Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

A rather large complex of showers and thunderstorms has been ongoing
for several hours across northwest and now into central/north
central SD. Mid level impulse moving across the region is responsible
for this. Hi-res models are just now catching onto this feature,
while several hours ago they were all performing rather poorly.
Still not too confident on the evolution of all this, but it appears
this activity will move into the James valley in the next few hours
before gradually diminishing in coverage as it moves further east.
There could be some additional development across the area as well,
but indications point to this being the main show for the time
being. That said, all the cloud cover associated with this complex
could prevent viewing of the eclipse, but mainly for eastern areas
of the CWA. Central SD into the James River valley appears to be in
a decent opportunity for viewing as the back edge of the cloud cover
moves across the region later this morning.

Surface high pressure will build south into the area overnight,
bringing mostly clear skies and dry conditions. This high will
remain in place on Tuesday with tranquil conditions and pleasant
temperatures. In fact, the high will still have an influence over
the area on Wednesday and it appears dry conditions will continue
through mid-week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Not much change overall to the extended which will feature a
meridional pattern, starting with a high amplitude upper ridge
moving into the central CONUS. An upper trough will move into
northwest Canada, resulting in zonal flow for the weekend, with an
upper ridge building back across the western CONUS for the start of
next week. Generally this will result in dry conditions with only a
short period where we will see any shortwave activity or mid level
moisture - Friday and Saturday. As for temperatures, we start with a
broad expanse of high pressure to the southeast and northeast
initially, with a lee low across western Nebraska. Low level flow
will be east to southeast for the latter half of the work week, so
Thursday will feature average temperatures. The flow becomes more
southerly ahead of the upper pattern transition, leading to
temperatures a touch above average for Friday. A quick frontal
passage will bring our numbers back closer to average for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected. We could see some high based
convection in the KPIR/KMBG terminals overnight as well.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Connelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
458 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-221000-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
458 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 /358 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An area of showers and thunderstorms early this morning over
central South Dakota with push east through late morning. A few
storms could be strong to severe, with large hail possible.
Otherwise, additional thunderstorm development is possible today,
but the overall areal coverage is expected to diminish, with only
a low threat for severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

TMT