Gale Warning 238, NWS Anchorage, AK

128 
FZAK52 PAFC 241123
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250045-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 
FRONT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE 
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE 
CHAIN ON SAT.

$$

PKZ150-250045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-250045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-250045-
BRISTOL BAY-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ165-250045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-250045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-250045-
UNALASKA BAY-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-250045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-250045-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-250045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-250045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-250045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-250045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-250045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-250045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-250045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ181-250045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-250045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
323 AM AKDT FRI MAR 24 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Ridging remains over the Bering with upper level low pressure to
the east over Southcentral Alaska. This setup has continued to
bring outflow winds to the southern mainland while also keeping
the majority of precip out over the Gulf or over coastal mountain
ranges. Additionally, areas around Cook Inlet and areas of
southwest Alaska have seen clear skies. West of the ridge,
remnants of an old front continue to push north through the
western Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement over the next couple days and
forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low pressure trough continues over the northern Gulf of ALaska
with higher pressure inland. Weak to moderate outflow winds are
expected to continue over the North Gulf Coast and the eastern
Kenai Peninsula through Friday. Isolated to scattered snow showers
with the proximity of the upper trough overhead will linger along
the Gulf Coast and portions of the Copper River Basin into
Friday night. The March sun and relatively cloud free nights
inland will continue to produce large temperature swings in those
areas with little wind over the next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level ridge over the eastern Bering will persist through
the weekend with a cold upper level trough stretching from
northern Alaska into Southcentral Alaska. This flow pattern will
put Southwest Alaska under northwesterly flow aloft with the
surface winds out of the north to northeast bringing continued
cool, dry and generally sunny weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A gale force frontal system approaching from the south will reach
the western and central Aleutians early Friday morning. The front
will lift into the southern Bering Friday and Friday night.
Several additional frontal waves spinning around the parent low
south of the Aleutians will rotate north across the Aleutians
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Northwest upper level flow and ridging over the Bering will remain
dominant as the extended period forecast begins Friday evening.
At the same time a sprawling low over the North Pacific extending
into the southwest Bering Sea will be slowly moving east. This
means the sensible weather pattern of mostly dry and offshore flow
over Southern Alaska will still be dominant before larger changes
begin to develop Sunday and into next week. After weeks of
dominant ridging over the Bering Sea, this feature will begin to
weaken and retrograde northwest, allowing for a pattern change as
the arctic trough over Southern Alaska merges with a series of
weak North Pacific lows. Right now, there is uncertainty of
exactly where the arctic trough stalls, but it is most likely that
the trough stalls near the Alaska Range with most of the
precipitation (rain and snow along the coast) remaining east of
the Alaska Range. By midweek and beyond, uncertainty grows with
the details, but it seems quite likely, based on the shifting
blocking high, that storminess will be on the increase as the NPAC
jet strengthens and amplifies.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...172 173 174 175 176 177 178.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray...121 126 127 129.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...JA