Gale Warning 213, NWS Anchorage, AK

813 
FZAK52 PAFC 070110
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-071415-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 986
MB LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK EXTENDS A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF ANADYR WED 
AFTERNOON. A 983 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW PUSHES A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUE AFTERNOON AND TO NORTHERN KAMCHATKA BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-071415-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-071415-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-071415-
BRISTOL BAY-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ165-071415-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-071415-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-071415-
UNALASKA BAY-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-071415-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-071415-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-071415-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-071415-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-071415-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-071415-
ADAK TO KISKA-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-071415-
KISKA TO ATTU-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-071415-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-071415-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ181-071415-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-071415-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
410 PM AKST MON MAR 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND, SE WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND, SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKST Sun Mar 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude blocking pattern continues with ridge centered
over the eastern Bering and troughs on either side. The tail end
of a short-wave trough extending from a very cold low over the
Canadian Arctic is dropping southward across Southcentral Alaska
today. This is bringing another round of cold air advection and
favorable conditions for deep vertical mixing of winds, with
stronger winds from aloft mixing down to the surface. Thus, gusty
winds are developing across much of Southcentral and strengthening
through the day. Out west, a front is elongating and weakening
along the west side of the ridge with rain and winds focused
across the central Bering and Aleutians. An active merry-go-round
of lows continues over the northwest Pacific and far western
Bering Sea which just helps to reinforce the downstream ridge and
maintain a stable pattern.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in good agreement and forecast confidence is
generally high. The primary forecast challenge is determining how
much wind will mix down to the surface over Southcentral and
whether any areas will decouple from the boundary layer tonight
(which would lead to lighter winds and colder temperatures).

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Another surge of cold air advection will lead to strengthening
low level flow and some gusty winds at the surface. Although this
event will not be as strong as others from the past week, it does
look strong enough to keep the low levels well mixed and prevent
de-coupling of surface winds from boundary layer winds. Thus, expect
gusty winds to last all night long.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...Dry and cold offshore flow will continue to start the work
week. The pattern has changed little over the past few days and
will not change for several more days. We are still waiting for
the upper-level energy to push from north to south to help to mix
the stronger winds into Thompson Pass and then Valdez. A high wind
warning remains in effect for that area through Mon morning.
Across the rest of Southcentral, abundant sunshine remains the
rule. Winds have started to increase in the Susitna Valley and
across the Western Kenai Peninsula. These winds should eventually
make it into the Matanuska Valley and Anchorage this evening. Even
though the skies will be clear tonight (which generally would lead
to very cold temperatures), winds should keep many of the
population centers a bit warmer than the past couple of mornings.

Monday will bring more of the same weather. Winds should slowly
diminish across most areas, though they will remain gusty in
places like Valdez and Seward. The March sun will make the
afternoon feel quite warm again, even though high temperatures
will continue to hover about 10 degrees below normal within this
Arctic airmass. Then by Tue afternoon, we will once again see a
slight increase in the winds courtesy of some more upper-level
energy spilling over the Bering ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Sunny days and cold and clear nights can be expected through Wed
as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A pair of small craft and gale force fronts will affect the
western Aleutians through Wed. These will also bring rain and some
snow to the area during the period. The eastern Aleutians will
remain generally dry beneath building high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Tuesday night and Wednesday, the large scale upper level ridge
centered over the eastern Aleutians and Bering will tilt east
into coastal Southwest Alaska. With significant warm advection
aloft accompanying the ridge and strengthening night time
inversions, expecting to see fog and low stratus impacting coastal
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta Tuesday night, spreading to
include the Bristol Bay area Wednesday night and then pushing
further inland to impact most of the lowlands of Southwest Alaska
by Thursday night. To the west of the large ridge, southerly flow
and an active storm track will keep the western Aleutians in a
wet and windy pattern through the week.

For Southcentral Alaska, the offshore pressure gradient and
resulting gap winds will increase again Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning as the tilting upper level ridge pushes the deep
trough east and puts Southcentral Alaska underneath the stronger
northerly flow aloft in between the two features. The entire
pattern continues to shift east Thursday and Friday as an upper
trough out of Russia, rides up and over the ridge and flattening
it somewhat. This shift will bring a gradual moderation in the
offshore winds as well as ushering warmer air aloft into
Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131.
MARINE...Gale 127 128 178 185.
 		 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126-130 138 139 141 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...JR