Gale Warning 328, NWS Anchorage, AK

109 
FZAK52 PAFC 111126
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120030-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF AMCHITKA WILL WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 110 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL FRI NIGHT. A SEPARATE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA FRI 
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-120030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-120030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-120030-
BRISTOL BAY-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-120030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-120030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-120030-
UNALASKA BAY-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-120030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-120030-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-120030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-120030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-120030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 
FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-120030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PAC SIDE.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT PAC SIDE...W WIND 20 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 10
FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PAC SIDE.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-120030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-120030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-120030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-120030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-120030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKDT Wed May 10 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A pattern shift is underway as an upper level ridge amplifies
over the eastern Bering. The low that moved southeast of Kodiak
yesterday continues on a southeast track into the Northeast
Pacific. Another low from the North Pacific is pushing toward the
western Aleutians. One other feature to note in the upper levels is
a weak short wave swinging across the southwest this morning;
however, there is little effect from this energy as subsident dry
air moves to the surface ahead of the ridge.

Middleton radar indicates rapidly diminishing rain showers with
echoes primarily along the western gulf. Across the Bering, fog
is developing across the eastern waters while south to east flow
increases across the western areas along with a frontal boundary
moving across the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the overall synoptic trends
through the end of the week which remains progressive as the front
along the western Aleutians keeps an easterly pace. The ECMWF was
used for updates across the Bering and Southwest while the NAM
continued with the best resolution for Southcentral and Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through Thursday morning. Winds
will be relatively light shifting from the northwest this morning
to west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Weak ridging aloft moves across the MAT-SU Valleys and Anchorage
Bowl this afternoon. While further east a persistent trough
extends from the Gulf of Alaska to over the Copper River Basin.
The main focus for showers this afternoon will be over the Copper
River Basin, Talkeetna Mountains, and Chugach Mountains. The most
favorable stability indices for thunderstorm potential will be
over the Copper River Basin this afternoon and early evening and
then again on Thursday. Showers elsewhere will be mainly confined
to along the mountains in the afternoon. A front moves into the
western Gulf Thursday night bringing rain to Kodiak Island.

Outflow winds are expected to ramp up over the North Gulf Coast
and Eastern Kenai Peninsula tonight and continue into early
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A dry upper level wave moving southward into Southwest Alaska will
usher in a drier air mass for the next couple days. While there
should still be the usual cumulus fields developing in the
afternoon, the drier air should prevent any thunderstorm
formation the next couple afternoons. Building high pressure will
cause diminishing cloud cover as we head into Thursday. Warmer air
advecting into the area aloft will send temperatures to their
warmest levels this year for many areas on Thursday afternoon as
parts of the lower Kuskokwim Valley approach 70 degrees. Some
cumulus development is still expected on Thursday afternoon, but
is not expected until later in the day. The next front will
approach the area late in the day Thursday, with increasing rain
chances Thursday night, especially along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Two low pressure systems are affecting the western and central
Bering this morning. The low centered west of Attu is transferring
its energy to a rapidly intensifying low moving north towards the
central Aleutians. It is this developing low that will be the big
weather-maker across the Bering for the next couple days. Over the
day today, the low will take advantage of strong baroclinicity, a
perfect position in the left exit region of a strong jet streak,
and abundant moisture to become a low generating gales across much
of the western and central Aleutians and Bering.

Fortunately the upper level energy helping the low will quickly
depart from the system tonight, leaving the formidable storm to
cease intensifying and slow its forward movement to a drift right
over the western and central Aleutians. It will meander there into
Thursday before another weaker upper level jet streak begins to
help the low take a more easterly track across the Bering by
Thursday night. This will bring the low to roughly the middle of
the Bering by Friday morning, heading towards the Pribilofs.

The winds associated with the low, especially on its southern and
western flanks will be in no hurry to diminish, as high pressure
builds south of the Aleutians. Thus, much of the chain may see
periods with winds above 40 mph with higher gusts over the next
couple days. This will be in addition to 20 foot swells on the
Pacific side and driving rain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Confidence in the midterm is starting to increase as forecast
guidance is starting to adequately handle the upcoming systems. The
first system that will be sliding across the southern Bering is now
progged to weaken into a trough of low pressure in Bristol Bay by
this weekend. This will bring continued wind and rain to the Bering
and Western coasts. Model differences start to show late Saturday
and into Sunday with how this trough will progress.
Overall cloudcover is expected to increase through the weekend,
but any good chances for precipitation are still looking minimal
for the Anchorage area. Temperatures with daytime heating will
continue to approach the upper 50s with this Friday being the
best chance for the official high to reach 60 for the first time
this year.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 173 174 175 1756 177 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
LONG TERM...SS