Brisk Wind Advisory 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

701 
FZAK51 PAFC 091205
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100045-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF 
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-100045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-100045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-100045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-100045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-100045-
PORT VALDEZ-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-100045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-100045-
VALDEZ ARM-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-100045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-100045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-100045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-100045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-100045-
CHINIAK BAY-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-100045-
MARMOT BAY-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-100045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-100045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-100045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ141-100045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
305 AM AKST THU MAR 9 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 AM AKST Wed Mar 8 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High amplitude upper level ridging extends north through the
Bering Strait with a closed upper low over the Panhandle of
Alaska. A weakening shortwave trough is moving into the Chukchi
Sea this morning with a sheared out vorticity axis extending
south into northwest Alaska. There is a gale force warm front
stationed over the far Western Bering Sea/Aleutians associated
with a parent upper low over the Kamchatka Peninsula. At the
surface, this is continuing to push air mass through Southern
Alaska and the associated mountain gaps, especially across
Southcentral where moderate cold air packing is supporting a
stronger pressure gradient along the North Gulf Coast. This will
tighten today as the upper ridge axis moves east and the
geopotential height gradient aloft strengthens.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in excellent agreement with the general
large scale pattern heading deep into next week. They are also in
good agreement with the smaller scale details with the outflow
wind pattern. As a result, higher resolution models such as the
NAM were favored owing to their increased wind resolution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will dominate with gusty northerly winds
expected to remain at the terminal through late tonight. They
should begin to weaken slowly as the pressure gradient relaxes
Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cool, breezy, and dry conditions will continue through Thursday
night. The upper level flow becomes more cyclonic today. As a
result, winds will be a little higher today and tonight than they
have been for the last couple of days. On Thursday the winds will
diminish again as the upper level ridge pushes further east into
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Southwest Alaska region remains under the influence of
offshore flow with continued omega blocking over the Bering Sea.
Therefore, look for high pressure to build into the Southwest
Alaska accompanied by sunny skies with cooler temperatures
heading into the midweek time-frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The high pressure creating the omega block remains over the
Central/Eastern Bering through this week. A gale force low
tracks through the Kamchatka Peninsula this morning with the
associated weather swinging through the Western Aleutians and the
western Bering Sea. This will bring southerly gale force winds
with marine layer stratus accompanied by rain heading into
Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon the aforementioned
synoptic feature will diminish as the weather front exits the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning late Thursday, expect continued dry conditions, lighter
winds, and cold, but relatively warmer temperatures to current
ones. The upper level pattern looks much the same to what we're
experiencing currently. The biggest difference in the pattern is
ridging over the Bering Sea will develop into a closed blocking
high, while troughing remains over the eastern Gulf and Panhandle.
While the flow remains northerly in an outflow pattern similar to
the current pattern, the Bering ridge nosing in from the west will
considerably moderate temperatures in the low-level. Radiational
cooling will still dominate, so morning lows will be chilly
(single digits or less), but the warmer airmass will make for
daytime highs in the 20's.

Into the weekend, the blocking high is progged to retrograde
westward. The main effect will be to keep the northerly flow, and
increase the chances of getting more arctic air back over the
area. Sensible weather looks much the same over this time period.
High confidence in dry weather, winds will be generally light
northerly, except for along the north Gulf coast which will
feature gusty winds. Temperatures will be below normal, with the
exact values dependent on the amount of wind present.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 121 127 177 178 185 411.
Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126 127 129 130 139 150.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JRA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PLD
LONG TERM...MTL