Brisk Wind Advisory 32, NWS Anchorage, AK

009 
FZAK52 PAFC 031244
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040145-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 1002 
MB LOW WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AND MOVE
TO 170 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 992 MB TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE 
OVER KAMCHATKA BY SAT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL 
BERING WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH SAT 
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-040145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-040145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-040145-
BRISTOL BAY-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ165-040145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-040145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-040145-
UNALASKA BAY-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-040145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-040145-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-040145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-040145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-040145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-040145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-040145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-040145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-040145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ181-040145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ185-040145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
344 AM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT 
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 40 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

630 
FZAK52 PAFC 040023
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041345-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH 
SUN AFTERNOON. A FRONT STRETCHES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AS A SERIES OF LOW 
CENTERS TRACK ALONG THE FRONT INTO KAMCHATKA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-041345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-041345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-041345-
BRISTOL BAY-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ165-041345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-041345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-041345-
UNALASKA BAY-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-041345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-041345-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-041345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-041345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-041345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-041345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PAC SIDE.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-041345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-041345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-041345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ181-041345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ185-041345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
323 PM AKST FRI MAR 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING 
NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 40 KT W OF SAINT 
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... E 35 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKST Thu Mar 2 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An omega blocking pattern dominates the early morning weather map
with a ridge of high pressure encompassing much of the Bering Sea
and upper level lows residing near Shemya and over the Gulf of
Alaska. This blocking pattern has kept conditions across much of
Alaska pretty steady-state the past 24 hours. However, cold air
has continued to filter southward across the state from a very
cold air mass extending as far north as 80 degrees N which has
allowed temperatures to plummet across the state. As of this
morning, many locations across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
has dropped into the single digits with quite a few locations
dropping below zero.

Pretty sizable thermal gradients have developed across portions of
the Matanuska Valley and Copper River Basin as several sites have
decoupled and allowed them to cool off while other sites remain
windy and a bit warmer. It's been quite difficult, and will
continue to be difficult through this weekend, determining which
locations will decouple which can lead to a tricky temperature
forecast at night. Speaking of winds, outflow winds have been
increasing overnight across much of Southcentral Alaska as high
pressure builds over the interior of Alaska and an area of low
pressure spins in the Gulf of Alaska. The strongest winds have
been observed through Thompson Pass, Valdez, Whittier and the
Copper River Delta.

The Space Weather Prediction Center is forecasting pretty good
chances for aurora viewing the next couple of days. In addition,
sky cover will remain mostly clear which should allow for those
with an interest in the aurora to get an opportunity for a decent
show of the northern lights. Just remember to dress warmly as
temperatures will be below normal with some areas seeing temperatures
and/or wind chills below zero.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Numerical guidance remains in very good agreement with the
blocking pattern situated across Alaska and the Bering Sea. There
are some slight deviations in some of the guidance on how much
cold air moves south and how quickly which can complicate the
temperature forecast a bit but it's safe to say temperatures will
remain a good bit below normal through next week. There is also a
little discrepancy on how quickly the outflow winds taper off on
Friday but the strongest winds are expected today and the models
are in pretty good agreement on the onset of the strongest winds
starting late this morning. The NAMnest was utilized for wind
update as it handles the gap winds very well due to the resolution
and a blend of the NAM and GFS was used for the rest of the
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and gusty northerly winds are expected to
persist into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The forecast pretty much holds steady state over the next couple
of days. Low pressure will continue over the Gulf with high
pressure and colder temperatures over the mainland. As a result
pressure gradients will remain fairly tight and continue brisk to
very strong gap flows through Friday. Valdez and Thompson pass
will be the areas of greatest concern for warning level winds
beginning later this morning and continuing through Friday
afternoon. Cold air pooling in the Copper River Basin will
strengthen the thermal gradients. Combined with strong pressure
gradients, northerly flow aloft, and strong downward momentum
transport will be enough to kick winds into warning levels. Winds
should drop below warning Friday afternoon as gradients relax
some. Elsewhere across the mainland gusty gap flows will continue
through Friday. This will make for tricky temperature forecasts,
as windy areas will be well mixed and generally have higher
temperatures. While calm areas or areas that decouple will radiate
out and see fairly cold temps.

A strong upper short wave dropping south across Kodiak Island
will kick up marine winds over the western Gulf this afternoon and
evenings. These areas will likely see winds increasing to storms
in some areas, especially across the Barren island marine areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Sunday)...
Widespread offshore flow over the Southwest Mainland will
continue to bring generally cold and dry conditions into the
weekend as a blocking high remains just to the west. One
exception to this will be as a slight chance of flurries or light
snow showers develop this evening as a weak shortwave quickly
passes overhead. Moisture is however extremely limited with this
feature, so anything that does form will likely be light, short
lived, and mostly confined to north facing slopes. Beginning on
Saturday, the omega block over the Bering will begin to erode
away, allowing the remnants of a frontal system to slide over the
northern edge of it, bringing increasing clouds and a chance of
snow back to the region for late Saturday-Sunday. There remains
significant uncertainty as how far inland this snowfall will
reach, so at this point it appears that the most likely areas to
receive snowfall will be the Kuskokwim Delta and coastal Bristol
Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The current weather pattern over the Bering Sea will continue to
hold into Friday, allowing for northerly gale force winds and snow
showers to continue to over the Eastern Bering/AK Pen. Starting
late friday the omega block over the Central Bering will begin to
break down allowing for rain and snow to spread into the Pribilofs
on Saturday from a weakening front. Further to the south however,
it appears that the omega block will remain strong enough to keep
much of the precipitation from this front just north of the
Eastern Aleutians/AK Pen on Saturday. This front will then spread
into the AK Pen on Sunday, bringing a light snow back into that
area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Colder and drier conditions are expected through the extended
forecast as the Bering ridge blocks any organized storm systems
from the southern mainland. On Friday night the upper ridge is
forced a little further south back into the Pacific as low
pressure in the western Bering, along with a second system from
the Arctic, send strong shortwaves toward the southern mainland. A
weak front which manages to undercut the ridge in the western
Bering sends a front into the central and northern Bering, however
it weakens rapidly as the upper wave shears apart as it rides
along the northern periphery of the ridge. The ridge re-amplifies
across the Bering late weekend as the energy from the shortwave
flows downstream of the ridge. The ECMWF maintained the best
consistency through the middle of next week and was the primary
influence in making minimal grid updates with this slowly evolving
pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 131.
MARINE...Storm 127 130 131 132 138 150.
         Gale 119 120 121 126 128 136 137 155 160 175 176 177 178 180.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 121 126 127 129 130 131 139 150 160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...KH