Gale Warning 325, NWS Anchorage, AK

623 
FZAK51 PAFC 072330
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081245-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1007 MB LOW 130 NM WEST OF KLAWOCK MOVES TO 20 NM EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AND DISSIPATES MIDDAY MONDAY. SEVERAL TROUGHS 
PUSH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-081245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 25 KT
BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-081245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-081245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-081245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-081245-
PORT VALDEZ-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-081245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-081245-
VALDEZ ARM-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-081245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-081245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-081245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-081245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-081245-
CHINIAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-081245-
MARMOT BAY-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-081245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-081245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-081245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-081245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKDT Sat May 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Longwave pattern shows an upper level low over the central
Aleutians, with an upper level ridge building into the mainland
portion of Alaska. A second upper level low remains parked far to
the south over the southern Panhandle. A strong 150 knot jet max
is currently moving around the base of the low in the west and
into the ridge over the mainland. This jet is supporting a
developing triple point low that is moving into the Gulf of
Alaska, as seen on satellite.

Ahead of the developing feature, the remnants of a trough that
moved through southwest Alaska this morning can be seen making
their way into the Interior. This trough brought wetting rains to
southwest Alaska through early this morning, but as it moves
northward it continues to dry out and all that remains are some
isolated showers and mid-level clouds. Meanwhile, along the
Pacific, southerly flow ahead of the developing low is bringing
consistent moderate rainfall to Kodiak and strengthening the winds
through Cook Inlet and the Barren Islands. In the Bering Sea,
fog persists on the warm side of the low, while gusty northerly
winds on the western side are combining with slightly unstable
conditions to keep the ceilings a bit higher.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models seem to have come into agreement on the track of the
developing wave along the front in the north Pacific. Consensus
seems to be that it will become a fully developed closed low just
south of Kodiak Island, and then move across the Alaska Peninsula
into Bristol Bay. NAM was chosen as the model of preference in
both the east and the west for higher resolution on the details.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Turnagain arm winds are expected to move over the airport during
the afternoon hours, but these may not eventuate if the down-Inlet
winds are stronger than expected. High clouds overhead are
tempering valley heating so SE winds at the airport are not
expected to be especially strong.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The weather front over the northern Gulf will slowly move
northward tonight, reach the north Gulf coast Sunday morning, and
move inland Sunday afternoon. Most of the precipitation with this
front will be confined to the coast and coastal mountains. A few
showers are possible over inland areas, mainly over the Kenai
peninsula. Winds over marine areas will generally be Gale force,
with some local Storm force winds near the Barren Islands. Winds
will diminish as the front moves onshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near critical fire weather conditions are expected late this
afternoon and early evening out of the Knik river and along the
Copper river, with gusty winds (to 25 mph) and low RH's (15 to 25
percent). Only temperature criteria (65 degrees or warmer) will
not be met, with upper 50s to lower 60s expected. On Sunday,
minimum RH's will be a little higher and winds a little lower as
the surface gradient weakens and some moisture moves into the
area. That trend will also continue on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Current rainy conditions brought on by a northward tracking wave
this morning continue to taper off, mainly along the southwest
coast this afternoon. The vertically stacked low just south of
Nikolski will continue to weaken over the North Pacific, as a
triple point low south of Kodiak Island continues to ramp up and
close in on the Alaska Peninsula early this evening. This newly
formed and strengthening system will move across the Alaska
Peninsula late tonight and bring rainfall to a large portion of
Southwest Alaska, with the Bristol Bay area receiving the brunt of
the rainfall. This system will also generate some gusty gap winds
through the typical gaps along the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges.
Rainfall will largely become more showery on Sunday before
becoming more isolated for Monday morning into Tuesday, as the low
tracks through the eastern Aleutians and back into the Northern
Pacific.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A vertically stacked low pressure system south of Nikolski will
slide eastward throughout the day while weakening, as a triple
point low develops south of the Alaska Peninsula late this
afternoon. This newly developing system will result in gusty
winds through Shelikof Strait and across portions of the Alaska
Peninsula, as well as bringing another round of rainy conditions
to the area. These two low pressure systems will merge Sunday
afternoon, and gradually weaken over the north Pacific while
slowly tracking eastward toward the Gulf of Alaska. The next
frontal system will approach the western Aleutians/Bering Sunday
afternoon, as a low pressure system pushes off the coast of
Kamchatka. A weak triple point low will develop just west of the
western Aleutians Monday morning, as the associated front begins
tracking through the Western Aleutians/Bering. This system will
bring gusty winds and rain to the area as it tracks eastward
during the day monday. The front will then dissipate by Tuesday
morning over the central Aleutians and Bering, as the parent low
dissipates over the western Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 131 GALE WARNING...119 120 132 138
139 174 175 176 177

. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PEPE
LONG TERM...LF