Gale Warning 234, NWS Anchorage, AK

131 
FZAK52 PAFC 181143
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190100-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 972
MB LOW EXTENDS A STRONG FRONT OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE 
WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A 1004 MB LOW FORMS 
240 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE 
NORTH PACIFIC BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-190100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-190100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-190100-
BRISTOL BAY-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ165-190100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-190100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-190100-
UNALASKA BAY-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-190100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-190100-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-190100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-190100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-190100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-190100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-190100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-190100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-190100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ181-190100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-190100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
343 AM AKDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Little has appreciably changed in the last 24 hours, and the
overall weather pattern continues to feature a highly amplified
ridge of high pressure in the Bering Sea and a deep trough over
the Gulf of Alaska. This sets the southern mainland up under cold
and gusty northerly flow, though these gusty winds have subsided a
bit in the last 12 hours. This downturn has been in response to a
decrease in the active movement of more cold arctic air into the
area, as well as the fact that the series of surface lows moving
near the north gulf coast have moved off to the southeast which
has allowed pressure gradients to relax a bit. Of note, a gale-
force front and rain has moved into the western half of the
Aleutian Chain, and will be parked nearly stationary in that area
for the next few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in pretty good shape overall. While all models show
the front in the Bering stalling over the next day or so, the NAM
stalls this feature further south and west than virtually all the
other models. Thus the other global models (Canadian and ECMWF)
were the preferred tonight on the west domain. No significant
preference was noted on the eastern domain, and higher resolution
models were used when available to best capture wind patterns
through the highly complex terrain gaps.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Clear skies and generally light northerly winds should
persist throughout the period. There is an outside chance the
north winds could get gusty again for a few hours around the
middle of the day, but at this point the most likely scenario is
that a steady 10 mph or so north wind prevails throughout the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Dry and unseasonably cold conditions will persist as a reinforcing
shot of cold air is moving into the area underneath a cold upper
level low. This will keep mostly clear skies over the inland areas
through at least Saturday night.

The gusty (but diminished compared to previous days) outflow
winds along the north Gulf Coast will persist into tomorrow and
the cold air in conjunction with the upper level low will develop
a surface low in the Gulf Saturday. The snow showers with this low
will mainly stay over the Gulf though a few may make it onshore
Saturday night into Sunday depending how this low actually
develops and tracks. It looks unlikely that any snow showers will
make it farther inland than the Gulf Coast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
At long last the persistent northerly winds are on the decline.
While the reduction in wind will be the continued story for the
Greater Bristol Bay area, a weak front and disturbance will impact
the Kuskokwim Delta. Light snow will continue from this system
through the day today, mainly along the coast. Snow will both move
south and taper off through the overnight hours with minor
accumulations. Otherwise expect well below average temperature,
light northerly winds, and cloud free skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The main feature over the area is a stalling warm/occluded front
over the western/central Aleutians. The gale-force front will
quickly lose its punch as is moves slowly over the chain today.
Light rain will continue until the front passes overnight tonight.
High pressure will control the eastern Bering Sea, but gusty gap
winds will continue near the Alaska Peninsula with heavy freezing
spray for the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast will remain fairly unchanged and seemingly
no different than the present weather happening now. Persistent
low pressure across the Eastern Gulf, high pressure across the
interior and low pressure across the Western Bering will be the
key weather players through next week.

Midweek and later, the low pressure across the Gulf will allow
weak showers along the coast while the rest of the region will
remain dry with passing clouds. Far West, and just off the
Kamchatka coast, is a stacked low that will meander within the
Russian vicinity for some time. The main jet focus is far south
and will allow a few weak wiggles in the flow to work around the
stacked system following the weekend and in to the mid week. This
will reinforce a nearly stationary front and allow the occasional
weak maritime gale south of the Aleutian chain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 175 176 177 178
         Heavy Freezing Spray 130 138 139 150

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AMD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...SS