Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
655 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Multiple waves of energy continue to slide through northwest flow
aloft, allowing for on and off precipitation chances through the
short term period. Currently showers over parts of the central and
eastern CWA continue to slowly slide southeast and dissipate,
however another round of showers and thunderstorms, associated
with what models depict as a stronger more intense shortwave, will
slide southeast out of North Dakota. Very little in the way of
instability, especially across the eastern CWA.

Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is likely this
afternoon, but with abundant cloud cover, do not expect to see a
significant increase in instability. Although, with dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s even a little surface heating could give way to
a stronger storm or two. While models all show the general trend of
precipitation, timing and coverage varies significantly, so a
broadbrushed approach to POPs persists through the today
period/tonight.

Temperatures will also be tricky this afternoon given the abundant
cloud cover that is likely to stick around for much of the day. If
anything, todays high temps may be a little to optimistic and may
trend on the warm side. Overall however, temperatures remain 5 to 10
degrees below normal for this time of the year.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

The long term models continue to be consistent and agree real well
with the upper level flow pattern over the region along with the
surface features. Northwest flow aloft dominates the period with one
short wave trough and their associated surface cool front after
another dropping out of Canada and across our region. Each one of
these systems will bring chances of showers and storms with them.
With the lack of heat and good moisture, severe weather chances
don't look good. Otherwise, there will be very little difference
in high temperatures from day to day from Monday through Saturday.
Below normal temperatures will remain mainly ranging from the mid
70s to the lower 80s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the
region through tonight as an upper level low pressure trough slides
through the region. Some of these will affect the stations at or in
the vicinity. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected through
tonight with possible MVFR cigs and vsbys in showers and storms.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
323 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-071200-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
323 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017 /223 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today and
tonight. Overall the severe threat with any storms today remains
low, however cannot rule out small hail or brief gusty winds with
the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

While Monday looks to be dry, the unsettled pattern will continue
through much of the week, and at this point, the severe storm
threat remains low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Serr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
844 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

SDZ033-045-061430-
Stanley SD-Jones SD-
844 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JONES AND
SOUTHWESTERN STANLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT/830 AM MDT/...

At 844 AM CDT/744 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Sansarc, or 32 miles south of Eagle Butte, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sansarc, Brown Church, Bunker and Hayes.

LAT...LON 4440 10115 4467 10115 4435 10057 4417 10105
      4417 10110 4432 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 321DEG 30KT 4453 10116

Telken