Gale Warning 176, NWS Anchorage, AK

795 
FZAK52 PAFC 251257
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260145-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 977
MB NORTH KAMCHATKA LOW WEAKENS TO 1016 MB AS IT MOVES TO 30 NM
EAST OF CAPE LISBURNE BY MON MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE BERING SEA INTO WESTERN ALASKA BY MON MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE BERING BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-260145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING W WIND 20
KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-260145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-260145-
BRISTOL BAY-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-260145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-260145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-260145-
UNALASKA BAY-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-260145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-260145-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-260145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-260145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-260145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-260145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BERING SIDE...W 30 KT PAC SIDE. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-260145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-260145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-260145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ181-260145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-260145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
357 AM AKST SAT FEB 25 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 50 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 29 FT.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 26 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKST Fri Feb 24 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The "waiting" phase is upon us. A modest shortwave is moving over
Southwest AK with an associated surface cold front pushing right
up against the Alaska Range. A 130kt jet is providing the upper-
level support to this system. There is a healthy amount of low
and mid- level moisture out ahead of it as is evidenced from
looking at the radar and widespread low stratus across Cook Inlet.
Now we are just "waiting" for these ingredients to work together
to start producing some snow across the area. It has been snowing
much of the morning near Iliamna and near Talkeetna. Satellite
does show better lift now starting to surge through the Barren
Islands area, so it should only be a matter of time. The other
interesting component this morning is the warm "nose" just off the
surface. 800 hPa temperatures were able to climb above freezing
yesterday and some of that warm air has hung on into the morning.
That said, it could allow a little bit of rain to mix in with the
snow at precipitation starts.

Out west, yet another strong Bering low is blasting through
Shemya. This is bringing another round of storm-force winds to the
Aleutians and Western Bering Sea. The system will peak in
intensity late this morning or early this afternoon with a central
pressure in the mid-upper 960mb range. Over Southwest AK, warm air
riding over the colder surfaces has led to widespread fog. This
should burn off later today as some colder, drier air moves in.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are handling the synoptic pattern quite well. The few areas
of uncertainty are regarding timing of the onset of precipitation across
much of South Central and what type it will be as it does start.
Thinking continues to be that it will start within a few hours and
should be mostly snow. The bigger question mark for the day
remains snow accumulation. Due to a slightly later onset and some
residual warm air, we have backed off snow amounts across
Anchorage a bit. There remains a chance that areas of the
Matanuska Valley could still see a bit more than forecasted,
especially near Hatcher Pass, if all the dynamics come together.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Low stratus will keep at least MVFR ceilings going through
the morning. There is some uncertainty on the start time of the
snow. But once it does start, we should see ceilings lower and
visibility drop to at least MVFR. If the snow intensity picks up,
visibility could easily drop to one half mile. The best chance for
those conditions would be through the late morning into early
afternoon. Drier, colder northwest flow will move in this evening
and should help to improve conditions to VFR. However, there is an
outside chance that some lower stratus could hang on through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The challenging part of the forecast is for the precipitation
around Cook Inlet and the Mat-Su valleys today. One uncertainty we
have been addressing the last few days has been precipitation type
and it looks like the system is beginning to tip its hand on
that. The 12Z balloon sounding out of Anchorage showed a small
above freezing layer from about 300 to 1300 ft. Models show
temperatures aloft slowly cooling through the day as well. This
indicates that the predominate precipitation type should be snow,
at least from Anchorage northward today.
The challenge in all this is that surface temperatures are still
likely to get above freezing later today in spite of the cooling
temperatures aloft. There is still a chance for some brief
freezing rain early this morning while the surface is below
freezing and there is the warm layer just above the surface. By
this afternoon when temperatures get above freezing it looks to be
cold enough aloft, and heavy enough precipitation rates to wet-
bulb out the air column and keep precipitation type snow from
Anchorage north. As one goes farther south in Cook Inlet, chances
of rain mixing in or changing to all rain increase to where it
will be likely all rain in the Homer area by late morning.

Yet another, very similar looking front is in store for the area
Sat night into Sun. Initially, this system looked to be drier as
it came across the AK Range. However, models have trended more
aggressive with it with more upper-level support. Thus, we have
increased the chances for snow, mainly north of Anchorage, during
this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Temperatures will rise above freezing across much of the area
today as the front drifts east. Although some freezing rain is
expected this morning from Dillingham to Iliamna, precipitation
will generally be a mix of rain and snow, with snow more likely
in the northwestern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta. Temperatures
will again fall below freezing tonight beneath a building ridge,
with lingering snow activity near the mountains and fog near the
coast. On Sat a front will send another stream of moisture into
the mainland with snow and rain, that becomes all light snow Sun
into Mon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A series of fronts will bring gale to storm force winds with snow
and rain to the Bering and western Aleutians into Sat. Building
high pressure will then spread cold air over the area as winds diminish
through Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long range forecast transitions late weekend, returning colder
conditions across the southern mainland and much of the Bering as
the upper level jet flattens as it sags southward on Sunday. A new
upper level wave pattern develops on Monday with ridge amplifying
along the west Bering. Cold air advection along the Bering spreads
east across the mainland and gulf through the middle of next
week. Models are in relatively good agreement that a closed low
forms along a deepening wave Monday into Tuesday. This pattern
sets up to bring multiple waves from the Arctic to the gulf
through much of the next week which brings continued chances for
snow for the mainland. To the west...ridging will bring a quieter
weather pattern over the western areas of the Bering dominated by
low clouds and period showers with generally small craft winds
along the western Aleutian Chain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 177 178 185.
         Gale Warning 120 131 170 173 175 176 179 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...KH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
105 PM AKST FRI FEB 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     SNOW             PALMER                  61.60N 149.11W
02/24/2017  E2.0 INCH                           AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0102 PM     SNOW             3 WNW GLEN ALPS         61.12N 149.77W
02/24/2017  M2.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

&&

RDUELL