Gale Warning 264, NWS Anchorage, AK

193 
FZAK62 PAFC 271133
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
333 AM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280115-
333 AM AKDT THU APR 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1001 MB LOW AT 54N 170W DISSIPATES FRI MORNING. A 973 MB 
KAMCHATKA LOW NEAR 53N 159E THU AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT 
ELONGATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES NEAR 53N 176E AT 990 
MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-280115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
333 AM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 5 TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S UP TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
333 AM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
333 AM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

711 
FZAK62 PAFC 272324
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
324 PM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281300-
324 PM AKDT THU APR 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER DUTCH HARBOR THIS EVENING. A 969
MB LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO 52N 172E AT 985
MB SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
53N 178E SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY
SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-281300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
324 PM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-281300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
324 PM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-281300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
324 PM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-281300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
324 PM AKDT THU APR 27 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

624 
FZAK62 PAFC 281132
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 AM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290130-
332 AM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 968 MB NEAR 53N 161E MOVES TO 52N 173E AT 985 MB SAT MORNING
BEFORE MOVING OVER DUTCH HARBOR AT 993 MB SUN EVENING. THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAPES INTO THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THIS 
AFTERNOON BEFORE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN BERING AND
EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON. BY SUN 
AFTERNOON THIS FRONT MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION
AND EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

$$

PKZ411-290130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
332 AM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-290130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
332 AM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-290130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
332 AM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-290130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
332 AM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

995 
FZAK62 PAFC 282351
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 PM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291245-
351 PM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB NEAR 53N 163E MOVES TO 52N 168E AT 982 MB SAT MORNING 
BEFORE MOVING OVER DUTCH HARBOR AT 992 MB SUN EVENING. THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAPES INTO THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS FRI 
AFTERNOON BEFORE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN BERING AND
EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON. BY SUN 
AFTERNOON THIS FRONT MOVES INLAND.

$$

PKZ411-291245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
351 PM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT EXCEPT E 20 TO 30 KT N OF 57N. SEAS 9 
TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-291245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
351 PM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-291245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
351 PM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT EXCEPT W 10 TO 20 KT W OF 178W. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-291245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
351 PM AKDT FRI APR 28 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE TO SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND 
SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 AM AKDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

It's about as close as it gets to a copy paste setup in the
weather this morning as compared to yesterday morning. The
vertically stacked low over the central Aleutians has only drifted
a short distance north, and it continues to be driving the
steering flow. The primary differences from yesterday revolve
around small scale features moving in the flow. For the whole of
southern mainland Alaska, the steering flow is approximately
southeasterly. This means moisture is being advected from off the
Gulf into much of the southern half of the state.

With the stacked low over the Aleutians weakening with time, the
steering flow has weakened considerably from yesterday. The result
of this weakening is the end of downsloping across Southcentral.
Not surprisingly, the latest Anchorage sounding supports that,
being nearly saturated from ground to tropopause. So why aren't
all areas being soaked? It's all about the forcing, which in this
instance is weak. So as weak waves of energy move through the
flow, the shower activity is locally enhanced for a few hours,
then for the most part returns back to occasional sprinkles.

Over Southwest Alaska, a similar story holds true, with more
organized shower activity exiting the Kuskokwim Delta out towards
the Bering. Otherwise, much of the area is seeing cloudy skies
with showers off-and-on from time to time. For the Bering, the
counterclockwise flow around the low is resulting in the shower
activity moving up from the southwest over the eastern Aleutians,
and from the north over the western Aleutians, but regardless of
the origins of the shower activity, the pattern is the same.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Like yesterday, the models remain in excellent agreement through
the short-term as the low over the Bering continues to weaken for
the next couple days. The models also largely agree on the advance
of the next front into the western Aleutians Thursday. As with
yesterday, the challenges remain timing any shower activity in any
one location in Southern Alaska, though wind concerns have reduced
considerably due to weak broad-scale flow. The NAM was the model
of choice, but any of the models could've been used as they all
are in agreement. Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with occasional sprinkles and light winds
will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Mostly cloudy conditions will persist Wednesday and Thursday with
the possibility for rain showers along the mountains. The
stagnant upper level flow pattern continues with very little in
terms of dynamic forcing for the next couple of days. Light
southeasterly flow aloft will keep a steady stream of moisture and
clouds from the Gulf of Alaska. With little to focus this
moisture, the only precipitation chances will come from diurnal
instability. The combination of spring temperatures in the low
levels and still seasonably cold upper levels will give rise to
isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon/evening hours,
mainly along and over higher terrain. High temperatures will be
near 50 degrees with low temperatures in the mid-upper 30's. Winds
will remain generally light through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low pressure system over the southern Bering will send a series
of weak waves across the Southwest Mainland and Alaska Peninsula
through Friday. This persistent pattern will continue to produce
widespread showery conditions and southerly flow over much of the
area through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low pressure system over the southern Bering weakens into an
open wave on Thursday, and then drifts slowly into the eastern
Bering before dissipating on Friday. This system will continue to
produce showery conditions over much of the Bering, along with
some gusty northerly winds mainly over the western Aleutians
through Thursday.

The next frontal system stems off of a Low over Southern
Kamchatka, and begins to track over the Western Aleutians by
Thursday Evening. This system will bring rain and gusty Gale
force winds along the front, which will then slowly track into
the Central Aleutians/Bering by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long-term forecast (this weekend and early next week) looks
like a continuation of the rather cloudy pattern that has spread
across much of mainland Alaska. The current stationary low in the
central Bering will weaken and move to the southeast over the next
few days, but by the weekend it will be replaced by a renewed low
pressure system moving through the Bering and parking near the
AKPEN or Kodiak Island. The models have been struggling with where
this 2nd low will set up shop...and the final position will be
the difference between continued cloudy with occasional showers at
inland locations, or thick clouds with steady rain for many
areas. For now, the more showery solution is preferred, as it
shows a bit more run-to-run consistency and also is supported
heavily by climatology. This should mean near or slightly above
normal temperatures continuing over southcentral Alaska, and
above-normal over Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...AD