Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
116 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Updated earlier for increasing chances of showers/storms along
with expanding chances farther west along with the watch
issuance. Not much for severe weather yet this evening with
chances looking less. Therefore, have cancelled a few counties.
Will continue to update as storms move east.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Short term forecast concern will be possibility of evening
convection across the northeast corner of the cwa followed by
another wave moving through on Thursday bringing another chance of
precip to portions of the area.

Warm frontal boundary parallels the James valley this afternoon
followed by a cold front entering the northwest corner of South
Dakota. Warm front has seemed to be a bit slower in progression
eastward this aftn than previously forecast. Vsbl Satl showing CU
field forming across north central SD/southern ND ahead of the
cold front. Instability starting to increase ahead of the cold
front with mlcapes 1000-1500 j/kg and decent deep layer sheer of
around 50 kts. The only bit of a caveat is fcst soundings do show
a bit a cap in place thru early eve across northeast South Dakota.

So, confidence not the highest in a widespread convective situation
happening this evening. However, a few of the CAM solutions do paint
a picture of a few strong to possibly severe storms popping ahead of
the cold front across northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota. Locally strong winds and large hail would be the primary
threats from any storms that do get going to build to strong enough
levels.

This front will clear the cwa later this evening and most areas
should be left with a quiet overnight. Another quick moving upper
level wave will traverse the region on Thursday. This will bring in
another round of precip to portions of the area. This system looks
to mainly affect areas along and south of a Highway 12 corridor. Not
expecting any severe weather with this system as most instability
remains well south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The long term period begins with a broad upper level trough over the
region with much cooler temperatures filtering into the CWA. The GFS
is showing a 500 mb shortwave crossing the region Friday
night/Saturday morning with showers possible, mainly in far NE SD
and western MN. 925 mb temps behind this system are only in the
single digits by 12Z Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday should
range in the mid to upper 60s, or some 15 degrees below normal.

Upper level ridging will slowly built into the region Sunday and
Monday before breaking down by Tuesday. Summer temperatures will
return to the region by Tuesday with highs reaching the 80s.
Humidity will also increase by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Numerous showers and storms will move from west to east across the
region tonight and Thursday as a short wave trough digs in from the
northwest. These are expected to affect all stations at or in the
vicinity with mainly VFR conditions through the period. These will
move east/end from late Thursday morning into late Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
529 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-221030-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
529 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 /429 AM MDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms across central South Dakota early this
morning are not expected to produce severe weather. By early
evening, isolated thunderstorms are possible across far eastern
South Dakota into west central Minnesota. A few storms could
become strong to severe with large hail and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers are expected across the region on Thursday, with a few
embedded thunderstorms. No severe storms are forecast at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

TMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
137 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

SDZ009-010-016>018-220730-
Spink SD-Walworth SD-Potter SD-Edmunds SD-Faulk SD-
137 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDMUNDS...FAULK...
NORTHEASTERN POTTER...NORTHWESTERN SPINK AND SOUTHEASTERN WALWORTH
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 137 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tolstoy, or 16 miles northeast of Gettysburg, moving east at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Faulkton, Cresbard, Lebanon, Seneca, Tolstoy, Rockham, Chelsea,
Devoe, Onaka, Miranda, Brentwood Colony, Burkmere, Norbeck and South
Scatterwood Lake.

LAT...LON 4504 9981 4525 9972 4520 9863 4490 9878
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 285DEG 47KT 4513 9965

TDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
213 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

SDZ017-018-037-220800-
Hand SD-Spink SD-Faulk SD-
213 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAND...SOUTHEASTERN
FAULK AND SOUTHWESTERN SPINK COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 212 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orient, or 7 miles southeast of Faulkton, moving east at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Redfield, Tulare, Frankfort, Hitchcock, Zell, Orient, Rockham,
Miranda, Twin Lakes, Cottonwood Lake and Spottswood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4495 9825 4463 9841 4463 9846 4488 9919
      4505 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 286DEG 47KT 4494 9906

TDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
256 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

SDZ020-022-023-220845-
Hamlin SD-Deuel SD-Codington SD-
256 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DEUEL...NORTHERN
HAMLIN AND SOUTHERN CODINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 255 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goose Lake, or 10 miles southwest of Watertown, moving southeast at
45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Estelline, Castlewood, Hazel, Thomas, Pelican Lake, Goose
Lake, Tinkertown, Claremont Colony, Dempster, Sandy Shore Rec Area,
Poinsett Colony, Memorial Park Camping Site, Lake Kampeska and Long
Lake.

LAT...LON 4479 9749 4494 9738 4484 9670 4455 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 296DEG 40KT 4482 9734

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     HAIL             CASTLEWOOD              44.73N 97.03W
06/22/2017  E1.00 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
422 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 AM     HAIL             3 NE PIERRE             44.41N 100.28W
06/22/2017  E1.75 INCH       HUGHES             SD   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
425 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE THOMAS            44.73N 97.19W
06/22/2017                   HAMLIN             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED BLOCKING INTERSECTION
            OF HIGHWAYS 81 AND 22 AT KONES CORNER.

&&