Brisk Wind Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

093 
FZAK52 PAFC 020033
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021330-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. A 1007
MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA THU EVENING THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH 
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-021330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE 
MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-021330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-021330-
BRISTOL BAY-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-021330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM PORT
MOLLER E.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-021330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-021330-
UNALASKA BAY-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-021330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF DUTCH
HARBOR.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-021330-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-021330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-021330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-021330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-021330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ178-021330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-021330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT
PAUL ISLAND IN THE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-021330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-021330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-021330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
333 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKST Tue Feb 28 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level trough continues to dig southward across the
western Gulf of Alaska, supporting a surface low in the Gulf.
To the west, the ridge continues to amplify across the Western
Bering, with broad high pressure at the surface. The pressure
gradient between these two features has been generating gusty
gap winds along the north Gulf coast. The mixing associated
with these winds has kept overnight temperatures warmer.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in generally good agreement today in capturing the
gusty winds across portions of central Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta. Models are also in general agreement of the
outflow winds very gradually weakening through the evening hours.
The high resolution models are still performing the best at
capturing these gap winds and as a result were favored for the
forecast. In addition, models are generally in agreement of the
trough digging southward and the intensification of the upper
level low as it pinches off.

&&

.AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions and gusty northerly winds to
persist through Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
In two words: cold, windy. The upper level pattern remains pretty
steady state for the next 48 hours. The only precipitation over
the area will remain over Gulf waters as several disturbances
rotate around the upper low pressure. Gusty wind will continue
to be the main forecast issue elsewhere. The surface pressure
gradient will stay compressed along the north gulf coast,
continuing gap winds in favored locations. Mountain-wave activity
will weaken in the Valdez area tonight, so gusts, while still
continuing, will not be as severe as last night and this morning.
Winds will continue at the same level through the pass.

The gradient shifts slightly tonight, favoring more winds in the
Matanuska Valley with gusts into the 40s. This shift will also
bring more gusty winds into the Cook Inlet region with the
strongest gusts right along the Inlet. While the air mass is much
colder, these winds will keep temperatures from dropping further.

On Thursday, winds will pulse upward along the Gulf coast once
again with the potential to be stronger than the current event.
Keep an eye on the forecast for further updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With high pressure over the Bering and low pressure over the
Gulf of Alaska, northerly flow will continue into Thursday. The
northerly winds will bring down dry, colder air from the north
and also help to keep skies clear. With unstable conditions and
shortwaves moving through the area, gusty winds are expected
through tonight and into Wednesday. The combination of winds and
cold temperatures will bring cold wind chills for much of
southwest Alaska tonight and Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure over the central Bering will keep most of the
activity out west over the Western Aleutians. An old stalled front
sits over the area while another weak system moves toward the
Western Aleutians from the south. This system will also be stalled
by the high pressure as it nears the islands. Out east over the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, northerly flow will bring
showers to the Bering side of the islands and peninsula. The
showers will diminish early Wednesday as the main trough moving
through the area pushes off to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By the beginning of the extended forecast period (Friday) much
of the region will have already undergone a transition in the
overall pattern, with a broad upper level trough over much of the
Mainland and Gulf, and strong ridging out west over the Bering Sea
and Aleutians. This general setup will persist through early next
week, which will consist of colder air filtering down from the
arctic and strong outflow winds over parts of the Southern
Mainland. Models remain in good agreement with the overall pattern
into the weekend. As expected though, there is more uncertainty
with regards to the finer details, especially with respect to low
amplitude shortwave troughs diving south toward the Gulf of Alaska
coast Friday through Monday.

All three major global deterministic models, (the ECMWF, Canadian
GDPS, and GFS) along with their respective ensembles, are also
depicting a rather significant bora polar air outbreak across much
of Mainland Alaska. There is potential of seeing 850 hpa
temperatures reaching as low as -20C to -30C across the Southern
Mainland with cold offshore flow along the coast. The March sun
should moderate some of the cold air at the surface, but the
reality of this situation is it will be quite cold and well below
average for the next 7-9 days, dominated by dry offshore flow and
cold interior temperatures.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 126 127 129 130 136 137
138 139 141 150 160 165 180 185. Gale Warning 127 130 131 132 136
137 139 150 155 165 175 176 177 178 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP