Flood Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

282 
WGAK68 PAFC 020614
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1014 PM AKDT Fri Sep 1 2017

AKZ135-030200-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.170904T1400Z-170906T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
1014 PM AKDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of Alaska...including the following area...Southeast 
  Prince William Sound. 

* From Monday morning through late Tuesday night

* Rain will begin Sunday evening and quickly become heavy at 
  times. The rain will likely continue through at least Tuesday 
  night, with a possible break Monday afternoon and evening. 
  Right now it appears likely that rainfall totals for the two 
  day period will reach at least 4 inches, with potential for 
  higher amounts. 

* Rises in rivers and streams are expected. Eyak Lake and the 
  Eyak River are not currently expected to flood. However, 
  smaller streams such as Power Creek, the Sheridan River, and 
  Salmon Creek may overflow their banks sending water onto 
  roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

908 
WGAK68 PAFC 030007
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

AKZ135-031530-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.170904T1400Z-170906T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
407 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Southeast Prince William Sound...including the following
  area...Cordova. 

* From Monday morning through late Tuesday night

* Rain will begin Sunday evening and quickly become heavy at 
  times. The rain will likely continue through at least Tuesday 
  night, with a possible break Monday afternoon and evening. 
  Right now it appears likely that rainfall totals for the two 
  day period will reach at least 4 inches, with potential for 
  higher amounts. 

* Rises in rivers and streams are expected. Eyak Lake and the 
  Eyak River are not currently expected to flood. However, 
  smaller streams such as Power Creek, the Sheridan River, and 
  Salmon Creek may overflow their banks sending water onto 
  roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

004 
WGAK68 PAFC 031201
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

AKZ135-040115-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.170904T1400Z-170906T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
401 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of Alaska...including the following area...Southeast 
  Prince William Sound. 

* From Monday morning through late Tuesday night

* Rain will begin this evening and quickly become heavy at times.
  The rain will likely continue through at least Tuesday night, 
  with a possible break Monday afternoon and evening. Right now it
  appears likely that rainfall totals for the two day period will
  reach at least 4 inches, with potential for higher amounts. 

* Rises in rivers and streams are expected. Eyak Lake and the 
  Eyak River are not currently expected to flood. However, 
  smaller streams such as Power Creek, the Sheridan River, and 
  Salmon Creek may overflow their banks sending water onto 
  roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

266 
WGAK68 PAFC 031812 CCA
FFAAFC

Flood Watch...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1012 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

AKZ135-040115-
/O.COR.PAFC.FA.A.0001.170904T1400Z-170906T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
1012 AM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Southeast Prince William Sound. 

* From Monday morning through late Tuesday night

* Rain will begin this evening and quickly become heavy at times.
  The rain will likely continue through at least Tuesday night, 
  with a possible break Monday afternoon and evening. Right now it
  appears likely that rainfall totals for the two day period will
  reach at least 4 inches, with potential for higher amounts. 

* Rises in rivers and streams are expected. Eyak Lake and the 
  Eyak River are not currently expected to flood. However, 
  smaller streams such as Power Creek, the Sheridan River, and 
  Salmon Creek may overflow their banks sending water onto 
  roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

071 
WGAK68 PAFC 032142
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
142 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

AKZ135-042145-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.170904T1400Z-170906T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
142 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Southeast Prince William Sound.
  

* From Monday morning through late Tuesday night

* Rain will begin this evening and quickly become heavy at 
  times. The rain will likely continue through at least Tuesday 
  night, with a possible break Monday afternoon and evening. 
  Right now it appears likely that rainfall totals for the two 
  day period will reach at least 4 inches, with potential for 
  higher amounts. 

* Rises in rivers and streams are expected. Eyak Lake and the 
  Eyak River are not currently expected to flood. However, 
  smaller streams such as Power Creek, the Sheridan River, and 
  Salmon Creek may overflow their banks sending water onto 
  roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

971 
WGAK68 PAFC 040631
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1031 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

AKZ135-050200-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0001.170905T1400Z-170906T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
1031 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of Alaska...including the following area...Southeast 
  Prince William Sound. 

* From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night

* Following roughly 1 to 2 inches of rain expected out of the
  frontal system lifting through early Monday through Monday 
  night, rainfall rates will increase substantially Tuesday 
  morning as a frontal wave pushes in from the east. An additional
  2 to 4 inches of rain is possible between Tuesday and Tuesday 
  night with the bulk of that expected to fall during the 18 hours
  between 6 am and midnight.

* Rises in rivers and streams are expected. Eyak Lake and the 
  Eyak River are not currently expected to flood. However, 
  smaller streams such as Power Creek, the Sheridan River, and 
  Salmon Creek may overflow their banks sending water onto 
  roadways. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

875 
WGAK68 PAFC 042144
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
144 PM AKDT Mon Sep 4 2017

AKZ135-042245-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0001.170905T1400Z-170906T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
144 PM AKDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch for the southeast portion of Alaska has been 
cancelled. The storm is moving more quickly than previously
forecast. Rises in streams are still expected but the general
threat of flooding has subsided.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level low persists centered west of Norton Sound with a
trough extending across the Kuskokwim and greater Bristol Bay area
to a secondary upper low centered over Shelikof Strait and the
Barren Islands. While scattered showers rotate around portions of
the upper lows, the more organized and widespread area of
precipitation is associated with the front/trough stretching
across the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf coast. A developing
north Pacific surface low south of the central Aleutians is
tracking east in phase with an upper trough extending into the
Bering from a vertically stacked low off of the Kamchatka
Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Although trending it slightly further south, models have come into
better agreement regarding the position and depth of the strong
low spinning up south of the Alaska Peninsula this weekend. The NAM
was the model of choice for the eastern domain while a NAM/GFS
blend was preferred for the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Despite some lingering southeasterly flow, spill over
moisture making it over the Chugach Mountains will continue to
bring scattered showers and periods of MVFR ceilings this
morning. By midday as the upper trough lifts north and the flow
turns more southerly, shower coverage will increase somewhat
before tapering off overnight tonight through Saturday morning as
southeasterly flow increases again over the area, strengthening
downsloping.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A cold upper low moving north across Southcentral today will bring
widespread showers. The cold air with this system will
sufficiently destabilize the atmosphere to produce a few
thunderstorms over the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.
Thunderstorms primarily will be concentrated near the Talkeetna
Mountains. Except for coastal locations, showers will become more
isolated tonight. Ridging building along the North Gulf
Coast/southern Copper River Basin, will produce brisk south winds
across the Basin this afternoon through evening.

On Saturday, a developing low and leading frontal trough
approaching the AK Pen will bring increasing winds and steady
rains to the western Gulf/Kodiak island by afternoon. By Saturday
night, rains will spread north to the Gulf coast/Kenai Peninsula
with areas in the lee of the Chugach Mountains predominately
downsloped. Winds will also increase to gale strength over the
Western Gulf/Kodiak Island with increased gap flows across the
mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The persistent upper level trough that brought rain to much of
the area east of Bethel this week has now shifted east of most
areas, which will allow for a brief period of quiet weather today.
Clear skies overnight along with cold air moving in from the next
trough approaching from the north has brought the coldest
temperatures of the season to the area with most areas falling
into the 30's with a few areas along the Kuskokwim River flirting
with the freezing mark. These cold temperatures are not expected
to reoccur tonight as cloud cover and slightly warmer temperatures
will move through that area with the next upper low. This system
will bring another round of rain to most areas this afternoon into
Saturday. The most widespread and heaviest rainfall will however
hold off until Saturday as the upper trough begins to merge with a
much deeper system approaching from the Bering. Model agreement
has improved significantly in the last 24 hours, so there is now
good confidence that it will keep rainy weather over much of the
region this weekend. Eastern Bristol Bay will remain mostly dry
from this system as downsloping develops along with strong
easterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The next weather maker will continue moving through Western-
Central Bering today, with the most significant impact being rain
throughout the Aleutian/Pribilof Islands. This system will deepen
significantly this evening as it dips into the North Pacific, bringing
widespread gale force winds from Dutch Harbor eastward on
Saturday, which will then increase to storm force as it approaches
the AK pen on Sunday with widespread rain throughout the weekend.
The models are coming into a consensus with a more southerly low
track of this system, so it now appears that impacts from this
system will largely remain south of the Pribilof Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

This forecast period the longwave pattern features broad troughing
with a closed low near St. Lawrence Island and a second closed low
south of the AK Peninsula. As time marches forward, the energy to
the north will be absorbed into the main center of cyclonic
circulation. All of the operational runs ping into a tight
pressure gradient as the low bombs out, with widespread
diffluence and moisture advection into southwest and south central
AK. There are some timing issues with the QPF placement and track
of the surface low, but generally expecting wet and unsettled
weather from this cyclone this forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 150 155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...PJS