Gale Warning 304, NWS Anchorage, AK

176 
FZAK62 PAFC 100619 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1019 PM AKDT TUE MAY 9 2017

UPDATED 414

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101930-
1019 PM AKDT TUE MAY 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA
DISSIPATES THU MORNING. A 991 MB LOW AT 50N 166E MOVES TO 51N 178W
AT 990 MB WED AFTERNOON THEN TO 53N 179W BY THU AFTERNOON. THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONT STRETCHES OVER THE ALEUTIANS WHILE THE TRAILING 
FRONT EXTENDS TOWARDS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

$$

PKZ411-101930-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
1019 PM AKDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-101930-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
1019 PM AKDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-101930-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
1019 PM AKDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-101930-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
1019 PM AKDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 30 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

381 
FZAK62 PAFC 101146
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 AM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110145-
346 AM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 50N 170E WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A 996 MB 
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 50N 179E THIS MORNING AND WILL STRENGTHEN TO
981 MB AS IT MOVES TO 52N 178E THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 993 MB AS IT MOVES TO 55N 173W FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-110145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
346 AM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO
13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-110145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-110145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-110145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
346 AM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

331 
FZAK62 PAFC 102324
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
324 PM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111330-
324 PM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 991 MB LOW AT 52N 177E WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THEN 
MOVE TO 57N 170W AT 1002 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT 
WILL PUSH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE THE TRAILING FRONT EXTENDS 
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN 
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-111330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
324 PM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-111330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
324 PM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-111330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
324 PM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E OF 175W...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING 
SW 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF 175W...NE WIND 25 KT 
BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-111330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
324 PM AKDT WED MAY 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

317 
FZAK62 PAFC 111126
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120130-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 52N 177E WILL WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AS IT MOVES TO
59N 168W FRI NIGHT. A SEPARATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE 
SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-120130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-120130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-120130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-120130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
326 AM AKDT THU MAY 11 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKDT Tue May 9 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The broad low that has resided near the Alaska Peninsula during
the last several days is now starting to move east. An upper ridge
has amplified behind this system, centering over the central
Bering early this morning. A North Pacific low nearing the western
Aleutians is slowing its momentum as the ridge blocks its
northeastward progression. At the surface, winds are tapering off
this morning through channeled terrain along the coasts of
Southcentral. Showers along the northern Gulf are diminishing as the
surface low near Kodiak drifts east. Light rain developed across the
Matanuska Valley yesterday evening along a weak upper wave and
continues to initiate along a narrow corridor from the Talkeetna
Mountains to northern Cook Inlet early this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement with the synoptic pattern
along the southern mainland and the Gulf, but differ in their
solutions with a North Pacific low moving up to the central
Aleutians on Wednesday. The model choice for this low was the GFS
which was the middle range solution on the 00Z model run. This slow
moving system is expected to have relatively low impacts with small
craft winds and rain as it takes and eastward track; however, there
is still some uncertainty in its strength. The high resolution NAM
was used to make minor updates across Southcentral with slight
increases in wind speeds along coastal gaps.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday. Rain
developing along a shortwave moving south over the Matanuska
Valley is not expected to move into West Anchorage as a surface
ridge remains along Prince William Sound. Southeasterly flow this
morning should shift to the west this afternoon with an afternoon
sea breeze, then taper off tonight and remain light through
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

In general, northeasterly flow aloft is expected across Southcentral
through tonight. Weak upper impulses will track south in the flow
and help to maintain periods of showers across the mainland.
Stability indices across the Alaska Range bordering the Copper River
Basin indicate the potential for wet thunderstorms. The upper
steering flow would tend to push them south off the range this
afternoon and evening. There is potential for thunderstorms again in
the Copper River Basin on Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere, Wednesday
will bring an overall drying trend, especially along the coasts.
However, there will still be potential for showers inland into
Wednesday night.

Surface pressure gradients will be fairly light today so expect
sea breezes to be the main wind regime this afternoon and
evening. Outflow winds along the Gulf coast/eastern Kenai
Peninsula will start ramping up Wednesday as pressure gradients
tighten in response to the intensification of the north Gulf
surface trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level wave digging southward will help provide the
forcing for isolated afternoon thunderstorms along the Alaska
Range today. Increased moisture in the mid-levels ahead of it should
provide just enough fuel for a few thunderstorms, though some
limiting factors remain: dry air in the low levels and weak forcing.
Winds in most areas should remain light and variable.

For both Wednesday and especially Thursday afternoons,
diminishing cloud cover with building high pressure will allow for
ever-increasing sunshine across Southwest Alaska. Temperatures are
expected to spike into the upper 60s in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
on Wednesday afternoon and around 70 on Thursday afternoon. The
warm temperatures will promote low relative humidity levels as
well. Fortunately, high pressure will keep winds nearly calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A front over the central Bering Sea will continue to slowly press
eastward today into tonight, but will weaken with time as well.
The next big weather maker begins making its move into the western
Aleutians on Wednesday. A very favorable jet streak pattern will
lead to rapid cyclogenesis, as the surface low pressure system
makes full utilization of the left exit region of the subtropical
jet. Strong baroclinicity will also favor the development of the
low. Thus, over the course of the day Wednesday, look for rapid
strengthening of the winds across nearly the entire Aleutian
chain. The low itself will slow its movement to a crawl on
Wednesday night as the upper level low moves overhead, making the
system vertically stacked. The strongest winds will then be found
on the southwest quadrant of the low as cool air races along the
southern periphery of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A lower than normal confidence extended forecast is shaping up for
this forecast package. The first of systems to impact the
forecast area will begin in the Bering mid week as low pressure is
set to advance across the Western Aleutian chain Weds night/Thur
morning. The movement of this low is what is causing the
confidence to falter this afternoon. Earlier global guidance was
suggesting that a weak jet streak would develop across the chain
and shift this low south of the Gulf of Alaska and south to the
Southeast panhandle. As later guidance begins to roll in, the
thought is now shifting towards a weakening stacked low that will
slide across the Southwest mainland this weekend. National went
with an ensemble approach that seems to favor the more progressive
movement to SE. Further clarity should show as we get closer to
midweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
LONG TERM...SS