Gale Warning 332, NWS Anchorage, AK

730 
FZAK51 PAFC 161735 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

UPDATED 119 120 AND 125

PKZ197-170645-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVES EASTWARD AS
A WEATHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS 
MORNING. THIS FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INLAND AND DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF 
COAST WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. BY THU MORNING A TROUGH 
ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

$$

PKZ119-170645-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-170645-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-170645-
RESURRECTION BAY-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-170645-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-170645-
PORT VALDEZ-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-170645-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN 
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-170645-
VALDEZ ARM-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-170645-
PASSAGE CANAL-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-170645-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-170645-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-170645-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-170645-
CHINIAK BAY-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-170645-
MARMOT BAY-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-170645-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-170645-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-170645-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-170645-
KACHEMAK BAY-
935 AM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

344 
FZAK51 PAFC 162325
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171215-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST BY EARLY WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP ALONG 
THE GULF COAST WED AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THU. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-171215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171215-
PORT VALDEZ-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171215-
VALDEZ ARM-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171215-
CHINIAK BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171215-
MARMOT BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE MAY 16 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
729 PM AKDT Mon May 15 2017

UPDATE TO LONGTERM

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level ridge extends over most of mainland Alaska today
and a double-centered upper level low over the Bering Sea.

The surface low in the Bering Sea is still being supported by the
upper level low and bringing in some areas of heavier rainfall to
the region as well as gusty winds. The front associated with the
low will make it into the southwest Gulf of Alaska by early
tomorrow morning.

There is still a little bit of instability in the Susitna Valley
and Copper River Basin which could bring in some showers...especially
over higher terrain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are is very good synoptic agreement today. The differences
in the Bering Sea region in regards to where the triple point
would develop look to be resolved with the NAM solution from
yesterday the one they converged around.

High resolution models are detecting the developing gap flow over
Southcentral Alaska tomorrow well and are used for some of the
details for gap winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through Tuesday. The potential
for afternoon or evening southeast winds is the only question to
address. While the Turnagain Arm winds will increase some this
afternoon, it looks like the strongest area will remain west of
the airport. Tomorrow will be a different story with SE Turnagain
Arm winds expected to impact the airport in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will continue to build over Southcentral Alaska,
keeping dry and clear conditions over the area through Tuesday
morning. The only exception remains the Copper River Basin, where
some residual moisture will keep some cloudy and showery
conditions over the area before clearing out this evening. A front
will track over Kodiak Island Tuesday morning, and continue
tracking northward over the Northern Gulf and Cook Inlet region by
early Wednesday morning. Rain and gusty winds are expected with
this system as it progresses northward. As the pressure gradient
tightens over the Turnagain Arm/Knik River Valley area and
Northern gulf coast, increased gap winds are expected through
Turnagain Arm/Knik River Valley and along the Copper River Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Tue and Wed)...
A quiet weather day today will give way to a more active pattern
for the next couple of days. A warm front is pushing through the
Central Aleutians and will make its way into Bristol Bay by early
Tue morning. Light rain will track up the Alaska Peninsula and
into King Salmon/Dillingham around daybreak. A strengthening
coastal ridge will push against this front, forcing it to take on
a more west to east orientation and start to fall apart through
Tue. However, the ridge will help to produce gusty southeast
winds through much of the southwest, especially through favored
gaps.

Wed will see the front fall apart as it slowly tracks
inland. This will allow the synoptic forced gusts to diminish
with more diurnally enhanced winds dominating. Models all indicate
a potent vort max rotating through the area near the Kuskokwim
Mountains on Wed afternoon. If there are a few breaks in the
clouds and some instability can build into the area, there should
be a decent shot from some isolated thunderstorms. Held off on
introducing those into the forecast at this point as it still 48
hours out in time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Tue and
Wed)...
The pattern remains much the same with a broad trough over the
Bering and weak pieces of energy rotating counter-clockwise
through it. The biggest changes today were to increase some of
the winds associated with the front lifting through the Central
Aleutians and increase precipitation potential over the Western
Bering with a shortwave dropping south. The winds should peak
tonight near the Alaska Peninsula and as the front gets squeezed
up against the west coast of the mainland. The shortwave dropping
through the Western Bering will bring another round of rain and
keep the small-craft winds blowing.
On Wed, a ridge tries to build in over the Western Aleutians. This
should bring a drying trend to the area. Winds will also be on a
downward trend as the surface low in the base of the trough drifts
east and weakens.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Tues through Sat)...

The forecast period commences with two closed lows influencing the
Aleutians...one south of Kiska Island and the other west of
Kodiak. Both the GFS ensemble mean and the ECMWF are tightly
clustered at 500 MB with both features... while the Canadian GEM
pings into the lead storm but continues to have run to run
continuity issues with the second storm. Due to the handling of
the overall pattern...have better confidence in the ECMWF and GFS.
The coastal ridge will set up over SE AK and block the first
system. Expect the surface low to fill but definitely ushering
moisture into the AK Peninsula and Kodiak Island. While the second
pushes into the Gulf of Alaska robust easterly winds and an
impulse will get ejected from the system bringing the next wave
of moisture to the region. This is looking to be a pretty wet
period for the AK Peninsula and Kodiak...with ridging over the
Bering and ridging over the SE AK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PS