Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

064 
WWUS45 KABQ 122357
WSWABQ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
457 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

...SNOW RETURNS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

.A vigorous low pressure system will track east northeastward 
over southern New Mexico tonight and Tuesday morning before 
exiting eastward Tuesday afternoon. Cold air that arrived with a 
back door cold front this morning will set the stage for a few to 
several inches of snow accumulation, most of which will occur 
across central and western areas tonight into Monday night.
Farther east, snow will be on the lighter side tonight before
intensifying Monday night. However, some light ice accumulation
will be possible tonight into Monday morning along and east of a 
line from Dunken to Tucumcari due to a wintry mix of light 
freezing rain and sleet. As usual, the mountains will receive the
most snow with over a foot possible on higher peaks. For the 
latest road conditions visit nmroads.com or dial 511.

NMZ530>540-131200-
/O.CON.KABQ.WS.W.0006.170213T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
Union County-Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-
Guadalupe County-Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-
De Baca County-Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-
Southwest Chaves County-
457 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 7 inches. Prior to the snow
  accumulation, up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation will
  be possible along and southeast of a line from Dunken to Fort
  Sumner and Tucumcari.

* TIMING...Periods of rain early this evening will change over to
  light snow during the late evening and overnight hours. An
  exception will be across far east central and southeast areas
  where periods of light snow, sleet and freezing rain are
  expected late tonight into Monday morning. Precipitation will
  change over to rain in most places Monday afternoon, before
  falling mostly as snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. A 
  rain snow mix will be possible Tuesday afternoon as 
  precipitation tapers off.

* WINDS...East at 5 to 15 mph tonight, decreasing to 5 to 10 mph
  on Monday. Increasing out of the north at 10 to 25 mph Monday
  into Tuesday, except up to 35 mph across the northeast late
  Monday night and early Tuesday morning. 

* SNOW LEVELS...Temperatures will be cold enough for snow or
  freezing precipitation at all elevations by early Monday
  morning. Snow levels will rise near 5700 feet Monday afternoon
  before lowering back to the surface Monday evening into 
  Tuesday morning.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Roads will become snowpacked and icy. Some
  blowing snow Monday night into Tuesday will reduce the
  visibility and add to the hazardous driving conditions,
  especially across the northeast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for frozen precipitation and heavy snow
means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel
dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep
an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of
an emergency.

&&

$$

NMZ506>508-510>515-518-521>529-131200-
/O.CON.KABQ.WS.W.0006.170213T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-
South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
457 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 to 8 inches...except locally over one
  foot on higher peaks.

* TIMING...Rain and snow this evening will changeover to all snow
  by late tonight, then continue into Tuesday. Rain may mix with
  snow at lower elevations Monday afternoon, before changing over
  to snow again Monday evening. Some additional light snow will be
  possible Tuesday, mainly across the northern mountains,
  northeast highlands and east central highlands.

* WINDS...East and southeast from 10 to 30 mph this evening before
  gradually weakening during the late night hours. Persisting out
  of the east and northeast around 5 to 10 mph Monday, before
  strengthening to 10 to 20 mph out of the north across the
  northern mountains and northeast highlands late Monday night and
  Tuesday. 

* SNOW LEVELS...Temperatures will be cold enough for snow at most
  locations by late tonight. Lifting between 6000 to 8000 feet
  Monday afternoon before falling to valley bottoms again Monday
  evening. 

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Roads will become snowpacked and icy. Periods of
  blowing snow may reduce visibilities over the northern mountains
  and northeast Late Monday night into Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight,  food,
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

NMZ502-504-516-517-519-520-131200-
/O.CON.KABQ.WW.Y.0006.170213T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains-Northwest Highlands-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-
457 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 to 6 inches with locally lighter amounts
  at the lowest elevations of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley.

* TIMING...Rain and snow this evening will changeover to all snow
  late tonight and persist into Monday morning. Precipitation will
  changeover to rain at the lowest elevations Monday afternoon,
  before becoming snow again Monday night into Tuesday morning. 
  Most of the snow accumulation will end by sunrise Tuesday. 

* WINDS...East at 10 to 20 mph tonight, except up to 30 mph below
  canyons opening into the Rio Grande Valley from the east this
  evening. Tapering off by Monday morning, only to strengthen out
  of the north and northeast across the upper Rio Grande Valley 
  Monday night.

* SNOW LEVELS...Temperatures will be cold enough for snow at most
  locations by late tonight. Lifting between 6000 to 8000 feet
  Monday afternoon before falling to valley bottoms again Monday
  evening. 

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Some roads will become snow packed and icy.
  Periods of reduced visibility in snow are also expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities.

&&

$$

44

384 
WWUS45 KABQ 131049
WSWABQ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
349 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

NMZ534>537-131900-
/O.CAN.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KABQ.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
349 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow and sleet, which is in effect until 5 
PM MST Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 to 3 inches with some sleet
  accumulations.  

* TIMING...Today through tonight with diminishing impacts on 
  Tuesday. 

* WINDS...Strengthening northerly winds on Tuesday 10 to 20 mph. 

* SNOW LEVELS...Mix of rain/sleet and snow today becoming mainly
  sleet and snow tonight. Mix of rain and snow on Tuesday.  

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Some roads will become slushy with periods of
  reduced visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow 
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow 
covered roads and limited visibilities.

&&

$$

NMZ538-131200-
/O.CAN.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
Chaves County Plains-
349 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has cancelled the
Winter Storm Warning. 

Temperatures will be too warm for any sort of significant frozen
precipitation impacts across most of the Chaves county plains. 

$$

NMZ530>533-539-540-131900-
/O.CON.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
Union County-Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-
Guadalupe County-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
349 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 3 to 5 inches with locally up
  to 10 inches across the higher terrain of the south central
  mountains. 

* TIMING...Today through tonight with residual impacts on Tuesday
  as the snowfall begin to diminish. 

* WINDS...Northerly winds strengthening late tonight through
  Tuesday. Speeds 15 to 25 mph at times. 

* SNOW LEVELS...Levels will rise to between 5700 to 6700 feet
  today but then lower back to the ground floor tonight and last
  into much of Tuesday. 

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Roads will become snowpacked and icy at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for frozen precipitation and heavy snow
means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel
dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep
an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of
an emergency.

&&

$$

NMZ506>508-510>515-518-521>529-131900-
/O.CON.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-
South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
349 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 4 to 8 inches with as high as
  12 inches across across the highest terrain. 

* TIMING...Today and tonight with diminishing impacts on Tuesday. 

* WINDS...Developing northerly winds 10 to 20 mph along the Front
  Range late tonight into Tuesday...otherwise minimal wind flow. 

* SNOW LEVELS...Levels rising today to around 8000 feet across the
  west and 6500 feet across the east before lowering back to the
  ground floor tonight. 

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Roads will become snowpacked and icy. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight,  food,
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

NMZ502-504-516-517-519-520-131900-
/O.CON.KABQ.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170215T0000Z/
Chuska Mountains-Northwest Highlands-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-
349 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 1 to 3 inches with locally up
  4 inches across the Chuska mountains.

* TIMING...Today and tonight with lessening impacts on Tuesday. 

* WINDS...Speeds less than 10 mph for most of the area. 

* SNOW LEVELS...Snow levels rising to around 7000 feet before
  lowering back to the ground surface all areas tonight. Snow
  levels between 6000 to 7000 feet on Tuesday. 

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Some roads will become snow packed and icy. 
  Periods of reduced visibility in snow are also expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities.

&&

$$
50

579 
WWUS45 KABQ 132332
WSWABQ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
432 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

NMZ530>533-539-540-141200-
/O.EXT.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170214T1200Z/
Union County-Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-
Guadalupe County-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
432 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 1 to 3 inches with the higher
  amounts along and west of a line from Roy to Santa Rosa to Encinoso.

* TIMING...A mixture of rain and snow will changeover to all snow
  this evening, when precipitation will increase in coverage and
  intensity. Periods of snow will linger into late tonight.
  Accumulating snow will taper off around sunrise Tuesday.

* WINDS...Northerly winds strengthening late tonight through 
  Tuesday. Speeds 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph across the 
  northeast at times. 

* SNOW LEVELS...Dropping from around 6500 feet at sunset to the
  lowest elevations by late tonight.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Some roads will become snowpacked and icy,
  especially bridges and overpasses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for frozen precipitation and heavy snow
means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel
dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel, keep
an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of
an emergency.

&&

$$

NMZ506>508-510>515-518-521>529-141200-
/O.EXT.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170214T1200Z/
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-
South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
432 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 1 to 4 inches with locally
  higher amounts on mountain peaks.

* TIMING...A mix of rain and snow at lower elevations will
  changeover to all snow by late evening, as precipitation
  increases in coverage and intensity again. Periods of snow will
  then linger into the late night hours. Accumulating snow should
  end by sunrise Tuesday.

* WINDS...North winds 10 to 20 mph along the Front Range late
  tonight into Tuesday...otherwise minimal wind flow. 

* SNOW LEVELS...Dropping from around 6500 feet at sunset to the
  lowest elevations by late tonight. 

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Roads will become snowpacked and icy, especially
  in the mountains and on bridges and overpasses. Patchy and dense
  fog is expected in the west central and southwest valleys.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight,  food,
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

NMZ502-504-516-517-519-520-141200-
/O.EXT.KABQ.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170214T1200Z/
Chuska Mountains-Northwest Highlands-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-
432 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...Up to 2 additional inches of snow
  accumulation.

* TIMING...Periods of precipitation are expected overnight. A rain
  snow mix at lower elevations this evening will changeover to all
  snow by midnight. Areas of accumulating snow will diminish by
  sunrise.

* WINDS...Speeds less than 10 mph, except for north and northeast
  winds from 10 to 15 mph in the upper Rio Grande Valley during
  the late evening and overnight.

* SNOW LEVELS...Snow levels will drop from around 7000 feet at
  sunset to valley bottoms by late tonight.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Some roads will become snow packed and icy,
  especially bridges and overpasses. Patchy fog is expected in the
  northwest highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities.

&&

$$

NMZ534>537-141200-
/O.EXT.KABQ.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170214T1800Z/
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
432 PM MST Mon Feb 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...Up to 2 additional inches with the heavier
  amounts on the Caprock.

* TIMING...Periods of precipitation are expected tonight. A
  mixture of rain and snow this evening will change over to all
  snow during the late night hours. Some accumulating snow may
  linger into Tuesday morning around Clovis and Portales.

* WINDS...Strengthening northerly winds after midnight should
  reach 15 to 25 mph by Tuesday morning.

* SNOW LEVELS...Dropping from around 6500 feet at sunset to the
  lowest elevations by late tonight.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...Some roads will become slushy with periods of 
  reduced visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities.

&&

$$

44

830 
WWUS45 KABQ 141101
WSWABQ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
401 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

NMZ506>508-510>515-518-521>533-539-540-141215-
/O.CAN.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170214T1200Z/
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-
South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
401 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has cancelled the
Winter Storm Warning. 

While light snow or rain mixed with snow may continue 
intermittently during the morning the potential for any 
significant addiitional accumulations and associated impacts has 
diminished. 

$$

NMZ534>537-141215-
/O.CAN.KABQ.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170214T1800Z/
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
401 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory. 

While light snow or rain mixed with snow may continue 
intermittently during the morning the potential for any 
significant addiitional accumulations and associated impacts has 
diminished.


$$

NMZ502-504-516-517-519-520-141215-
/O.CAN.KABQ.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170214T1200Z/
Chuska Mountains-Northwest Highlands-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-
401 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory. 

While light snow or rain mixed with snow may continue 
intermittently during the morning the potential for any 
significant addiitional accumulations and associated impacts has 
diminished.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
250 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front combined with a potent Pacific low will provide
widespread precipitation to northern and central New Mexico starting
today and lasting through Tuesday. There will be all kinds of precipitation
types with a mix of sleet...snow and rain across the east central
and southeast plains areas later tonight into Monday. The Rio Grande
Valley will experience a mix of rain and snow. Mountain areas will
experience heavier snowfall with amounts up to 20 inches in some
higher locations. Damaging wind is expected to impact portions of the
lower and middle Rio Grande valley as today progresses due to the
cold frontal push from the east. A quieter and warmer weather regime
is expected by midweek but this should be short lived as another
system Pacific system approaches the state next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Decided there was enough confidence to go ahead and issue
warnings/advisories for a large portion of northern and central NM.
Continued to make the start and end times the same with the
highlights running from 5 pm MST today to 5 pm Tuesday. Can certainly
see some western/central areas seeing the highlights go off earlier
than 5 pm MST Tue but trying to make this event as simple as possible
in terms of impact conveyance. Highest confidence for snowfall totals
found across the east slopes of the central mountains and adjacent
high plains where diffluence/upslope and isentropic lift properties
align. The higher elevations of the Gila region also stands to
receive copious amounts of snow due to the upper low translation.
Wind advisory for the far eastern plains will probably get cut
earlier than the 2 pm expiration time.

Lots of forecast challenges exist with the current storm system. Main
ones being snow amounts within the Rio Grande Valley and
precipitation type across the SE and EC plains. Looks like most of
the forecast soundings show more sleet/snow/rain across the SE third
or so. Showed some modest ice accumulations in the ice grid. Main
period of impact is from 6z 13th to 0z 14th. The intense and damaging
wind flow which will impact portions of the Rio Grande Valley today
will diminish some this evening but still looking at some shadow or
downsloping impacts to impact precipitation for a bit.
Eventually...precipitation will fill in and the main impact period
appears to be later tonight into Monday morning before snow levels
rise a bit Monday afternoon. Snow levels will then lower again within
the greater valley area Monday night. Despite some possible
convergence enhanced snowfall across western Bernalillo county,
including the Rio Rancho area, decided to go winter weather advisory
versus warning. Think ground temps will be quite warm and dull the
road impacts some.

Decided to add Santa Fe and Carrizozo zones into the warning
highlights due to updated snow amounts there. Models seem to be
trending the upper Pacific low further north and thus taking the
mean 700 mb temp low pressure core more over our forecast area. The
depth of the current cold frontal push also looks to be pretty
decent. Based on PUB VAD wind profiler...the depth of the cooler
airmass is up to 10,000 feet. This gives better confidence for the
high wind warning event for portions of the Rio Grande Valley as
well. Lastly...snow amounts may be a bit overdone across the lower
elevations by 1 to 2 inches due to the antecedent warm ground but
will just have to see how things play out. Models show some
significant banded precipitation periods with intense snowfall rates
very possible and could overcome the warmer ground temps.

Models all in unison in terms of a drier and warmer trend by middle
of next week. Another unsettled Pacific low pattern is expected by
next weekend. CFSv2 appears to be more and more correct in terms of
its prediction of the latter half of Feb being unsettled.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a couple days with well above normal temperatures, and in many
cases record-breaking highs, major trend reversals are underway as a
backdoor cold front plows southwest across the area and an upper low
approaches from over the northern Baja Peninsula. The end result
will be much colder temperatures, higher humidity and a widespread
wetting event, which will begin in earnest tonight and continue into
early Tuesday. Significant snow accumulation is likely in the
mountains and across the Eastern Highlands, with lesser amounts
across the plains and in valleys. Vent rates will trend down today
compared to yesterday, then continue down Monday and generally be
poor to fair.

The upper low will pull east, away from New Mexico Tuesday with only
a few showers remaining. Otherwise, after a couple days of below
normal temperatures a new warming/drying trend will begin Tuesday as
a ridge builds over the Intermountain West and shifts southeast over
New Mexico by Thursday. Temperatures will be back above normal by
the end of the week and vent rates will start to show some
improvement, but are still forecast to remain mostly poor to fair.

Both the 00z ECMWF and GFS show another wetting system impacting the
area over the weekend, but differ on the details (i.e. closed low
vs. open trough). At this point, relatively high forecaster
confidence on increasing moisture and decreasing temperatures next
weekend, but lower confidence on the extent of wetting
precipitation.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A strong cold front has begun to push into NE NM and will continue to
slide southward across the plains with gusts near 40-45kt possible.
The front will push westward into the Rio Grande Valley, with gusts
near 50kt possible at KABQ. An airport weather warning for winds
will likely be issued later tonight. Additionally, low clouds will
develop across NE NM behind the front with MVFR/IFR cigs possible,
particularly at KLVS due to upslope. Cigs will also gradually lower
across NW NM as top-down moistening occurs. RA or SN showers will
likely develop by mid day Sunday and increase in coverage throughout
the afternoon. Several bands of precipitation may result in IFR or
lower cigs and vsbys in SN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  33  44  29 /  50  70  60  50
Dulce...........................  50  28  41  25 /  50  90  60  40
Cuba............................  48  27  40  23 /  60  90  60  70
Gallup..........................  53  31  42  28 /  80  80  50  50
El Morro........................  51  27  38  25 /  90  90  80  60
Grants..........................  50  26  37  24 /  70  80  80  60
Quemado.........................  54  31  42  26 /  90  90  80  60
Glenwood........................  65  35  48  32 /  90  80  80  70
Chama...........................  45  25  39  20 /  40  90  80  60
Los Alamos......................  48  26  36  25 /  20  90  70  60
Pecos...........................  44  22  35  23 /  70 100  90  90
Cerro/Questa....................  45  25  39  19 /  20  80  70  80
Red River.......................  36  23  34  16 /  30  90  80  90
Angel Fire......................  39  23  35  17 /  40  90  70  90
Taos............................  47  27  39  22 /  20  90  50  70
Mora............................  39  21  37  21 /  60  90  80  90
Espanola........................  53  29  42  26 /  10  80  70  60
Santa Fe........................  47  26  35  24 /  20 100  90  80
Santa Fe Airport................  49  25  36  25 /  20  90  90  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  29  38  29 /  20  90  80  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  29  39  30 /  10  90  70  80
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  32  41  30 /  10  90  70  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  30  42  29 /  10  90  70  70
Los Lunas.......................  57  32  40  28 /  10  90  70  60
Rio Rancho......................  55  30  42  29 /  10  90  70  70
Socorro.........................  61  33  41  30 /  20  90  80  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  25  34  26 /  30 100  80  90
Tijeras.........................  48  26  36  26 /  30 100  80  90
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  23  32  23 /  70  90  80  90
Clines Corners..................  39  21  28  22 /  80  90  80  90
Gran Quivira....................  50  24  37  24 /  70  90  80  90
Carrizozo.......................  53  29  40  27 /  60  80  80  90
Ruidoso.........................  46  24  33  23 /  80  90  80  90
Capulin.........................  41  25  35  22 /  10  90  40  80
Raton...........................  44  25  38  25 /  20  80  50  90
Springer........................  51  25  38  22 /  20  80  70  90
Las Vegas.......................  39  20  32  21 /  60  90  70  90
Clayton.........................  44  26  35  27 /  10  70  70  80
Roy.............................  48  23  34  25 /  30  90  70  80
Conchas.........................  47  28  36  29 /  70  70  80  90
Santa Rosa......................  47  27  34  29 /  70  80  80  90
Tucumcari.......................  49  27  33  29 /  20  60  80  90
Clovis..........................  48  30  32  29 /  20  80  90  90
Portales........................  55  29  35  29 /  20  80  90  80
Fort Sumner.....................  51  29  35  31 /  30  80  90  90
Roswell.........................  55  32  36  32 /  20  80  80  90
Picacho.........................  55  29  37  31 /  40  90  80  90
Elk.............................  48  26  32  26 /  50  80  80  90

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ519-520-524-525.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Tuesday
for the following zones... NMZ506>508-510>515-518-521>540.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
Tuesday for the following zones... NMZ502-504-516-517-519-520.

Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ530-534>536.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
451 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017

NMZ501>540-121200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
451 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag warning is in effect across the eastern plains this
afternoon. Low humidities will combine with strong winds to create
heightened fire danger levels. Strong winds will also impact the
Sangre de Cristos today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Combination of a back door cold front and Pacific low will provide
significant snow accumulations to portions of northern and central
New Mexico starting Sunday to Sunday night and lasting through
Tuesday. Front Range locations are expected to be favored but a
secondary area of critical winter weather will be found across
portions of the east central and southeast plains. Mixed bag
precipitation including sleet and freezing rain will be possible
there late Sunday night into Monday.

A high wind watch has also been posted Sunday for portions of the
lower and middle Rio Grande Valley as well as the upper Tularosa
Basin due to strong to very strong east wind potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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