Gale Warning 221, NWS Anchorage, AK

723 
FZAK51 PAFC 122311
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131145-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 983 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND 40 NM WEST OF SITKA 
AT 987 MB MON MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH 
GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A 993 MB
LOW CENTER 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-131145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA.  SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER 
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-131145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 
FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-131145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-131145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-131145-
PORT VALDEZ-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-131145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-131145-
VALDEZ ARM-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-131145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-131145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT...STRONGEST EAST OF AUGUSTINE
ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT...STRONGEST EAST OF AUGUSTINE ISLAND. SEAS 8 
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-131145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-131145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-131145-
CHINIAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-131145-
MARMOT BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-131145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-131145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-131145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-131145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAR 12 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 PM AKST Sat Mar 11 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge remains entrenched over the Bering Sea
today with ridging extending over the interior of the state. This
is keeping good subsidence over southwest mainland Alaska with
Southcentral Alaska in northeast flow aloft. The mid level clouds
over Southcentral Alaska this morning that were from the
shortwave moving in from the northeast have mainly moved out of
the area which is opening the door for continued mostly clear
skies. A second shortwave moving southward will move over
southwest Alaska tonight which may bring in some clouds to that
region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement with very little differences to
discuss into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A slow shift in the upper weather pattern begins tonight as low
pressure over the Southeast moves westward into the Gulf. Not
much change at the surface is anticipated until Sunday night when
a trough develops at the surface in the northeast Gulf. With
ridging situated across the interior, wind flow increases for
channeled terrain along the coast. Additionally, winds increase
for Seward, Whittier and the Cook inlet as the pressure gradient
tightens along an inverted trough axis extending from the
developing Gulf low. Low pressure over the gulf organizes into
Tuesday with a center closing off over the central Gulf. For the
beginning of the week this system moderates toward cooler
temperatures and increasing clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Sunny skies, near normal temperatures and northerly winds will
continue through the weekend as broad high pressure remains over
the Bering. These winds will increase and become gusty overnight
tonight into Sunday as a shortwave moves overhead, then persist
into Monday as a wave develops in the Gulf. By late Monday,
another upper level low descending through the Mainland may bring
a brief round of light snow showers to the Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A persistent Rex Block over the Northern-Western Bering will
continue to bring quiet weather throughout the region into early
next week. The main concern will be with extensive stratus that
has developed to the west of the Pribilof Islands, but with a very
dry low level airmass coming off the sea ice no fog development is
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Tue through Sat)...
Models continue to advertise a slow and steady pattern change. The
ridge over the western Bering will go from being more of a
negative tilt (oriented northwest to southeast) to a more neutral
orientation (north to south) as we go through the week. This will
allow cold air to move from the Interior into the southern half of
AK helping to carve out a trough in the Gulf of AK. Then by next
weekend, the Bering ridge is almost completely eroded as a broad,
warm low approaches the western Aleutians.

The net effect from this will be calm conditions over much of the
Bering, while cold returns to southern AK with some snow threats.
Seas will remain relatively low and winds light really until a
warm front moves towards the central Bering by Fri. A few
shortwaves driving over the ridge and into Southwest AK will usher
in much colder air starting Tue. This cold air could also bring
the chance for some very light snow, but not impressed with any
feature at this time as the column will be very dry. It will also
lead to some gusty winds mixing down to the surface. For South
Central, models remain in good agreement that low pressure will
make its way into the Northern Gulf of AK. However, there are
subtle differences in exactly how far north and west the moisture
makes it. For now, still looks like best snow chances stay along
the Gulf Coast. But we will monitor closely for any trends if the
low were to track further west towards the colder air. The GFS did
come in with a much stronger low near Southeast AK on Wed, but
since it was a big outlier, we did not incorporate this solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MO