Gale Warning 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

532 
FZAK51 PAFC 021847 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

UPDATED ZONE 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030730-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-030730-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-030730-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-030730-
RESURRECTION BAY-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-030730-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-030730-
PORT VALDEZ-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-030730-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-030730-
VALDEZ ARM-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-030730-
PASSAGE CANAL-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-030730-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-030730-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-030730-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 45 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 18 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-030730-
CHINIAK BAY-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-030730-
MARMOT BAY-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-030730-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-030730-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-030730-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ141-030730-
KACHEMAK BAY-
947 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKST Wed Mar 1 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a deep upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska. A compact
surface low is centered over the northwestern Gulf and moving
towards the south. An upper level high is over the central Bering
Sea. Strong northerly flow aloft is over the eastern Bering
through southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula to eastern
Aleutians. At the surface, offshore flow exists over most of
southern Alaska, strongest through south central Alaska gaps.
There is a low south of the western Aleutians that is moving
slowly towards the east northeast. A front associated with this
low stretches across the central and western Aleutians and
southwest Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through the short term
portion of the forecast. There are some differences in surface
lows over the Gulf of Alaska, but these are mainly just outside
of our forecast area. Forecast confidence is thus higher than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. North winds will continue,
with occasional fluctuations in strength.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The forecast looks pretty steady state for the next couple days
with continued cold and breezy conditions, except for the north
gulf coast where breezy can be replaced with downright windy (if
that even covers it). An upper level low continues to spin in the
Gulf of Alaska, which will keep the mainland in this cold,
outflow pattern. Temperatures and winds continue to be the most
difficult forecast elements as clouds and precipitation will be at
a minimum for the short term. Last night saw spotty decoupling of
the surface with some places, losing wind and having their
temperatures plummet, i.e. Glennallen or east Anchorage, while
others in the Matanuska Valley or around Cook Inlet, retained wind
and higher temperatures. Tonight's lows look much the same, there
should be enough wind and mixing around stopping temperatures
from dropping in most places while others will go calm and cold.

The more interesting weather feature is an uptick in outflow winds
as the mid-upper level flow becomes more favorable along the north
gulf coast. Combine the more favorable northerly flow with a cold
pool of air in the Copper River Basin, you have the recipe for a
High Wind Warning. Cold advection through the gaps and over the
mountains will keep winds elevated through Friday morning at
warning levels, but will still remain pretty gusty through late
Friday at least.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With high pressure dominating the Bering Sea, dry, cold, and
northerly flow will continue over southwest Alaska through Friday.
The exception to the dry conditions will be on Thursday when a
weak shortwave pushes through the area bringing light snow showers
to higher elevations. Winds look to stay gusty until Friday when
they start to taper off as the low over the Gulf weakens and moves
south which will weaken the gradient over southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure over the central Bering will keep northerly flow
over the eastern Bering and southerly flow over the western
Bering. This will also keep the storm track over the Western
Aleutians with the systems getting stalled by the high pressure.
These systems will bring up enough warm air to have a mix of rain
and snow for the Central and Western Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Colder and drier conditions are expected through the extended
forecast as the Bering Sea ridge blocks any organized storm
systems from the southern mainland. On Friday night the upper
ridge is forced a little further south back into the Pacific as
low pressure in the western Bering Sea, along with a second
system from the Arctic, send strong shortwaves toward the southern
mainland. A weak front which manages to undercut the ridge in the
western Bering Sea sends a front into the central and northern
Bering Sea, however it weakens rapidly as the upper wave shears
apart as it rides along the northern periphery of the ridge. The
ridge re-amplifies across the Bering Sea in the late weekend as
the energy from the shortwave flows downstream of the ridge. The
ECMWF maintained the best consistency through the middle of next
week and was the primary influence in making minimal grid updates
with this slowly evolving pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131.
MARINE...Storm 127 230 131 132 138.
Gale 119 121 126 127 128 136 137 352 150 155 160 165 175 176 177
178 180.
Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126 127 129 130 141 150 160 165 179 180
414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH