Gale Warning 169, NWS Anchorage, AK

825 
FZAK52 PAFC 221301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230215-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM
WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 948 MB LOW 175 NM WEST OF
ATTU MOVES TO 200 NM NORTH OF ATTU AT 963 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES TO 200 NM WEST OF GAMBELL AT 989 MB LATE THU NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES TO THE EASTERN
BERING TONIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO ALASKA. ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-230215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-230215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-230215-
BRISTOL BAY-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-230215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 9
FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-230215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-230215-
UNALASKA BAY-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-230215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-230215-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21
FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-230215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 29 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 29
FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-230215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-230215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-230215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT BERING SIDE...26 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-230215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-230215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-230215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ181-230215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-230215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
401 AM AKST WED FEB 22 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 50 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 35 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 25 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 28 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKST Tue Feb 21 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Satellite this morning clearly depicts that the stage is set for
a transition in our weather today. A weak surface low near the
Prince William Sound continues to wrap some snow showers into
coastal sites such as Cordova and Whittier. This low coupled with
some potent cold air advection is leading to gusty outflow winds
in the typical spots (Barren Islands, Seward, etc.) as well. But
the low is being ushered to the east courtesy of the 500mb trough
that cleared through the Cook Inlet earlier this morning. Clearing
skies across most inland areas have led to the coldest temperatures
in over a week. But warmer air and moderate to heavy precipitation
are on their way.

A front currently approaching Southwest AK will bring a change in
weather to southern AK. The front brought gusty winds and heavy
snow to the Alaska Peninsula up through the Pribilof Islands
already this morning. It is also ferrying enough warm air
northward to change the precipitation type to all rain at Dutch
Harbor. Winds are already starting to increase across the
southwest in response to the tightening pressure gradient with
colder air over the mainland. Snow is just starting to fall over
some of the Western Capes and will only continue to push inland
through the morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
There was one notable differences with the synoptic features in
the models this morning. The NAM was clearly slower in bringing
precipitation inland, especially over Cook Inlet tonight. For
this reason, it was discounted. The GFS was preferred. Otherwise,
the higher resolution models were relied upon to capture details
in precipitation type, strength of winds, and timing of
precipitation. Over the Gulf of AK, the stronger solutions were
used to capture some gale-force winds as a closed surface low
exits on Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level trough over Southcentral will exit to the east
today with a few lingering showers over Prince William Sound and
the Copper Basin. Expect abundant sunshine behind the trough with
temperatures struggling to make it out of the teens for most
inland locations.

A potent upper level short-wave and low level frontal boundary
will then rapidly cross Southcentral tonight through Wednesday
bringing a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow to most locations.
With deep and strong southwest flow and the track of the strongest
part of the short-wave across the Cook Inlet-Susitna Valley
corridor, expect the heaviest snowfall from the Western Kenai to
Anchorage and the Mat-Su. One complicating factor will be a period
of strong but shallow southeast winds across the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains tonight through early Wednesday. This will initially
limit snowfall intensity across portions of Anchorage and the Mat
Valley. However, as a surface low tracks south of the Kenai
Peninsula early Wednesday, these winds will rapidly diminish and
shift to the southwest, favorable for upslope enhancement of snow
along the mountains. Prior to the shift there will likely be a
convergence zone away from the mountains which could produce
heavier snow from west Anchorage to the western Mat Valley. Also
of note, the track of the surface low will lead to just south of
the Kenai Peninsula will lead to some of the heaviest snow over
the southwest areas from Homer northward to Ninilchik.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued from the Western Kenai
to Anchorage and the Mat Valley along with the Susitna Valley from
Talkeetna southward. Although not all areas will see advisory
accumulation (6 inches), the fact that some of the heaviest snow
will fall during the morning commute warrants issuance of the
advisories.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A rapidly changing forecast today as the well-below negative
temperatures will warm as a front brings moderate snowfall to most
areas. The front itself is pretty moist with dew points in the
30s behind it along the Aleutians. The strength of the front
itself will be aided by replenishing of the arctic air from the
north as warm air advects over top. That profile will bring the
highest snow amounts from Dillingham westward through roughly
Kipnuk with advisory-level snow extending inland as well. Sub-
advisory level snow is expected around the Bethel area, including
Aniak, and eastern portions of Bristol Bay.

Falling and blowing snow will reduce visibility as low as one-
half mile, mainly along the coast. The front will continue inland
overnight tonight, bringing the same intensity snow to the
Kuskokwim Valley. The cold antecedent conditions will lead to
light and fluffy snow that will build up quickly. The front exits
the southwest late tonight, while another weak front brings
another shot of very light snow to the area on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
One front exits, another enters. It's the circle of life. Blizzard
conditions will wind down early this morning for the Pribilofs as
the front moves northeast across the Bering. The next storm-force
front moves into the western/central Bering this afternoon,
bringing another slug of warm air. The warm front will change snow
to rain from south to north, followed by an west-east moving cold
front on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A very amplified ridge setting up over much of Mainland Alaska on
Thursday will surge above normal temperatures and moisture to the
Gulf and the South Mainland through late this week. This will
initially bring above normal temperatures but otherwise quiet
weather to most areas for Thursday, but this will begin to become
more active as the remnants of a frontal band becomes
reinvigorated by a shortwave traversing the Bering Sea. This will
bring precipitation mostly in the form of rain the Southwest
Mainland on Friday, which will then spread into Southcentral late
Friday-Saturday. What is less certain this far out in the forecast
is determining whether surface temperatures will rise above
freezing, so the possibility of freezing rain will need to be
monitored in the coming days.

By Sunday, there is good agreement that this warm-up will once
again be short lived as the amplified ridge flattens out as it
shifts to the south. This will allow for a series of arctic
troughs to track back into the Mainland, forcing temperatures back
below freezing and chances of precipitation to snow in most areas.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 121 145 152 155 161.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 129 130 131 139 185.
         Storm Warning 178.
 		 Gale Warning 119 120 131 132 155 165 170 172 173 174
                      175 176 177 179 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...DEK