Gale Warning 26, NWS Anchorage, AK

626 
FZAK62 PAFC 010006
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011415-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT...THEN
REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THU.
THE ASSOCIATED 961 MB LOW NEAR 49N 166E MOVES INLAND OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-011415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 29 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 TO 28 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT S 10 KT W OF 177W. SEAS
15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
306 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

374 
FZAK62 PAFC 011242
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020215-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A STRONG FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU AND BEGINS
MERGING WITH THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-020215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 TO 30 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 TO 27 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 TO 22 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-020215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 28 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-020215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-020215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
342 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

324 
FZAK62 PAFC 020029
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021430-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A STRONG FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.
A SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU AND BEGINS
MERGING WITH THE FIRST FRONT THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ411-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
329 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING
FOG.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

392 
FZAK62 PAFC 021301
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030215-
401 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH SAT MORNING. A FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-030215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
401 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-030215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
401 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-030215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
401 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-030215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
401 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FREEZING
FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

886 
FZAK62 PAFC 030032
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031415-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH SAT EVENING. A FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-031415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
332 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Mon Jan 30 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a large upper level trough over the Bering Sea and
Aleutians moving eastward. An associated front is pushing through
southwest Alaska and into Southcentral, bringing winds and
precipitation with it. There is an upper level ridge over eastern
Alaska with the axis near the Canadian border. This ridge is
slowly moving east. An upper level low south of the Kamchatka
Peninsula is moving toward the northeast. This is beginning to
develop a ridge ahead of it (to the east), and behind the
Bering/Aleutian low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement through the
short term portion of the forecast (Wednesday afternoon). There
are some important differences in how they handle the
precipitation for inland areas, mainly in how strong downslope
drying may be, and how long it will last.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty southerly to southeasterly winds are expected through
most of tonight, before diminishing Tuesday morning. VFR
conditions are likely to persist through tonight. Conditions could
lower to MVFR at times on Tuesday from late morning through the
afternoon in snow, but confidence is not real high and thus the
TAF was left at VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
South to east winds will continue to increase across much of the
region tonight as a strong frontal system pushes into the Gulf
region from the west. With the parent low tracking northward into
the northern Bering, the front has started to elongate and stall
over the western Gulf. The front will remain stalled over the
western Gulf through Tuesday, but continue to weaken. With a
shallow layer of cold air in place and unstable conditions right
above this, expect stronger winds to mix down to the surface in
many places, from the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Mat
Valley. East to southeast gap winds will also be in full force,
with the Turnagain Arm wind expected to bend into south to west
Anchorage later this afternoon through tonight.

With such strong low level southeast flow, the lee of the Kenai
and Chugach mountains will initially experience downslope drying.
However, as the surface front weakens tonight through Tuesday,
downsloping winds will weaken and snow will likely move into the
population centers. Despite the deep southerly flow out ahead of
the front, the air mass will remain cold enough for snow in most
locations, with the exceptions being Kodiak Island and the
immediate Gulf coast.

Forecast confidence has increased in a frontal wave developing
into a closed low over the western Gulf on Tuesday, with lower
confidence in the exact track of this feature. This is critical
for determining where the deformation band will setup, and how
long it will persist over a specific area. With the models in
slightly better agreement with the placement of this feature, we
are expecting the deformation band to set up over the Cook inlet
region and extend Northward into the Western Susitna Valley. Areas
that have the potential to see significant snowfall along a
deformation band include the western Kenai Peninsula North of Clam
Gulch, the Western Susitna Valley west of the Parks Highway, and
areas surrounding western Prince William Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front exits today, taking the precipitation and wind with it,
followed by clear and colder air as high pressure sets up over
the mainland. The front will move out of the area tonight with the
steady snow (Kuskokwim Delta/Valley), and rain (Greater Bristol
Bay) ending from west to east through the evening. A short-lived
showery regime (snow) will affect the Delta this evening. High
pressure builds in behind the front/trough Tuesday which will lead
to light winds, clearing sky and areas of fog into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Several weak disturbances bring snow showers from
Unalaska/Pribilofs and east while a new front enters the Western
Aleutians. The front will be max gale/min storm force, and mostly
be rain, but could begin as snow late tonight. It slowly
progresses eastward, stalling out near the central Bering on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There is very good agreement that a omega block setting up over
the Mainland late this week will bring a period of benign weather
to much of the area into the upcoming weekend. This omega block
will be much warmer than is typical for this time of year as it
forms in deep southerly flow over the Bering. As a result, much of
the Mainland should see near to above normal temperatures
(especially over the Southwest Mainland), sunny skies, with no
precipitation expected. In this pattern the primary concern will
be for the development of fog/stratus under the ridge, however
with broad offshore flow this likely will not be too widespread.

Over the Aleutians and Bering to the west of the Pribilofs
Islands, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will setup on the
western edge of the omega block. This will bring persistent gale
force winds and rain to much of the Central-Western Aleutians from
the middle of this week into the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 145 Winter Weather Advisory 121 161.
MARINE...Storm 175 176 177 178 Gale 130 131 132 136 139 150 173
174 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1042 PM AKST Mon Jan 30 2017

AKZ185-311045-
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of...Unalaska...Nikolski
1042 PM AKST Mon Jan 30 2017

...Trace of ash possible at Unalaska tonight...

Satellite has detected an eruption at Bogoslof volcano this
evening. Winds are favorable to bring trace amounts of ash from
the volcano to Unalaska Island. Trace amounts of ash are possible
over Unalaska Island including Dutch Harbor for the next few
hours. The best chance for ashfall will be south and west of Dutch
Harbor.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
142 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2017

AKZ185-311415-
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of...Unalaska...Nikolski
142 AM AKST Tue Jan 31 2017

...Trace of ash possible at Unalaska through the morning...

Satellite has detected a long-duration eruption at Bogoslof
volcano starting Monday evening. Winds remain favorable to bring
trace amounts of ash from the volcano to Unalaska Island. Trace
amounts of ash are possible over Unalaska Island including Dutch
Harbor for the next several hours. The best chance for ashfall
will be south and west of Dutch Harbor.