Gale Warning 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

034 
FZAK51 PAFC 050056 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051300-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THU...BEGINS TO WEAKEN THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUES
WEAKENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-051300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-051300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-051300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT BY LATE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-051300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUST
TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUST TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-051300-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-051300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-051300-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-051300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-051300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-051300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-051300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 45 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-051300-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-051300-
MARMOT BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-051300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 35 KT NORTHERN SHELIKOF.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 35 KT NORTHERN SHELIKOF
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-051300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. N OF ANCHOR POINT...N WIND 15 KT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-051300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-051300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
BY LATE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 AM AKST Wed Jan 4 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Southwesterly flow aloft along the northwestern periphery of the
strong upper level high continues to allow some cloudy conditions
to remain over parts of Southcentral into the early morning hours.
However, satellite imagery indicates a slight break in cloudy
conditions over the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage area, as a
shortwave trough moves over the Southwest mainland. The
additional upper level cloudiness did little to weaken the surface
inversions and stable conditions across the Anchorage Bowl and
Copper River Basin overnight. Low clouds and fog continue across
much of these areas, especially over the Anchorage Bowl where
widespread lower visibilities in dense fog are being observed.

Further west, high pressure continues to build over much of the
region, with a weakening front over the Southwest mainland keeping
some cloudy/foggy conditions and light showers over parts of the
mainland. A gale force front associated with a North Pacific low
south of the Kamchatka Peninsula has started to increase the south
to southeasterly flow over the Western Aleutians as seen in
passing ship observations just south of the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in relatively good agreement through the short
term. The models continue to handle the outflow wind event across
Prince William Sound and the Northern Gulf coast fairly well for
Wednesday through Friday. However, mesoscale edits will be
required to adequately capture the magnitude of the winds. Models
continue to struggle with the foggy conditions across the
Anchorage Bowl.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through this morning as
fog remains in place over the Anchorage bowl. There will however
be periods throughout the morning where ceilings and visibilities
will lift. By noon time, low level winds are expected to increase
to the point where fog over the Anchorage bowl should begin to
mix out. However, some foggy conditions will likely linger in the
vicinity through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level short-wave tracking eastward across the Interior
has helped to flatten out the ridge over Southcentral. Weak cold
air advection behind the wave will filter down across Southcentral
Alaska today, helping to weaken the very strong inversions in
place. This will bring an end to the multi-day dense fog event
in the Anchorage area, though isolated areas of fog will likely
linger into tonight.

The weakened ridge will pave the way for another short-wave currently
over the eastern Bering Sea to cross Southcentral tonight bringing
additional cooling. An upper level ridge will then rapidly build
over the Bering Sea on Thursday which will force a much more
significant short-wave southward from the Arctic across Mainland
Alaska. This will usher in much colder air and lead to a significant
wind event for Southcentral Thursday through Friday.

This is the type of event where just about everywhere will see
some wind. With falling temperatures wind chills will drop below
zero area-wide by Friday morning. The strongest winds will be in
the Valdez to Thompson Pass corridor as well as across the Copper
River Delta, with High Wind Watches in effect for both locations.
These areas are in the ideal location on the polar side of the
upper jet with a descending tropopause and high static stability.
Forcing is not ideal to start out (especially for Valdez), with
low level northwesterly flow when short-wave drops through Eastern
Prince William Sound Thursday afternoon. However, things line up
better Thursday night through Friday as flow shifts around to
north to northeast and the tropopause continues to descend. Thus,
there is potential for damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main forecast concern for Wednesday and Thursday will be fog.
The front of the previous few days will still be draped over the
eastern mainland still bringing light snow to the Alaska Range.
Fog will linger around the Bristol Bay area this morning before
lifting by afternoon. The front will weaken and exit today
ushering in a new synoptic pattern.

A stout high pressure will continue to build over the far eastern
Bering Sea. The position of the surface high pressure makes the
fog forecast a tricky one. It is far enough off shore to keep much
of the Kuskokwim Delta in light westerly flow which may preclude
the radiational cooling needed for fog. Secondly, a front (off the
surface) will bring some cloud cover overnight which will also
hinder radiational cooling. However, the ridging is building from
the surface all the way up through 300 mb. The type of full column
ridging will promote massive subsidence through the column and a
low-level subsidence inversion. Combine all of these factors
together and I think the evidence points to more of a low
stratus/patchy fog event rather than straight fog.

The aforementioned front will bring a short period of light snow
to the Alaska Range late tonight into Thursday morning. The post-
frontal air mass (east of the Kuskokwim Delta) will be an arctic
air mass bringing some gusty winds to the Kuskokwim Valley and
Bristol Bay area along with much colder temperatures than the
previous week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Expect pretty benign weather for much of the Bering for a change.
The exception is the Western Aleutians where several gale-force
fronts will graze the Western Aleutians/Bering, bringing bouts of
rain. High pressure will dominate the eastern Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Thursday evening, a high amplitude upper level ridge will be
centered over eastern Bering and west coast of Alaska extending
all the way from 45N to the arctic. For southwest Alaska the ridge
will bring an extended period of dry weather with fog and low
stratus being the main forecast challenge. For southcentral Alaska
the position of the upper level ridge axis will put the area under
strong northerly flow aloft enhancing offshore flow.

Following this time period, the upper level ridge shifts east,
removing the upper level support necessary for high winds.
However, with the very deep cold pool which will be in place over
the Copper River Basin, the offshore pressure gradient will
continue to increase keeping the north to northeasterly gap winds
blowing strong through the weekend.

The large blocking ridge shifts gradually east so that it is
centered over more of mainland Alaska and remain in place through
at least next Tuesday bringing dry weather to all but the Western
and Central Aleutians. Starting Wednesday or Thursday the models
have begun to introduce a shortwave or series of shortwaves digging
down from the northwest which could bring additional surges of
cold air and strong offshore flow.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 131 135. Dense Fog Advisory 101.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 121 125 127 129 130 131 132 177 178
185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...JR