Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Aberdeen, SD

492 
WWUS53 KABR 120018
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
718 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

MNC155-120027-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-170712T0045Z/
Traverse MN-
718 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVERSE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has 
weakened. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota...and northeastern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4542 9697 4546 9701 4552 9668 4538 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 259DEG 12KT 4541 9692 

$$

MNC011-SDC109-120045-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-170712T0045Z/
Big Stone MN-Roberts SD-
718 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BIG STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES...

At 717 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Wilmot, or 18
miles south of Sisseton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Wilmot, Bonanza Grove, Yankeetown and Big Stone Lake. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4542 9697 4546 9701 4552 9668 4538 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 259DEG 12KT 4541 9692 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KF

641 
WWUS53 KABR 120036
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
736 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

MNC011-SDC109-120046-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-170712T0045Z/
Big Stone MN-Roberts SD-
736 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BIG STONE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire. However, additional 
storms are developing across central Roberts County this evening.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota...and northeastern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4542 9697 4546 9701 4552 9668 4538 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 243DEG 13KT 4542 9680 

$$

KF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
617 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Hot temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s are currently residing
from the James valley westward into central SD. Dewpoints have mixed
out lower in many places, but still seeing scattered obs reporting
heat indices at or just above 100 degrees within portions of the
heat advisory. Will leave headline in place until its current
expiration time.

Also keeping an eye on the couple areas of cumulus across the region
for possible convective initiation. Unfortunately, a fairly low
confidence forecast in regards to timing and areal coverage of
storms later this afternoon and evening. It still appears best area
for strong to severe storms will be over northeast SD into west
central MN, generally east of the James River. Ribbon of moderate to
strong instability is setting up over eastern SD with sufficient
bulk shear. CAM solutions offer up no confidence as they vary
greatly in coverage and timing. The main theme though points to some
degree of development in the northeast counties later this afternoon
into the evening hours. Although, there are a few solutions showing
initiation further south from around Huron to Chamberlain, which is
where the cumulus field currently resides, so this is something to
watch. This would be within area of strongest daytime heating as
temps hover around 100 to 103 degrees. Any storms that do form this
afternoon and evening certainly may become severe with large hail
and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either,
mainly in the far northeast corner of the CWA where 0-1km shear is
the best.

Northerly winds and cooler temperatures are in store for Wednesday
behind the departing cool front. Although, it will still be warm
with highs mainly in the 80s. Dewpoints will be a bit lower for
eastern areas as the drier air mass works in.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

By 00Z Thursday, the 500mb pattern will show the 500mb low along
the Manitoba/Ontario border, with zonal flow giving way to ridging
from the west across our area. Expect the building ridge to our
west to slide directly overhead Friday through the weekend. It
will still remain nearby through early next week, but become
suppressed as low over the Gulf of Alaska moves into central
Canada. This will help support well above normal temperatures that
will be flirting with the 100 degree mark Friday through Tuesday.
At this time, Friday and Monday look to be the warmest days.

At the sfc, high pressure over southern Manitoba and northern ND
will continue to push a ridge across the forecast area through mid
day Friday as the high itself sinks across MN.

While a weak cold front slipping in from ND Friday night into
Saturday could bring isolated showers and storms to mainly north
central SD, not much is expected. Yet another sfc ridge will move in
for the rest of the weekend, exiting across MN Sunday. But what
about that day 7 forecast? Low pressure will be sliding into the
Central Plains later Monday, but it's nothing to get too excited
about quite yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

VFR for the next 24 hours, except in/near TS which, according to
the radar/satellite imagery and latest available short-range
guidance, could be impacting/moving within the vicinity of the
KABR/KATY terminals over then next 3 to 6 hours. Have introduced
some VCTS mention for now. Looks like some convection developing
about 15 to 20 miles west of KATY at this time. So, amendments for
TEMPO TS may be forthcoming sooner than later for that terminal.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ006-010-016>018-
     034>037-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Dorn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
403 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-120915-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
403 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017 /303 AM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The grassland fire danger will reach the high to very high
category today, along and west of the James valley. Expect south
to southwest winds ahead of a cold front, with winds speeds
topping out around 25mph. Behind the front, winds will be north to
northwest at 10 to 15mph.

The cold front will provide the focus for afternoon thunderstorms,
mainly along and east of the James river valley, including the
Sisseton hills region and into western Minnesota. Storms have the
potential to generate damaging winds and large hail. Storms will
track southeast through the evening departing the forecast area
during the early overnight hours.

Heat and humidity will combine to produce heat index values in the
upper 90s to low 100s before the front moves through.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Connelly

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             HAZEL                   44.76N 97.38W
07/11/2017  M1.00 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RL