Gale Warning 330, NWS Anchorage, AK

980 
FZAK52 PAFC 122342
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131245-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 998 MB LOW NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 1004 MB AND 
MOVE ONSHORE NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM ON SATURDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS LOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA ON SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON. EARLY SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN BERING AHEAD OF A FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS 
THAT IS ATTACHED TO A 997MB LOW 355 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA.

$$

PKZ150-131245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131245-
BRISTOL BAY-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-131245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SW WIND 20 KT 
INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 25 KT 
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131245-
UNALASKA BAY-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131245-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 30 KT. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-131245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-131245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
342 PM AKDT FRI MAY 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT Thu May 11 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Cold air aloft along the weak upper level trough extending out of
the Gulf of Alaska into the Susitna Valley. This is also causing
the atmosphere to be less stable in the Cook Inlet region than the
past few days which will lead to convection this afternoon and
evening. Details on how this has changed are in the model discussion
section. Areas over the Gulf of Alaska are too stable at lower
levels to have any convective activity.

Southwest mainland Alaska is unstable enough for some showers over
higher terrain, but there is not enough lift to produce any
thunderstorms.

The large low in the Aleutians was producing storm force winds
earlier today, but should be weakening as it heads eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
There are two takeaways from the models worth discussing. The
biggest one is the significant increase in instability forecasted
for today and tomorrow for the Susitna Valley southward through
the Kenai Peninsula. Yesterday's models had a small amount of
instability with higher values closer to the Talkeetna mountains
and the Copper River Basin. Today's 12Z and 18Z NAM shows a large
area of cape values 200 J/Kg or higher the whole swath from North
of Talkeetna to north of Homer, including the Anchorage and
Palmer/Wasilla areas. While GFS values are not quite as high
(which is typically the case), the pattern is the same and is
showing a much more unstable atmosphere over much of Southcentral
the next two days than was being indicated previously.

Models have also increased the winds around the low in the Bering
Sea and current forecasts reflect that increase in current and
projected wind speeds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The biggest question for this afternoon and evening
revolves around the potential for shower and isolated
thunderstorms to develop. The atmosphere is more unstable this
afternoon and convection will develop over the mountains. Steering
flow is weak, so believe these will remain over/near the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Showers and thunderstorms will again be a possibility this
evening for much of Southcentral as a nearly stationary upper
level trough remains overhead. Most of these showers should
develop along the mountains and then drift southward into the
lower elevations. The greatest risk for thunderstorms looks to
be with the strongest instability over the Talkeetna mountains
southward into the Matanuska Valley, as well as throughout the
Copper River Basin. Then on Friday the focus for thunderstorms
will shift northward into the Copper River Basin as a weakening
front moves into the Gulf. This front will remain well to the
Southcentral for Friday, which should allow for sunny and warm
day with temperatures rising well into 60's in most locations.
This period of warm weather will then break down this weekend as
an upper level trough approaches from the west. This system will
bring cooler/cloudier conditions to most areas for the upcoming
weekend with chances of rain mainly on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A pattern change is in store for the southwestern mainland. While
sunny skies and warm temperatures have dominated the region
today, satellite imagery currently indicates a front moving
eastward across the Alaska Peninsula. Although a fairly weak
front, it will bring showers to the southwest mainland coast, and
spread clouds further inland throughout the day on Friday. This
will help to keep temperatures lower across the region on Friday.
A low pressure system will approach the coast early Saturday
morning. This will increase the chance for showers across the
region Saturday as the low progresses further inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A 975 mb low is currently centered near the central Aleutians
where it is supporting gusty winds and showers across the western
Aleutians. Its associated front stretches across the Bering Sea
towards the Alaska Peninsula. This low will continue to bring
light showers and gusty winds as it drifts toward Bristol Bay and
moves inland on early Saturday morning. High Pressure will build
into the western Bering behind this low. This will help to stall
a front across the western Aleutians that is associated with a
north Pacific Low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The upper-low and attendant surface trough will continue its
eastward progress through the weekend. Confidence is increasing as
the majority of the models converge on a solution that brings the
low center from the western Gulf Saturday night to the southeastern
Gulf Sunday night. As the low moves out of Southcentral Alaska, a
brief drying trend will begin Sunday morning over the Mainland as
offshore flow sets up behind the low and a ridge of high pressure
builds in the upper-levels. Meanwhile behind the ridge, the next
longwave trough will dig through the north central Pacific,
encompassing the Aleutians as the next work week begins. A series
of surface low pressure systems will develop within the longwave
trough south of the western and central Aleutians, with eastward
progress limited by the downstream ridge. The net result at the
surface will be a continuation of the showery conditions over the
Aleutians and southern Bering Sunday through Tuesday. The ridge
that will build in over the southern Mainland is progged to shift
east Monday evening, allowing for the surface lows and associated
fronts over the Aleutians to move to the southwest Mainland Monday
night. This will bring a return of widespread rain chances for
the Mainland starting Monday night and continuing through the
middle of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EN
LONG TERM...RD