Gale Warning 174, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Feb 23, 2017, 3:27 PM AKST (00:27 UTC)

Expired

Feb 24, 2017, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

229 
FZAK52 PAFC 240027
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241245-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. 
A 977 MB LOW 290 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR
AND WEAKENS TO 1006 MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 270 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 969 MB FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THEN TO 360 NM WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AT 982 MB
SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-241245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. FROM CHIRIKOF ISLAND W...SW WIND 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W OF THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E... S WIND 20 KT
BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241245-
BRISTOL BAY-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-241245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM COLD BAY W...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
COLD BAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241245-
UNALASKA BAY-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241245-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 21
FT BUILDING TO 27 KT BY LATE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 32 FT SUBSIDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ181-241245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-241245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
327 PM AKST THU FEB 23 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 35 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SAINT MATTHEW E...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 31 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 26 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 23, 5:04 AM AKST, 10 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKST Thu Feb 23 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern is divided into two parts this morning. Over the west,
a fairly deep trough with a closed upper level low resides over
the Bering. Meanwhile, in the east, a ridge of high pressure is
building over the central mainland. The most active weather is in
between these two systems as a 145 kt jet ferries potent warm air
northward. The first warm front has already made its way up to the
Seward Peninsula. The trailing quasi-cold front is blasting
through the Alaska Peninsula stretching up towards Nunivak Island.
Most of the precipitation associated with this feature has been
rain so far, but there is colder on the backside of it which could
allow things to change back to snow. Over the Western Bering, the
parent low is quickly filling as it slings some snow showers and
storm-force gusts through the Aleutian chain.

In the east, drier and warmer is the rule under the building
ridge. Winds are relatively calm at all locations. The biggest
forecast challenge will be abundant low stratus and perhaps some
patchy fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
All models remain in good synoptic agreement. This is lending to
moderate forecast confidence in the big picture items. The GFS was
preferred out west for continuity. The NAM was preferred in the
east for better resolution. The remaining areas of uncertainty are
the longevity of the low stratus around the Cook Inlet today and
then the precipitation type on Friday. Models seem to be trending
towards a slightly colder scenario for Friday's front. However,
Turnagain Arm winds and the depth of the warm air could lead to a
messy mix of precipitation. This portion of the forecast was left
mostly unchanged for this package.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions due to low stratus will persist at least
through the morning hours. With very little change to the pattern,
this stratus could last until after midnight Thu night. However,
thinking is still that as some drier air works in today, it should
be able to mix out some. The next round of precipitation will move
in late tonight bringing MVFR ceilings. Precipitation is likely
to start as a mix of rain and snow. If it is more snow than rain,
expect visibilities to drop as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Temperatures across Southcentral Alaska will be warming up a bit
today as the warm core ridge moves over the area. There are some
clouds riding over the ridge but there does not appear to be any
precipitation with any of these impulses. That will change
overnight into Friday as a front moves through the area from the
west.

Tomorrow poses a challenge as to the type of precipitation that
will occur in the Cook Inlet area. While temperatures will be warm
overnight, they main batch of precipitation will come as the
colder air moves in which could mean a mixed bag of precip types
throughout the day. There is a chance for some brief freezing rain
Friday morning near Anchorage southward to Kenai as the system
moves in, but this is looking less likely. What looks most likely
is for a rain snow mix in the late morning to mid afternoon and
then have all precipitation turn to snow by late afternoon.
However precipitation will probably not last for long after it
turns to all snow.

There is a chance that the vast majority of the precipitation
will be snow with just a little rain mixed in, but the south to
southeast winds before the precipitation arrives will probably be
enough to push temperatures high enough above freezing for some
rain. However it is interesting to note that both the GFS and NAM
MOS data show all snow for Anchorage, Kenai, and points northward
for the entire event in spite of temperatures around 40.
Regardless of what happens, it will likely make for some periods
of difficult travel conditions around the region. An SPS has been
issued to address this.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A system extending from near Hawaii will continue to spread warm
moist air across southwest AK today and tonight. Temperatures
will rise above freezing today except for portions of the lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Although some snow will persist this morning
near Hooper Bay, precipitation will change to rain along the coast
and well inland. As the front progresses inland tonight,
temperatures will drop to freezing or below and rain will change
to snow as the main band of precipitation moves east.

Partial clearing from the west Fri morning will allow some fog
formation, as snow reaches the Alaska and Aleutian ranges during
the afternoon and overnight. Beginning on Sat the next warm front
spreads a mix of snow and rain across the region through Sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The initial stream of tropical moisture will continue to spread
rain over the eastern Aleutians today before moving inland. Cooler
air over the western Aleutians with snow showers will spread east
tonight before moving away from land. The next gale and storm
force warm front will approach the western Aleutians tonight with
snow changing to rain. This rain will then proceed across the
chain through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The active weather pattern over the Bering Sea will begin to move
into the Mainland this weekend as high pressure slides southward
into the North Pacific. This will allow for a gale force front
over the Bering Sea to spread gusty winds and rain/snow into the
Southwest Mainland with deep onshore flow for much of the weekend.
Then by early next week the models continue to be in good
agreement that an arctic trough will deepen over the Mainland Mon-
Tue, ushering in colder air and gusty offshore flow to much of the
Gulf Coast. What is still unclear however is the exact track that
this trough will take through the Mainland, which is having a
significant impact in the possibility of snow to the South
Mainland into the middle of next week. The EC and GEM are more
aggressive in bringing Bering Sea moisture into the Mainland ahead
of the arctic trough, and a result are more aggressive in the
potential for a snow event Mon-Tue. The GFS on the other hand has
been very consistently more aggressive in bringing cold/dry
interior air, leaving most of the South Mainland dry into the
middle of next week. For now the forecast favors the drier GFS
solution as it has been much more consistent. Forecast confidence
is below average.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm warning 177 178.
		 Gale warning 155 165 170 172 173 175 176 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...DEK

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
109 PM AKST Thu Feb 23 2017

AKZ101-111-241430-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of...Anchorage...Eagle River...Indian...
Eklutna...Palmer...Wasilla...Sutton...Chickaloon
109 PM AKST Thu Feb 23 2017

...Difficult Driving Conditions possible Friday...

A weather front moving into upper Cook Inlet Friday will bring a
warmer airmass into the area on Friday. While snow is expected to
be the dominate precipitation type across the Anchorage Bowl and
Matanuska Valley, there is a chance that it could mix with rain
at times, especially during the morning hours. If any rain were to
fall on frozen surfaces, it could make for very slick conditions.
Conditions should improve by afternoon as temperatures rise to
above freezing. Snow is expected to to continue through the late
afternoon hours before diminishing in the evening. Only a couple
of inches of snow is expected across the Anchorage Bowl and
Matanuska Valley with higher amounts along the mountains.

Stay tuned for updates at weather.gov/anchorage.

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2017Every gale warning in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.