Gale Warning 345, NWS Anchorage, AK

937 
FZAK62 PAFC 221153
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-230045-
353 AM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Bogoslof Volcano at 54N 168W remains active.

A 996 mb low near 50N 168E moves to 50N 172E at 999 mb this
afternoon. This system moves to 53N 175E at 1004 mb Fri afternoon 
before phasing in with a secondary low tracking near 48N 171E at 
998 mb Sat morning. An associated front over the Western Aleutians
moves into the central Bering/Aleutians by Thu night before 
elongating and continues to weaken through Sat Morning.

$$

PKZ411-230045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
353 AM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-230045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
353 AM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-230045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
353 AM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-230045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
353 AM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

641 
FZAK62 PAFC 222348
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-231415-
348 PM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Bogoslof Volcano at 54N 168W remains active.

A 998 mb low at 50N 172E moves to 54N 174E at 1001 mb and
dissipates Sat morning. The associated front arches over the
Bering through Sat afternoon. A 994 mb North Pacific low moves to
52n 179e by Sat afternoon. The associated front stretches into 
the North Pacific through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-231415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 PM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-231415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 PM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-231415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 PM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-231415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 PM AKDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There are two main lows spread out across the area. One is sitting
over the eastern Gulf while the other is tracking east towards the
Western Aleutians from the North Pacific. In between these lows
there is ridging that stretches over the Central Aleutians,
across the Bering and through the central mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement with the main synoptic features
through the mid term. There remain some minor issues with timing
and placement of systems approaching late in the week but impacts
from these differences will be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low is still over the Gulf of Alaska with a
shortwave rotating around it bringing rain into the southern
Copper River Basin and Prince William Sound areas this morning.
Precipitation should diminish in these areas this afternoon.

Farther north in the central to northern Copper River Basin as
well as westward into the Susitna Valley the atmosphere is more
unstable and there may be some breaks in the clouds which could
kick off some afternoon thunderstorms in these areas. Areas of
southcentral near Cook Inlet should stay in the stable marine air
which will not be conducive for widespread showers activity.

The southwest flow up Cook Inlet the next two to three days will
keep the region in the marine air and this could keep stratus
packed up along the Chugach and Kenai mountains for a good part of
the next few days. This is one of the uncertainties for the next
few days as this would keep cooler temperatures in the Cook Inlet
area should this marine layer stratus persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and Thu)...
Relatively quiet weather will transpire for the next couple of
days. Today will start out with another round of marine stratus,
especially along the coast and into part of the Delta and Bristol
Bay. Some of the stratus will be compressed enough to lead to some
patchy fog through the morning. By afternoon, a closed upper level
high will start to build over the area from the AK Interior. This
should lead to a dry day for most areas with just some isolated
showers expected along the AK and Aleutian Ranges. Marine clouds
could hold on a bit longer across the Delta, so opted to keep
temperatures a bit cooler there than the rest of the area.

By Thursday, some weak instability starts to creep west from the
AK Range while a fairly sharp trough drops in from the Bering
Strait. Any convection that does develop Thu afternoon-evening
should be quite limited in both severity and extent. This is due
to the lack of any real "trigger" mechanism and/or steering flow.
So for now, have left just isolated thunderstorms along the AK
Range with a chance of showers elsewhere across the higher terrain
of Bristol Bay. Mid-level high pressure holds across most areas
Thu, which should lead to a mostly dry day. The exception to this
is the northern coast of the Delta where the afore mentioned
trough could bring some steady rain by late in the day. The trough
and associated rain will struggle to make any inland progress. But
it could leave much of the area vulnerable to fog come Fri
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
A deepening area of low pressure will impact the Western Aleutians
while weak ridging keeps marine stratus/fog over the Eastern
Bering. The most significant weather can be found along a gale-
force front that will push into Shemya this evening. This system
will also bring a healthy amount of rain with it. It will slowly
track to the east bringing rain and some gale-force winds to Adak
by Thu afternoon. High pressure over the Eastern Bering will keep
conditions rather quiet from Dutch Harbor to the Pribilof Islands
through the Alaska Peninsula. Marine stratus across that area
could lead to some pockets of drizzle and patchy fog, especially
during the overnight hours when stability increases. Winds will
remain very light under the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The upper level ridge from south of the Aleutians into southwest
Alaska across the interior is still progged to break down late
Friday into Saturday as the upper low over the Gulf of Alaska
pushes north while the upper level Arctic trough digs south into
the interior. This will be short lived as the upper level ridge
is still on tap to build into the interior from the north Pacific
Sunday. Meanwhile out over the Bering Sea a large upper low will
move across the central Bering Sea through the weekend. Beginning
Monday this upper low and the associated upper trough push into
the eastern Bering Sea producing moist cool southerly flow over
the western mainland by Tuesday. The upper ridge is pushed east
over the panhandle by Wednesday morning.

The Thermal trough across the interior should return Thursday
through Sunday. Monday the warmest low level air will shift to the
eastern interior. The southwest mainland will cool and moisten
beginning Monday.

Over the eastern Bering Sea and eastern Aleutians the weather
will transition from marine stratus and fog to a wetter and
windier regime one would expect with the surface low and
associated front moving across the Bering Sea and sweeping across
the Aleutians through the weekend.

Model agreement has remained consistent through the long term.
The national guidance remained heavily weighted toward the
operational model guidance through the weekend then follows the
GFS into the mid week time frame as the EC becomes more of an
outlier.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...176 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...SA