Gale Warning 143, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Feb 9, 2017, 4:03 PM AKST (01:03 UTC)

Expired

Feb 10, 2017, 5:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

442 
FZAK51 PAFC 100103
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101400-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO 50 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WHITTIER BY FRI AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS INTO A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-101400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101400-
PORT VALDEZ-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101400-
VALDEZ ARM-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 20 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101400-
CHINIAK BAY-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101400-
MARMOT BAY-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT.  GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ141-101400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
403 PM AKST THU FEB 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 9, 4:57 AM AKST, 11 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKST Thu Feb 9 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A closed upper low is slowly moving southeast over Bristol Bay
bringing light snow to the southwest and localized areas of
Southcentral. A second low near Shemya moved a warm front into the
southwest Bering and central Aleutians with gale force southeasterly
winds and rain across the western Chain. The next significant low
pressure system originates from the arctic and is currently
diving south across the North Slope.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement with the synoptic pattern
through Saturday morning, then diverge greatly in their solutions
late Saturday into early next week. The NAM and GFS were used to
make minor edits through Sunday morning. The general pattern into
the weekend is influenced by both polar and subtropical lows which
actively send multiple disturbances toward the southern area of
the state. This set up will bring ongoing precipitation into early
next week. A cold polar air mass moves over the eastern Bering and
across the southern mainland and Gulf keeping precipitation type
all snow with rain and snow along the western Aleutians changing
to snow by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...
Low pressure crossing into the Gulf from Bristol Bay will bring
light snow this morning with dry conditions behind this system
during the afternoon. Snow development is expected again late
tonight as another polar low digs southeast toward the Kenai.
Visibilities and ceilings with the second system will need to be
monitored as there is still uncertainty with it's track and
timing through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and Thu)...

A couple of upper troughs dropping south across the northern Gulf
combined with strong low over the Gulf will continue elevated
chances of snow across Southcentral through Friday night. Snow
amounts are expected to be generally light across much of
Southcentral through Friday night. However, with model solutions
differing on the mesoscale features and resultant areal coverage
of QPF, there could be a some areas which see locally heavier snow
amounts. One of the keys for snow amounts across the Anchorage
Bowl/MAT Valley will be how much moisture pushes west across the
Chugach as the next upper low drops south across the northern Gulf
on Friday. These upper troughs will bring cooler air across the
region, intensifying surface pressure gradients and bringing
westerly gales to local storms across the western Gulf and brisk
outflow winds conditions over the eastern Kenai Peninsula this
afternoon in into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The southwest mainland will begin a transition to a much colder
and predominantly dry pattern today as one trough departs into the
Gulf of Alaska and another quickly drops out of the arctic. The
arrival of this secondary trough will be accompanied by strong
cold air advection as 850 mb temperatures plummet by 10-15 degrees
C by early Friday morning. This will push temperatures well below
zero area-wide through Saturday, with the coldest temperatures
across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and the Kuskokwim Delta.
Bitterly cold wind chill values will also become a concern across
these areas, however there is still uncertainty as to whether
winds will be strong enough for wind chills to reach advisory
criteria. Although the passage of the trough will be mostly dry,
some flurries may persist over interior southwest Alaska into
Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front draped over the southwest Bering will continue to bring
periods of rain to the West/Central Aleutians as it gradually
weakens in place through Friday morning. Gale force winds will
generally diminish through today but will then be re-enforced
over the Central and Eastern Aleutians by Friday as a deepening
low brushes the Pacific side of the chain. Otherwise, increasing
northerly flow and cold advection associated with the digging
mainland trough will be the primary story across the remainder of
the Bering through Saturday. This will yield widespread Small
Craft Advisory level winds and freezing spray, along with
gradually increasing convective shower activity over much of the
region by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A cold longwave trough over interior Alaska will begin to drop
down over Southern Alaska Friday, bringing colder temperatures to
much of the region through Sunday. As this colder airmass settles
in over the area Friday, a surface low over the Gulf of Alaska
begins to strengthen and move over Prince William Sound. There is
good agreement in the models and higher confidence in precip
developing along the Northern Gulf coast areas and over parts of
the Copper River Basin Friday and into Saturday. However, models
are still struggling with the positioning of the surface low,
which has lead to lower confidence in snow potential/amounts over
the Anchorage, Mat-Su Valleys, and Western Kenai areas. One can
say with higher confidence that several areas of low pressure
will move into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend through the middle
of next week. Southerly flow associated with each of these
systems will help transport warm moist air from the Pacific
northward over the Southern Mainland. Even though confidence
remains low on the exact track of these systems, confidence is now
higher in warming temperatures and an overall wetter pattern for
the Southern Mainland next week.

Out west, a pattern change will also be underway over the Bering
Sea and northern Pacific, as the receding high pressure over the
areas gets pushes westward by the above mentioned cold longwave
trough tracking through the mainland. This will make way for the
upper level trough to set up over the Bering Sea and Northern
Pacific by early next week, with multiple systems at the surface
mainly staying along or south of the Aleutian chain through the
middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 130.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 121 127 129 130 136 137 138 150 160
         165 179 180 185.
         Gales 129 131 132 150 170 172 173 174 175 176 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...TP

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1211 PM AKST THU FEB 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     SNOW             3 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.78W
02/09/2017  M4.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS 4 INCHES STORM TOTAL IN THE LAST 12
            HOURS. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY

&&

LINGRAM

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2017Every gale warning in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.