Wind Advisory 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

634 
WWUS73 KABR 272336
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
536 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2017


SDZ003-004-009-280045-
/O.EXP.KABR.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-170128T0000Z/
CORSON-CAMPBELL-WALWORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCINTOSH...HERREID...MOBRIDGE
536 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2017 /436 PM MST FRI JAN 27 2017/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS
EVENING...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
521 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017

A weak surface trough situated across the James valley this
morning separates cold air from warm air advection. Additionally,
low level northwest flow will aid in mixing. The core of strongest
1/2km winds, around 50kts, will be located west river today. We
will also have a pressure gradient across the state at around
10mb. Despite this, BUFKIT mixed winds only top out in the mid and
upper 20s (knots). Guidance winds may be underdone however - based
on the 1/2km speeds. Either way, these winds should be enough to
generate some blowing/drifting snow issues. Otherwise, with warm
advection and sunshine, mixed temperatures will be around 30F for
highs.

Unfortunately this breakout of sunshine is going to be short lived.
NAM BUFKIT profiles indicate another area of stratus headed into the
region in the wake of the shortwave ridge tonight. Earlier guidance
suggested some light qpf could be possible out of this, though with
the deepest thickness of the cloud deck at only 3kft, that appears
unlikely.

We will see a series of weak shortwaves pass through the region
Saturday and Sunday. This will provide several opportunities for
additional light precipitation. Ptype will vary however, as
saturation within the dendritic growth zone is intermittent
according to NAM BUFKIT profiles.

Despite the cloud cover, mild air aloft and favorable mixing will
result in temperatures above average through the weekend. This will
modify snow cover, which will likely limit any additional blowing
snow potential for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017

The period starts off with a highly meridional pattern across the
conus, with a strong ridge west, and deep trof east. This general
pattern stays in place until late in the week when energy busts
through the ridge, and makes its way across the region. So, up until
Thursday, the forecast looks dry. After coordination did go and
raise winds some for Monday through Tuesday.  Decent looking clipper
will move toward the Great Lakes Monday, and sweep a front south
over the region at that time. Ahead of the front, mixing should be
good and with relatively mild h925/h850 airmass overhead,
temperatures look pretty mild on Monday, but then fall back toward
normal or even a bit below for the rest of the week. Several days of
mild temperatures leading up to the wind event suggests blsn might
be hard to come by on Monday. Also, i capped mention at patchy for
Monday night and Tuesday as temps fall below freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2017

VFR conditions are expected through most of the valid taf period.
Gusty winds will settle into the KPIR/KMBG areas this morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
400 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-281000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
400 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2017 /300 AM MST FRI JAN 27 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW TODAY...WITH THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND WEST RIVER THE
MAIN AREAS TO BE IMPACTED. DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH VERY STRONG WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1041 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LEBANON                 45.07N 99.77W
01/27/2017  E45 MPH          POTTER             SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH, WITH
            SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
            VISIBILITY FOR SEVERAL MILES WEST OF
            LEBANON.

&&

JT