Gale Warning 303, NWS Anchorage, AK

962 
FZAK61 PAFC 060004
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-061345-
404 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS TO A FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF SAT
MORNING. THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. A
993 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL LOOP TO 57N 157W AT 985 MB SUN 
MORNING THEN CONTINUES TO 56N 163W AT 989 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-061345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
404 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-061345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
404 PM AKDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

597 
FZAK61 PAFC 061138
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070100-
338 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 990 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 53N 154W SAT MORNING ALONG A FRONT 
ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF 
BY SUN AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. 
THE LOW THEN MERGES WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR 54N 164W AT 
993 MB MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-070100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
338 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ352-070100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
338 AM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

670 
FZAK61 PAFC 062352
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 PM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071500-
352 PM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 986 MB LOW AT 55N 152W MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO 57N
163W BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
352 PM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
352 PM AKDT SAT MAY 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

025 
FZAK61 PAFC 071147
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080115-
347 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 984 MB LOW AT 57N 155W MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW AT 994 MB NEAR 52N 161W BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MON 
AFTERNOON. THE LOW PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE GULF TUESDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES TO 52N 152W AT 999 MB.


$$

PKZ351-080115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
347 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ352-080115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
347 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 PM AKDT Thu May 4 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low over the mainland part of the state and into
the Gulf of Alaska has weakened into a trough while the low south
of the Aleutians has strengthened since yesterday.
Correspondingly, the surface low in the Gulf is significantly
weakening and beginning its drift southeastward where it will
dissipate Friday.
The surface low south of the Aleutians is near its maximum
intensity right now in the mid to upper 970s mb. This low is
becoming vertically sacked and will slowly move eastward and
weaken.
Areas of greatest instability over the mainland part of southern
Alaska this afternoon and evening are in the Susitna valley and
Western Kenai Peninsula with the Susitna Valley having the
greatest instability. In spite of this, it is still unlikely for
any thunderstorm development over the region today with just some
locally heavy showers. Some of the heavier showers could contain
some small hail as freezing levels are generally 4000 ft or less
this afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in good agreement with the two main weather
systems. What becomes worth noting is on Saturday when a triple
point low develops just southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. While all
the models have this low there is a bit of a difference as to how
fast this low moves through Sunday with the GFS being considerably
faster than any other solution. This will have an impact on the
timing of rain and winds in Bristol Bay, Kodiak, and the Alaska
Peninsula in particular.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through Friday. The Turnagain
Arm wind will keep gusty southeast winds at the airport well into
the evening and then should diminish as temperatures cool in the
Susitna Valley. Tomorrow's winds look to be more of a sea breeze
influence with light westerly winds.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Sunny and warm conditions will continue for much of Southcentral
through Friday as weak high pressure moves through the area. Ahead
of this approaching high pressure, a weakening pressure gradient
along the Gulf Coast will produce gap winds from Turnagain Arm
eastward into the Copper River this evening, along with gusty
southeast winds over the west Anchorage. These winds are expected
to be much weaker on Friday as high pressure moves through,
allowing for temperatures to rise into the low 60's for much of
the Anchorage Bowl and MatSu Valley's. Pleasant weather will then
continue into Saturday for much of interior Southcentral. Further
south, rain and gusty east winds will develop over Kodiak Island
late Friday-Saturday as a frontal system moves through. This system
will then spread into the north Gulf Coast for the remainder of
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Showers develop this evening along a trough situated across the
eastern Kuskokwim Valley and eastern areas of Bristol Bay.
Southerly flow returns across the region on Friday as the Bering
front pushes east toward the coast. The frontal boundary is
expected to push across the Alaska Peninsula by early Friday
afternoon. The coastal areas of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
should see rain developing during the late afternoon and early
evening. The front rapidly diminishes friday night into Saturday
as the surface low fills while crossing into the southern Bering.
A few showers will develop inland on Saturday along the weakening
boundary, with the highest chances along the mountain ranges.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A front along the southern Bering remains nearly stationary
through tonight with a re-enforcing surface low keeping gale
force winds along the boundary through much of Friday before
tapering down. A prolonged period of northerly gales can be
expected on the backside of this low pressure system as ridging
approaches the western Aleutians on Saturday, forcing a tighter
gradient along the central Aleutians and Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Next week will be characterized by high pressure that will build
in over the Bering and try to stretch into mainland Alaska. This
ridging will help to push off the low that will be in the Gulf of
Alaska but it will not be quite strong enough to inhibit afternoon
convection for much of the southern mainland. Mid week another low
will move in over the Aleutians from the south while the ridging
moves more prominently over the mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 150 155 160 165 170-175 177-180 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DK