Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

130 
WWUS53 KABR 160827
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
327 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

SDC039-051-160837-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170516T0830Z/
Deuel SD-Grant SD-
327 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DEUEL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4464 9650 4470 9671 4513 9646 4469 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 207DEG 37KT 4498 9637 

$$

TDK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
251 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Radar has recently become quite active with elevated convection
developing along the leading edge of a low level jet, while we see
the passage of a weak wave embedded within southwest flow aloft. As
the morning progresses and this wave continues northeast, so too
will a surface low, tracking along the southern periphery of the
CWA. Northwest low level wind flow and loss of upper support will
result in profiles becoming more stable today, though can not
completely rule out additional convection based on NAM BUFKIT
soundings - CAMS are all dry and the NAM/GFS both follow that trend.
Additionally lack of forcing aloft would suggest anything that does
develop due to daytime heating will be weak and isolated.

The next wave lifting out of Colorado brings moisture into the
forecast area early Wednesday. This system features a deep surface
low and jet support with Q-vector convergence. Negligible
instability with this system however so will leave out mention of
thunder. Will also see a strong gradient across the state with
northerly flow and low level cold advection. Freezing levels may
fall down below 2kft. This cold advection is reflected in the
blended guidance temperatures for the latter half of the work week
with 50s and low 60s Wed/Thur for highs, which may be optimistic.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually shear east
across the forecast area for late Thursday through the early part of
the weekend. Unsettled conditions with fairly decent chances for
rain are expected during this time period, however, severe weather
is not expected given the cool conditions forecast across the
Northern Plains.  A brief dry period is expected on Sunday, but then
more rain is possible early next week under cool northwest flow
aloft. Temperatures will begin the period below normal, but then
should trend toward normal by late in the weekend and early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
tonight into early Tuesday. These are expected to affect the
stations at or in the vicinity. There may also be some MVFR
ceilings. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected through
Tuesday with more shower/storm development Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
356 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-160900-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
356 AM CDT Mon May 15 2017 /256 AM MDT Mon May 15 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A round of general showers and thunderstorms will work from west
to east across South Dakota and into west central MN by late
morning/early afternoon.

There should be a break in the action this afternoon before a
second round of thunderstorms moves into the region this evening
and through the overnight hours. Isolated severe storms are
possible, and any storm that does go severe could have large
hail, strong winds, and produce heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The active pattern continues with thunderstorms chances Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. There is the possibility of a couple
of stronger storms Tuesday as well. More rain chances are possible
Wednesday, but only general thunder is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Serr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
232 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

SDZ019>023-160815-
Hamlin SD-Clark SD-Deuel SD-Grant SD-Codington SD-
232 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DEUEL...HAMLIN...SOUTH CENTRAL
GRANT...SOUTHEASTERN CLARK AND SOUTHEASTERN CODINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL
315 AM CDT...

At 231 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bryant to near Lake Benton. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Clear Lake, Estelline, Castlewood, Lake Norden, Bryant,
Hayti, Rauville, Gary, Toronto, Waverly, Kranzburg, Goodwin, Astoria,
Brandt, Hazel, Altamont, Bullhead Lake, Kellerton Church and Moritz.

LAT...LON 4454 9736 4459 9754 4507 9716 4488 9645
      4454 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 247DEG 48KT 4460 9737 4432 9635

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
244 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     HAIL             2 SSE STONE BRIDGE      44.58N 97.04W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
250 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

SDZ045-048-160830-
Lyman SD-Jones SD-
250 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN JONES AND WEST CENTRAL
LYMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 250 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Intersection of Highway 83 and White River, or 10 miles north of
White River, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murdo, Vivian, Draper, Westover and Intersection of Highway 83 and
White River.

LAT...LON 4373 10074 4372 10079 4376 10081 4376 10084
      4414 10059 4400 10010 4373 10048 4373 10051
      4374 10052 4374 10055 4375 10055 4377 10059
      4374 10062 4375 10065 4374 10067 4373 10065
      4371 10068 4372 10070 4371 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 216DEG 39KT 4372 10072

TDK