Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Aberdeen, SD

577 
WWUS83 KABR 161447
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
947 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

SDZ268-162300-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0005.170716T1800Z-170717T0200Z/
Upper Cheyenne-
847 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 268...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 268 Upper Cheyenne.

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...15 to 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low relative 
  humidity will produce critical fire weather conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
SD

036 
WWUS83 KABR 162017
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

SDZ268-170200-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170717T0200Z/
Upper Cheyenne-
217 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 268...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 268 Upper Cheyenne.

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low relative 
  humidity will produce critical fire weather conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
SD

962 
WWUS83 KABR 170222
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
922 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

SDZ268-170330-
/O.EXP.KABR.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170717T0200Z/
Upper Cheyenne-
822 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 268...

Conditions have improved across the region, therefore the Red Flag
Warning has been allowed to expire.

$$

Parkin

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 914 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

An area of high pressure currently over southern Saskatchewan will
track southeast across the region tonight through Sunday morning.
The high pressure will shift the winds from the northeast today, to
the southeast on Sunday. A low pressure system approaching the
region from the west will strengthen the pressure gradient Sunday
afternoon, mainly in north central where gusts could exceed 25 mph
at times. With hot conditions and dry air, RH values will likely
fall below 25 percent. Thus fire weather will be a concern Sunday
afternoon, mainly in north central SD.

A low pressure system will slowly cross North Dakota Sunday
night through Monday night. With this CWA squarely within the warm
sector, temperatures on Monday should be very hot with highs
exceeding 95 degrees for most locations. With 925 mb temps above 30C
and good southwesterly mixing winds, highs on Monday could be
warmer. A cold front should bisect the CWA Monday afternoon with
convection developing in North Dakota, or where 700 mb temps are
cooler. Still, with hot surface temps, moderate instability and
good 0-6km bulk shear, some thunderstorms could develop along the
front in this CWA. More widespread convection is possible Monday
night as the EML erodes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The long term may bring a bit more coverage of shower/thunderstorm
action as a "ring of fire" sets up around the northern periphery of
the mid conus mid level ridge. Mid level heights are expected to
gradually abate over the region, which means less capping aloft.
Meanwhile, a sfc frontal boundary will be meandering across the
region through most of the period. This portends better chances
for rain vs what we've seen recently. Temperatures overall should
remain near to maybe a bit above normal for the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for SDZ268.

MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
321 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-160830-
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-
321 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for storms several days during the upcoming
work week. At this time, organized severe weather is not
anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-160830-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-
Faulk-Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
321 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017 /221 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota, north central South Dakota, and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The grassland fire danger index will reach high to very high
category for Sunday, with a south wind gusting as high as 20 to
30mph and afternoon humidity in the 15 to 25 percent range.
Outdoor burning or activities that could lead to fire should be
avoided.

There is a chance for storms several days during the upcoming
work week. At this time, organized severe weather is not
anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Connelly