Gale Warning 130, NWS Anchorage, AK

331 
FZAK52 PAFC 040003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041300-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH SUN MORNING. A FRONT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUN AS A
976 MB LOW MOVES TO 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-041300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ155-041300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-041300-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-041300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-041300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-041300-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-041300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-041300-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-041300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-041300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-041300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-041300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-041300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-041300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-041300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-041300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-041300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Thu Feb 2 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Impressive high latitude blocking is taking hold of the entire
region today as a stout omega/rex blocking high builds over the
center of the state. A decaying front is stationed over the
Central Bering Sea with an occluded North Pacific low southwest of
the Western Aleutians. A shortwave trough rotating around the
southern periphery of the blocking high is retrograding to the
west-northwest across the Eastern Aleutians. Weak offshore winds
are occurring along the North Gulf Coast with weak flow across
inland locales. Patchy fog has begun to develop near Cook Inlet
and Knik Arm, and this is expected to expand overnight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in excellent agreement both in the short term and
into the extended. Forecast confidence is extremely high with the
exception being the areal coverage of inland fog across
Southcentral as the overall flow remains weak.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog is being observed across south Anchorage and across
parts of Knik Arm. It is expected to expand into the terminal
sometime late this evening and early overnight. There is
uncertainty in both cigs and visibility reduction as this fog
moves in, but the forecast will be trended towards fog
development.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The warm upper level ridge will continue to build over
Southcentral Alaska tonight, keeping dry offshore flow and and
mostly clear conditions in the forecast over the next few days.
The only departure from the clear and dry conditions is the fog
developing over the Cook Inlet region and parts of the Copper
River Basin this evening, and persisting through Saturday. The
ongoing dry offshore flow should help keep down the amount that
develops over the inland areas, but with the strong inversion and
warm air aloft in place over the area, the stage has been set for
fog to develop. Some gusty outflow winds will persist into Friday
along the North Gulf coast, with the strongest gusts through the
Eastern Prince William Sound gaps.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Clear, colder, and dry conditions will continue to stay entrenched
across the mainland. The exception will be the Kuskokwim Valley
which will see fog and low stratus building during the overnight
hours and thinning some during the day. High pressure through the
column will stay to the north of the area, keeping precipitation
and clouds away from the area. Dry offshore flow will keep the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay area from developing any fog or
precipitation with generally light northerly wind. Continued
radiational cooling in the Interior will keep temperatures below
normal as that air is advected toward the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Continued southeasterly flow will persist through the period. Two
fronts and a disturbance are making the active weather over the
Bering. The first front over the central Bering will continue to
weaken and move westward over the next couple days. A disturbance
aloft will bring scattered rain and snow showers from Dutch Harbor
and the Alaska Peninsula through the Pribilof Islands overnight
into Friday. A new front will hit the western Aleutians late
tonight, then stall overhead. A north pacific low pressure system
will begin to affect the western/central Bering on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Conditions Sat night through Sun will be controlled by High
pressure over mainland AK, the eastern Bering, and the Gulf of AK.
A front will be stalled against the western flank of the High.
Warm advection on southerly flow will bring rain and widespread
gale force winds to the western Aleutians and Bering.
For mainland AK and the eastern Aleutians no precipitation is
expected, with normal temperatures for early February.

Beginning on Mon an upper level low sweeps a trough across
western AK as the surface high spreads both east and west.
Although models are depicting this upper low to be deep, they
currently are showing the system to be dry, with only clouds
affecting the area west of the Alaska and Aleutian ranges. This
solution keeps mainland areas of the state cold and dry through
midweek and beyond. The western portion of the Bering and
Aleutians will remain under the diminishing influence of the
front, which becomes tilted northwest to southeast. By midweek a
low approaches the western Aleutians with a mix of rain and snow,
and gale force winds.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray...160 Gale WArning 173 175 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...DS