Bristol Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-140030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-140030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-140030-
Unalaska Bay-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-140030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-140030-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-140030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-140030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-140030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-140030-
Adak to Kiska-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-140030-
Kiska to Attu-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-140030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-140030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-140030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-140030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
349 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

906 
FZAK52 PAFC 132332
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141245-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof volcano, 53 nm northwest of Dutch Harbor, is currently 
active. 

A strong front over the southwest Alaska coast will weaken tonight.
A 1002 mb low 260 NM south of Adak moves 175 NM southeast of Sand 
Point at 1002 mb by Mon evening...then moves to the southern Gulf of
Alaska Tue.

$$

PKZ150-141245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-141245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-141245-
Bristol Bay-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt by midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Patchy fog.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-141245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-141245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-141245-
Unalaska Bay-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-141245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-141245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-141245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-141245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-141245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-141245-
Adak to Kiska-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-141245-
Kiska to Attu-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-141245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-141245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-141245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-141245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
332 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1234 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Well the weather "show" is starting to get underway. The
vertically stacked low over the northwest Gulf continues to advect
plenty of moisture into southern AK with broad southerly flow. It
is very slowing tracking off to the northeast this morning and
will continue that track through the day. Widespread showers are
evident on the Middleton and Kenai radars, with the most
consistent precipitation along the north Gulf coast. This low is
also making for some stronger easterly winds along the coast as it
pushes mass up against the terrain.

The second, stronger low is diving south into Western AK with the
help of a 105 kt jet. The associated cold front is just starting
to move onshore near the Kuskokwim Delta. The rain shield
associated with it is rather impressive, stretching from the
Alaska Peninsula up through the Yukon Valley. Behind the low, an
unstable airmass is apparent with all the open cell cumulus
clouds tracking towards the Pribilof Islands from the Bering
Strait. This is bringing some gusting northerly winds to this
region for the first time in several weeks. Light flow over the
Central and Western Aleutians continues to allow widespread marine
stratus and patchy fog to plague these areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in great agreement with the timing of the front as it
sweeps across the AOR today. Minor differences exist in the exact
placement of the heaviest QPF over the weekend due to small
differences in the handling of weak waves aloft. Overall though,
confidence is high that the front and its associated rain
currently over the west coast will move into Southcentral by
tonight.

Forecast confidence quickly drops off Monday night into Tuesday
as models are having difficulty in the handling of the strength
and position of a low moving into the Gulf. The NAM is the
southern outlier keeping the feature over the southern Gulf while
the EC brings a stronger low and associated rain to the northern
Gulf coast. A more middle ground GFS solution was used in the
handling of this low for the morning forecast package, however
only minor edits were made to Tuesday's forecast due to model
discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The rain will vary in intensity as it moves through in
pulses today. The result will be VFR ceilings which could dip to
MVFR at just about any time, especially in heavier showers. Winds
this evening will be quite tricky. As the front approaches, we
should see an increase in flow from the southeast. Then as the
front starts to move through, the winds will become a bit more
gusty and start to bend to a more south to southwest direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Unsettled weather continues across Southcentral Alaska. A large
cold upper low and associated trough over Bristol Bay this
morning moves over the Kenai Peninsula tonight. The upper low
weakens as it moves into the southeast Copper River Basin Sunday
evening. Cooling temperatures aloft with this feature will
increase the instability across much of Southcentral with isolated
thunderstorms expected over the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin today/evening and the Copper River on Sunday. Thunderstorms
are also possible over the warmer waters of the northern Gulf this
afternoon into Sunday morning. Widespread showers/rain moderate
to heavy at times across Southcentral today/tonight will slowly
diminish from the West overnight and into Sunday. Westerly to
southwesterly gales/gale- force gusts are expected with cold
advection over the Western Gulf this afternoon through Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Widespread precipitation is already on the radar at Bethel. The
surface low is just north of Bethel. As time elapses...anticipate
further deepening and the upper level shortwave will become
negatively tilted. Expect widespread showers with high elevation
snow. The nose of the jet will dive into the AK Peninsula with
the core going directly over Katmai National Park tonight. This
will prove to be a fast moving system although the tight pressure
gradient and associated gusty winds will remain over the AKPEN
for the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The latest ASCAT pass depicts a clear wind shift over the Bering
with the cold front near the Pribilof Islands. Expect the rapidly
moving front to continue to surge south and then the supporting
upper low will curve inland later today. The tail of the front
will bring showers to the Aleutians with the highest storm total
amounts east of Cold Bay. Aloft a vigorous jet core will push
along the eastern Bering and into Bristol Bay resulting in gusty
winds. All the while...a secondary disturbance south of the
Aleutian Chain will propagate eastward with the northern edge of
the precipitation shield taking a glancing blow at the
archipelago.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
One important change in the models early next week has been a
trend towards a more progressive upper level trough over the
mainland late Sunday. As a result there is now general consensus
that weak high pressure will develop over the south mainland Mon-
Tue between the departing low and the next low diving southward
into the Eastern Bering. This high pressure should bring a brief
break in the active weather pattern to much of Southcentral early
next week, however there is very good agreement that a series of
arctic troughs will move through the Mainland and Eastern Bering
into late next week. There are some timing/intensity issues in
the models from these trough, so forecast confidence is low on the
exact details of the long term forecast. Forecast confidence is
however good with the overall trend of continued cool, wet, and
fall-like conditions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 180 181 131 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO/RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...MC