Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
441 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours as
increasing moisture and isentropic lift advects northward into
eastern SD. Severe storms earlier tonight are in the process of
becoming a bowing line with damaging winds possible. The 0Z CAMS
had this bowing segment further north than current radar returns.
Based on the current storm movement, convection should be east of
this CWA by 6 am. However, additional thunderstorms are moving
into the far west CWA and will be need to be monitored.

Unsettled weather will be the main theme in our area through
Tuesday. The 500mb low will be set up along the northern CA/NV
border at 00Z Monday. At the surface, the cold front will be set up
from the parent low across NE through far southeastern SD and
southern MN. At this point, the evolution is still a little
uncertain, but the 500mb low ejecting northward into ID by the end
of the day Monday will bring a temporary ridge across our area.
While the southern portions of the forecast area may be capped, with
700mb temps of 10-13C, and more so Monday night into Tuesday morning
over the east. The best chance of stronger storm development looks
to remain across western SD, closer to the 500mb low. Look for the
sfc low over NE to either remain steady before retrograding across
western NE and SD late Monday night, lifting the cold front back
north as a warm front Monday night-Tuesday. The sfc low will push
across central SD on Tuesday as an additional low develops under the
500mb low as it crosses eastern SD on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Model solutions look pretty consistent with the overall 500mb flow,
with the low exiting across western ND and into south central Canada
on Wednesday. The 00Z run of the Canadian was deeper and faster with
the sfc low exit into south central Canada Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The passage of the cold front looks to be our next chance
of showers/storms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Will
need to wait and see what can develop across eastern SD and western
MN. The cold front looks to finally exit to our east Wednesday
afternoon, as the entire system shifts farther into Canada. Zonal
flow should set up at 500mb, with a ridge building in at the sfc
through the rest of the period. For those looking for a cool down,
we will likely need to wait until next weekend, when 850mb temps
fall into the low teens to upper single digits (coolest over our
northeast).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will spread from west to east across
the CWA overnight into Sunday morning. Periods of MVFR cigs and
vsbys are possible with the thunderstorms. By midday Sunday, VFR
conditions will prevail across the entire area.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
908 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-111415-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
908 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 /808 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible late tonight through Sunday
morning. Some thunderstorms could produce large hail and strong
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday morning, mainly across
eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Large hail and
strong winds will be the main threats with any stronger storms
that develop.

There will be additional chances for thunderstorms Sunday night
through Monday night. Strong to severe storms will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
150 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     HAIL             2 ESE JOE CREEK REC ARE 44.13N 99.75W
06/11/2017  E1.75 INCH       LYMAN              SD   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
447 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 AM     HAIL             GARDEN CITY             44.96N 97.58W
06/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       CLARK              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 TO 8 MINUTES OF HAIL RANGING FROM DIMES TO
            QUARTERS.

&&

KG