Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Aberdeen, SD

237 
WWUS83 KABR 282248
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
448 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

MNZ039-046-SDZ273-290000-
/O.EXP.KABR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-171128T2300Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Red River Valley-
448 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 039,
046 AND 273...

Conditions are beginning to improve as temperatures cool and wind
speeds decrease. The Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at
5 PM CST.

$$

Dorn

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1138 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1043 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

Will continue to see breezy and gusty west to northwest winds
across the CWA today, especially for eastern areas and into the
Coteau region. Under sunny skies, temperatures will rise into the
upper 40s to low 50s. Little, if any noteworthy changes to the
grids/forecast up through 00Z this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

High clouds have moved southeast of Aberdeen to Pierre and according
to most guidance will continue to propagate to the southeast and out
of the CWA today. There is also a mid deck still to the west of
Aberdeen, and this may linger into the day but is still not expected
to have a significant impact on the forecast. So the main forecast
concern for the next 48 hours is winds and temperatures. The main
mechanism for winds today will be daytime heating, with pressure
rises/pressure gradient/cold advection currently at or past their
peak. Steep low level lapse rates in BUFKIT support mixed winds
into the 30 to low 40kt range, mainly across our northeast, with
the usual NAM/GFS bias in the degree of mixing. Used a middle of
the road approach when selecting guidance winds for today, which
generally falls just shy of advisory criteria. 925mb temperatures
are still a standard deviation above climo - so blended guidance
highs some 10 to 15 degrees above average is appropriate.

Surface ridge settles just to our south this evening so we will see
favorable radiational conditions for the first half of tonight
before winds shift to the south and the gradient begins to tighten.
By 12Z pressure falls across the western CWA are close to 8mb/6hrs.
We see a surface trof move across the CWA during the day and on the
backside the gradient also remains tight, peaking at 03Z at about
16mb across the state. Mixed winds peak around 50kts across our west
river counties in the afternoon before loss of daytime heating.
Temperatures at 925mb fall about 5C so there is some cold advection,
and there are pressure rises - so winds will continua into the
evening though with less intensity. 925mb temperatures are still a
standard deviation above climo, though with westerly flow and
enhanced mixing we should achieve several degrees higher compared
to Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

While the pattern is active in the extended with multiple shortwaves
and lows, the majority of the period remains dry. Upper ridging will
build in to the plains over the weekend bringing warmer temperatures
in the 40s and 50s. A deep trough over the desert southwest will
attempt to filter east next week, but at this point models indicate
its influence will be minimal over the Dakotas as a weaker northern
jet holds northwest flow over the region. Still, high temps will
likely drop back into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period.
Breezy and gusty west-northwest surface winds this afternoon will
subside by sunset, only to switch to the south tonight and
Wednesday morning and become quite windy and gusty once again.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...TMT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
316 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-290930-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-
Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-
Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
316 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017 /216 AM MST Tue Nov 28 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota, north central South Dakota, and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds, with gusts of 40 to 50mph are expected for
Wednesday, with temperatures also well above average. This will
likely result in another day with the rangeland fire index
reaching the high to very high category.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-290930-
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-
316 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

With gusty northwest winds over 40mph, and above average
temperatures - the rangeland fire index will reach the very high
category today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds, with gusts of 40 to 50mph are expected for
Wednesday, with temperatures also well above average. This will
likely result in another day with the rangeland fire index
reaching the high to very high category.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Connelly