Brisk Wind Advisory 45, NWS Anchorage, AK

828 
FZAK51 PAFC 010000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011300-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 977 MB LOW NEAR CHIRIKOF ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 1005 MB WHILE 
DRIFTING TO 85 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD BY SUN MORNING..THEN DISSIPATE 
OVER COOK INLET SUN AFTERNOON. A FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF 
COAST TONIGHT WHILE THE TRAILING FRONT CROSSES THE GULF OF ALASKA 
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-011300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011300-
PORT VALDEZ-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND 
RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011300-
VALDEZ ARM-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN 
SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT...BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT N OF 
DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011300-
CHINIAK BAY-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011300-
MARMOT BAY-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 31 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND 15 KT OVER
THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 2 FT EXCEPT 3 FT OVER THE OUTER BAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 PM AKDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Corrected for marine warnings.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level low is currently centered south of the Alaska
Peninsula with an associated 968 mb low at the surface. An
impressive baroclinic zone stretches from the low northwards
along the north gulf coast, with much warmer air to the south. It
is supporting a low level jet along the coast and will be the
main weather driver across the region over the next several days.
Radar imagery is showing widespread showers across the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound which are supported by
the baroclinic zone. Along the northwest side of this low, broad
northwesterly flow is supporting generally sunny skies and colder
temperatures across the Kuskokwim Delta with broad areas of light
showers across the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in generally good agreement synoptically. However there
is a wide range of solutions for precipitation type across the
Alaska Peninsula. The Canadian models are the most aggressive in
bringing warm air towards Dillingham overnight, which would
drastically limit snow amounts. Meanwhile the NAM retains the cold
air longer resulting in greater snow amounts. Currently the middle
ground GFS is the model of choice.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Strong cross-barrier flow will keep ceilings at or near VFR
conditions into tomorrow morning due to downsloping. Some low
level wind shear is possible as northerly winds increase near the
surface, but southeasterly winds remain above the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A front is tracking north through the Gulf that will push into
coastal locations tonight. It will bring snow along the north Gulf
coast that will transition to rain with the strong push of warm
air associated with the front. Some higher elevations will stay
with snow but there should be enough low level warm air to bring
rain to low lying areas. The southerly flow behind the front will
continue through Saturday which will keep bringing precip to
coastal locations. Inland locations will be protected from most of
the precip by the coastal ranges, but some showers may sneak
through. Temperatures throughout Southcentral Alaska look to
increase due to the front with afternoon temperatures around much
of Southcentral rising into the 40s for Friday and Saturday
afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Enhanced southeast flow ahead of an occluded front will continue
to steer moisture into the region. However, as time elapses the
surface low will begin to fill and the moisture flux will nose its
way into the southwest...bringing the threat of snow north of
Dillingham. As mentioned above, models are differing in how much
warm air moves up from the north Pacific, decreasing confidence in
forecast snow amounts. Additional adjustments to snow amounts are
possible...at this time no headlines were issued for winter
weather products.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The latest ASCAT pass shows gale force winds over portions of the
eastern Aleutians. The low continues on track. Expecting moisture
to wrap into the Eastern Aleutians this forecast period and
bumped up POPs and QPF this package. A tight pressure gradient
associated with this feature will persist into Saturday. Cold air
advection will follow in the wake of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Continued upper level support upstream of an upper level trough
anchored across the Bering Sea and northern Pacific Ocean will
help amplify the through much of next week. As this happens, a
surplus of jet energy will help wrap up a series of upper level
waves into fairly strong closed upper level lows. The most
noticeable of these lows will be one that develops somewhere near
42N to 44N and 164W to 159W on Tuesday. As this low develops, a
very strong surface low will develop in response and quickly push
into the Gulf of Alaska. Another low is expected to develop
Thursday or Friday but will likely be deflected further east
toward the Alaska Panhandle as the upper level trough shifts
eastwards. However, the low on Tuesday which moves into the
central Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday will bring some strong winds
to the offshore and coastal waters while another round of moderate
rain (and snow at higher elevations) to the Gulf coast. Inland
locations once again look to remain dry as the low position will
likely keep many locations downsloped. Temperatures across
Southcentral Alaska will likely remain a good bit above normal as
warmer air continues to get advected northward due in large part
to the amplified trough across the region. Southwest Alaska will
not be as warm or as wet as Southcentral Alaska as the orientation
of the upper level trough will keep much of the warmer and wetter
air east of the area.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm warning 119 130 131 138 139.
Gale warning 120 125 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 174 180 351
414.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 179 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS/DEK
LONG TERM...MC