Gale Warning 307, NWS Anchorage, AK

471 
FZAK62 PAFC 192339
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 PM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201330-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 981 MB LOW AT 50N 173W MOVES TO 45N 164W AT 986 MB SAT
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SHIFTS TO THE 
EASTERN BERING SAT MORNING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA 
LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SAT MORNING BEFORE 
TRACKING TO NORTHERN/EASTERN BERING BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-201330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-201330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-201330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-201330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 PM AKDT FRI MAY 19 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

718 
FZAK62 PAFC 201136
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 AM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210115-
336 AM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN 
ALEUTIANS SAT MORNING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHERN AND 
EASTERN BERING SAT EVENING BEFORE EXITING NORTH OF THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-210115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
336 AM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-210115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
336 AM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-210115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
336 AM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND UP TO 10 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-210115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
336 AM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

480 
FZAK62 PAFC 202342
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 PM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-211300-
342 PM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SUN. A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON. 

$$

PKZ411-211300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
342 PM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-211300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
342 PM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-211300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
342 PM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-211300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
342 PM AKDT SAT MAY 20 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S WIND 20 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

408 
FZAK62 PAFC 211130
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 AM AKDT SUN MAY 21 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220115-
330 AM AKDT SUN MAY 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS MOVES 
NORTH AND EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MON AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW 
TRACKS NEAR 58N 167E MON MORNING THEN MOVES TO 59N 175E AT 997 MB
TUE MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON
MORNING THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN BERING AND THE CENTRAL 
ALEUTIANS BY TUE MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SECONDARY LOW 
DEVELOPS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AT 1003 MB.

$$

PKZ411-220115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
330 AM AKDT SUN MAY 21 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
330 AM AKDT SUN MAY 21 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
330 AM AKDT SUN MAY 21 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
330 AM AKDT SUN MAY 21 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKDT Thu May 18 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper level feature over southern Alaska is the low
centered near Kodiak Island with a broad trough extending
northward into the interior of the state. The surface low
associated with this upper level low is weak and nearly
vertically stacked. However, it is still enough to give lift for
widespread rain over the Gulf region. Numerous shortwaves moving
in the weak south to southeast flow over southcentral. These waves
have been enough to keep rain over a good part of southcentral as
there has been little to no downslope to diminish the rainfall.

A strong jet stream which is peaking at over 190 kt is running
south of the Aleutians and feeding a strengthening low in that
area. This low will stay south of the forecast area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
While models remain in good synoptic agreement into the weekend,
they are struggling with the nuances that are producing the
precipitation in the Cook Inlet region. Hi-resolution NAMnest
appears to once again best choice for localized gap winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Predominantly VFR conditions will persist with an outside
chance for a brief MVFR ceiling Friday morning. Southeast winds
should increase some this afternoon and evening but not as strong
as the past few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cloudy, cool, and moist conditions will continue through Friday as
a series of disturbances move through the area. Due to widespread
clouds/rain today over the Susitna Valley, there is some question
in how strong the southeast winds will be around the Anchorage
Bowl this evening, with recent guidance suggesting that it will
be much weaker and short lived than the last two evening. The
forecast was trended down to reflect that, however there is a
chance that the thermal low over the interior will not be strong
enough to support to bring winds into town at all. Otherwise rain
showers will continue over the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska
Valley this evening before diminishing during the late evening as
downsloping ahead of the next low moving into the Gulf develops.
This will be a brief period of downsloping as another round of
showers will then move into the area Friday morning, followed by
generally cloudy and showery conditions that will persist into
Saturday. Slightly warmer and drier conditions will then spread
into most areas late in the day Saturday as weak high pressure
moves overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level low south of Kodiak will continue transporting
moisture and a series of waves of precipitation into Southwest
Alaska over the next couple days. Thus, except for possibly the
northern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta, cloudy skies
will continue to be the norm. With each wave of moisture,
scattered showers are likely to develop over much of the region,
especially the closer to the Alaska Range you go. The upper level
low will drift towards the Bristol Bay region by Saturday
afternoon, which will only prolong this dreary weather pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Fog and low stratus will remain dominant across nearly all of the
Bering Sea from this afternoon right into Saturday. Continued
northeasterly flow throughout the Bering coupled with an upper
level ridge, will keep the weather pattern locked in place. The
warm air associated with the upper level ridge overriding the
cool, moisture-laden air near the surface promotes widespread
stratus and fog formation and maintenance. Elsewhere, a North
Pacific low is forecast to track well south of the Aleutians on
Friday, but the northern periphery of its wind field will kick up
small craft winds and seas as it passes by.

A strong front moving into the western Bering on Saturday will be
the next system to impact the region, and will dissipate the
fog/stratus as it moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Saturday night through Thursday)...
A highly amplified pattern with support from a robust subtropical
jet over the North Pacific will lead to active weather over the
next week. Beginning Saturday night, a short-wave and surface
front lifting northward across the Gulf of Alaska will spread rain
to the north Gulf coast/Prince William Sound region by Sunday
morning, with clouds and showers spreading inland during the
remainder of the day. With deep southerly flow aloft (up the west
side of a western North American ridge) expect abundant moisture
transport leading to moderate to heavy rain along the coast.

Meanwhile, the strong subtropical jet will drive a trough eastward
across the Bering Sea, with the leading edge reaching Southwest
Alaska on Monday. There are some differences in the handling of a
cut-off low out ahead of this as well as with track of individual
short-waves moving through the long-wave trough. This produces a
blurry picture of what may happen over Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska Monday through Tuesday. However, most solutions point
toward a pretty wet scenario, with potential for widespread steady
rain over Southcentral.

As the initial trough exits, medium range solutions are now
trending toward the ECMWF, which has been depicting amplification
along the Aleutians, with a ridge building into Southwest Alaska
Tuesday and Southcentral Alaska Wednesday. If this does verify,
would expect a day of really nice weather. However, the next
trough will quickly follow bring clouds and rain back into the
forecast.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutians, a continuous supply of short-
waves transiting the upper low/trough will produce unsettled
weather, with occasional rain and wind region-wide.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...SB