Gale Warning 231, NWS Anchorage, AK

846 
FZAK51 PAFC 162318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171215-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC EARLY FRI MORNING. A 1004 MB LOW DEVELOPS 100 NM NORTHEAST
OF KODIAK CITY FRI NIGHT AND DRIFTS 100 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 
1000 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-171215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER 
DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER 
DELTA. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171215-
PORT VALDEZ-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171215-
VALDEZ ARM-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT....EXCEPT N 20 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. S OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 15 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171215-
CHINIAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171215-
MARMOT BAY-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-171215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT THU MAR 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows the dominant upper level ridge
centered over the Central Aleutians this afternoon. To the east
of this feature, a closed low is spinning over the Gulf of Alaska
with light snow developing across the central and northern waters
as the surface low edges closer to the Kenai Peninsula. Strong
northerly flow increased this morning across much of the southern
mainland and surrounding waters as the pressure gradient is
squeezed between low pressure in the gulf and ridging to its north
and west.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Hi-Res models were used to update winds for offshore flow that
persists through Thursday with only minor changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and gusty northerly winds persists through
Thursday morning, then the winds will diminish Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Widespread gusty winds driven by arctic air over Southcentral and
tight pressure gradients along the gulf coast will persist
through tonight and into Thursday morning. Winds will peak during
the late afternoon and early evening hours today across southern
Cook Inlet, the western Gulf, and Kodiak Island, as a strong upper
level wave continues to drive arctic air southward through the
western Gulf and into the North Pacific. Winds will finally begin
to diminish across the region Thursday through Thursday night as
the low complex over the Gulf sinks south and eastward. With less
and less wind each night and a very cold air mass in place, expect
a downward trend in temperatures.

Meanwhile, a surface low over the Gulf will continue to spread
snow showers westward over Prince William Sound and Seward, and
northward over parts of the Copper River Basin tonight. However,
with the strong offshore flow maintaining a dry boundary layer in
most areas expect little or no accumulation. Additional lows will
rotate around the Gulf, but it looks like they will take a further
south track.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Clear skies and gusty northerly flow will the main weather story
once again through Thursday as low pressure continues to spin over
the Western Gulf. These winds will begin to diminish beginning on
Thursday afternoon as high pressure from the Bering begins
approaches, allowing for improving conditions with notably weaker
winds and sunny skies. This period of quieter weather will then
persist into the weekend with continued high pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The Bering Sea region will begin to see some sort of pattern
change beginning late tonight as the persistent high pressure
weakens and slides east in advance an approaching gale force front
over the Western Aleutians. Before this, to the south of the AK
pen storm force winds with hurricane force gusts will continue
into Thursday morning. This will occur as a very tight pressure
gradient occurs between the Bering high pressure and Gulf low,
which will begin to slowly diminish over the course of the
afternoon-evening hours. The focus will then shift to the western
half of the Bering into this weekend as the incoming front spreads
gale force winds and rain to most areas west of the Pribilof
Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Persistent high pressure over the Bering and a low over the Gulf
will keep northerly winds across mainland AK portions of our
forecast area on Sat. A small craft and gale force front will be
over the southern Bering with rain and snow. An impulse moving
around the Gulf low will bring snow to the north Gulf coast, that
begins to move inland Sat night.

From Sun through the middle of next week...low pressure
consolidates and becomes stationary along the north Gulf coast.
The associated light snow over the coast will move inland where
it will persist for several days. High pressure over the northern
mainland will keep cold and dry conditions over southwest AK,
while the Bering front dissipates. Cold northeast flow across the
Bering will produce some snow showers, mainly along the Aleutian
chain through midweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 150.
         Gale Warning 130>132 136>139 155 160 165 175>178.
         Heavy Frz Spray 121 126>128 130 136>139 141 150 165.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...DS